Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age.

The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.

Convergent and Predictive Associations of Three Measures of Pedophilic Interest.

Pedophilic interest is a central risk factor for sexual offending against children. Multiple measures exist to assess pedophilic interest, and the present study aims to provide validity evidence for three of these measures in a sample of men convicted of sexual offenses. The association between a phallometric test for pedophilic interest, the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interest (SSPI), and the sexual deviance factor of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense (VRS-SO) version was examined in a sample of 261 men who participated in sexual violence reduction services. The association between these measures and sexual recidivism, both as sole predictors and while controlling for static risk, was also assessed. The second aim of the study was to examine the validity of different methods for modeling the distribution of pedophilic interests, using phallometric test scores, based on the findings in recent taxometric research. The measures generally showed a positive and moderate relationship with each other and predicted sexual recidivism. However, the SSPI did not significantly predict sexual recidivism, and when controlling for static risk, only the VRS-SO Sexual Deviance factor significantly predicted this outcome. Modeling phallometric test scores continuously and trichotomously produced significant associations with sexual recidivism; however, only a trichotomous model with two levels remained predictive after controlling for static risk. The results are broadly supportive of measures of pedophilic interest and underscore the importance of appropriately modeling the latent structure of pedophilic interest.

A prospective multisite examination of dynamic sexual violence risk: Extension and update to Olver, Nicholaichuk, Kingston, and Wong (2014).

OBJECTIVE: The present study is an extension and update of Olver, Nicholaichuk, Kingston, and Wong's (2014) prospective multisite examination of sexual violence risk and treatment change on a large federal Canadian sample of 570 treated sexual offenders rated pretreatment and posttreatment on the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO). METHOD: The present study featured the clinical application of a risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the VRS-SO, with recidivism outcome data updated by 4 years to a total of 10.2 years. VRS-SO change scores, representing reductions in sexual violence risk from treatment or other change agents (e.g., aging), were reanalyzed in terms of their associations with community sexual, violent, and general recidivism postrelease. RESULTS: Recidivism base rates increased with the concordant increase in follow-up time. VRS-SO risk scores significantly predicted all recidivism outcomes, whereas change scores were consistently associated with decreases in sexual and violent recidivism after controlling for baseline risk through bivariate (d = -.24 to -.61) and Cox regression survival analyses (eB = .878 to .938). CONCLUSIONS: The results affirm the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk and demonstrate that structured assessments of change, linked to participation in sexual offense specific treatment, to be associated with decreases in future sexual offending as well as other recidivism outcomes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

Construct Validity of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Instrument in a Multisite Sample of Treated Sexual Offenders.

The present study examined the construct validity of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) through an examination of its factor structure and convergence with psychological measures assessing conceptually relevant constructs in a sample of 732 treated incarcerated adult male sex offenders. The VRS-SO was rated prospectively pre- and posttreatment by service providers, and several of the men had completed a psychometric battery at each time point. Prospective Stable 2000 ratings were examined for comparison purposes. Results of exploratory longitudinal factor analysis, performed on VRS-SO pre- and posttreatment dynamic item scores, supported a three-factor model (comparative fit index = .990) and the measurement invariance of the loadings over time. A stringent longitudinal confirmatory factor analysis of the VRS-SO items also supported the three-factor structure. Scores from the three factors (Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity) were correlated in conceptually meaningful ways with scores from the Stable 2000 and selected psychometric measures. The results provide evidence for the construct validity of VRS-SO test scores as providing an index of sex offender risk and, more specifically, that its item content and factor domains measure psychological constructs pertinent to sex offender risk and need.

Predictive Accuracy of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version Risk and Change Scores in Treated Canadian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sexual Offenders.

The present study examined the predictive properties of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal sexual offenders in a combined sample of 1,063 Canadian federally incarcerated men. All men participated in sexual offender treatment programming through the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) at sites across its five regions. The Static-99R was also examined for comparison purposes. In total, 393 of the men were identified as Aboriginal (i.e., First Nations, Métis, Circumpolar) while 670 were non-Aboriginal and primarily White. Aboriginal men scored significantly higher on the Static-99R and VRS-SO and had higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism; however, there were no significant differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal groups on treatment change with both groups demonstrating close to a half-standard deviation of change pre and post treatment. VRS-SO risk and change scores significantly predicted sexual and violent recidivism over fixed 5- and 10-year follow-ups for both racial/ancestral groups. Cox regression survival analyses also demonstrated positive treatment changes to be significantly associated with reductions in sexual and violent recidivism among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men after controlling baseline risk. A series of follow-up Cox regression analyses demonstrated that risk and change score information accounted for much of the observed differences between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal men in rates of sexual recidivism; however, marked group differences persisted in rates of general violent recidivism even after controlling for these covariates. The results support the predictive properties of VRS-SO risk and change scores with treated Canadian Aboriginal sexual offenders.

A psychometric examination of treatment change in a multisite sample of treated Canadian federal sexual offenders.

In the present study, we examined the degree of change and predictive accuracy of a number of well-known psychological self-report measures intended to identify treatment targets for sexual offenders. Participants included 392 federally incarcerated sexual offenders who participated in low, moderate, or high intensity sexual offender programs offered within penitentiaries under the jurisdiction of the Correctional Service of Canada. These men were followed in the community for an average of 5.42 years postrelease. Very small to moderate pretreatment and posttreatment changes were found on measures of cognitive distortions, aggression/hostility, empathy, loneliness, social intimacy, and sex offender acceptance of responsibility. However, pretreatment and posttreatment scores on these measures frequently demonstrated weak and inconsistent relationships to sexual, violent, and general recidivism. In addition, within-treatment change on these measures bore little relationship to outcome. However, when statistically corrected for pretreatment score the relationship of treatment change to outcome frequently improved, particularly on measures of physical aggression and anger, even after controlling for Static-99R score. Clinical and research implications are discussed regarding the assessment and evaluation of change on psychological risk factors in treated sexual offenders.

A multisite examination of sexual violence risk and therapeutic change.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a prospective multisite examination of sexual offender risk and treatment change on a large federal Canadian sample of 676 treated sex offenders followed up for an average of 6.31 years post release. METHOD: The present study featured the clinical application of a risk assessment and treatment planning tool, the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003). The VRS-SO was rated pre- and posttreatment by sex offender treatment providers on the sample of men who were attending institutionally based sex offender programs across the 5 regions of the Correctional Service of Canada. The Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999) was also rated as part of routine services, and the Static-99R was used for substantive analyses. RESULTS: The VRS-SO dynamic factors and the Static-99R demonstrated significant predictive accuracy for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve = .65 to .78). Significant pre-post changes on the VRS-SO dynamic factors were observed, ranging from small to moderate in magnitude (d = 0.22 to 0.62) across low, moderate, and high intensity programs. The change scores, in turn, were associated with decreases in the 3 recidivism outcomes; the majority of relationships examined attained significance after partialing out of pretreatment scores. Cox regression survival analyses, controlling for pretreatment risk, further demonstrated change scores to have associations with postrelease recidivism outcomes to varying degrees. CONCLUSIONS: The results are consistent with the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk and suggest that risk-relevant changes associated with participation in sexual offender treatment are linked to reductions in sexual offender recidivism.

Age, actuarial risk, and long-term recidivism in a national sample of sex offenders.

Age at release has become an increasing focus of study with regard to evaluating risk in the sex offender population and has been repeatedly shown to be an important component of the risk assessment equation. This study constitutes an extension of a study of sex offender outcomes prepared for the Evaluation Branch, Correctional Service of Canada. The entire cohort of 2,401 male federally incarcerated sexual offenders who reached their warrant expiry date (WED) within 1997/1998, 1998/1999, and 1999/2000 fiscal years were reviewed for the study. Sexual and violent reconviction information was obtained from CPIC criminal records over an average of 12.0 years (SD = 1.7) follow-up. This study focused upon the cohort of sex offenders who were 50 years or older at time of release (N = 542). They were stratified according to risk using a brief actuarial scale (BARS) comprising six binary variables. For the most part, older offenders showed low base rates of sexual recidivism regardless of the risk band into which they fell. The exception was a small group of elderly offenders (n = 20) who fell into the highest risk band, and who showed high levels of sexual recidivism. The results of this combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of elderly sexual offenders may have important implications for offender management, particularly in light of the increasing numbers of offenders in Canada who fall into the over 50 age cohort.

Sex offender treatment outcome, actuarial risk, and the aging sex offender in Canadian corrections: a long-term follow-up.

The present study is an examination of sex offender treatment outcome in a large national cohort of Canadian Federally incarcerated sex offenders followed up an average of 11.7 years postrelease. A brief actuarial risk scale (BARS), which predicted sexual and violent recidivism, was created for the purposes of the present study to control for risk-related differences between treated and untreated offenders. In total, 732 offenders were identified as having completed (n = 625) or not attended (n = 107) a sex offender treatment program and for whom sufficient information was available to complete the scale. Controlling for risk and individual differences in follow-up time using Cox regression survival analyses and an 8-year fixed follow-up period, treated sex offenders demonstrated significantly lower rates of violent, but not sexual, recidivism. When the treated and untreated groups were stratified by risk level, significant differences were observed only among moderate or high risk offenders. Some significant group differences also emerged on indicators of recidivism severity, with treated offenders demonstrating slower times to sexual reoffense and lower scores on a quantified metric of sexual and violent recidivism severity after controlling for risk. Differences in recidivism base rates between treated and untreated offenders were also larger in magnitude for younger offenders (i.e., under age 50 at release), than for older offenders; however, interactions between age and treatment were not found. The findings are consistent with the risk principle and have possible implications regarding the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk.

Outcome evaluation of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program.

The treatment outcome of a high-intensity inpatient sex offender treatment program was evaluated by comparing the sexual recidivism rates of 472 treated and 282 untreated sex offenders. The program is designed for moderate- to high-risk sex offenders and follows the principles of effective correctional treatment. The current investigation is an extension of an earlier study (Nicholaichuk et al., 2000) with the addition of 176 participants, an extra 4 years follow-up, and the use of Cox regression survival analysis to control for three potentially confounding variables: age of release, sexual offending history, and length of follow-up. Treated offenders sexually recidivated significantly less than the comparison group over nearly 20 years of follow-up, even after controlling for the aforementioned variables. The substantive findings suggest that treatment adhering to the what works principles can reduce long-term sexual recidivism for a moderate- to high-risk group of sex offenders.