RESUMO
In this study, the measured accelerations of a single smartphone were used to provide an earthquake early warning system. In the presented system, after the smartphone is triggered, the triggering event is then classified as an earthquake event or not. Once an earthquake event is detected, the peak ground acceleration is then predicted every second until 10 s after the trigger. These predictions are made by the neural network classifier and predictor embedded in the smartphone, and an alert can be issued if a large peak ground acceleration is predicted. The proposed system is unique among approaches that use crowdsourcing ideas for earthquake early warning because the proposed system provides on-site earthquake early warning. In general, the accuracy rates of the earthquake classifications and peak ground acceleration predictions of the system were quite high according to the results of large amounts of earthquake and non-earthquake data. More specifically, according to said earthquake data, 96.9% of the issued alerts would be correct and 61.9% of the earthquakes that exceeded the threshold would have resulted in an alert being issued before the arrival of the peak ground acceleration. Among the false negative cases, approximate 97.8% would occur because of negative lead time. Using the shake table tests of worldwide and Meinong earthquake datasets, the proposed approach is confirmed to be quite promising.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are two pathotypes of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with unique pathology, risk factors and significant morbidity. AIM: To estimate incidence and identify IBD risk factors in a US military population, a healthy subset of the US population, using information from the Millennium Cohort Study. METHODS: Incident IBD was identified from medical encounters from 2001 to 2009 or by self-report. Our primary risk factor of interest, infectious gastroenteritis, was identified from medical encounters and self-reported post-deployment health assessments. Other potential risk factors were assessed using self-reported survey responses and military personnel files. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: We estimated 23.2 and 21.9 diagnoses per 100 000 person-years, respectively, for CD and UC. For CD, significant risk factors included [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 95% confidence interval]: current smoking (aHR: 2.7, 1.4-5.1), two life stressors (aHR: 2.8, 1.4-5.6) and prior irritable bowel syndrome (aHR: 4.7, 1.5-15.2). There was no significant association with prior infectious gastroenteritis. There was an apparent dose-response relationship between UC risk and an increasing number of life stressors. In addition, antecedent infectious gastroenteritis was associated with almost a three-fold increase in UC risk (aHR: 2.9, 1.4-6.0). Moderate alcohol consumption (aHR: 0.4, 0.2-0.6) was associated with lower UC risk. CONCLUSIONS: Stressful conditions and the high risk of infectious gastroenteritis in deployment operations may play a role in the development of IBD in military populations. However, observed differences in risk factors for UC and CD warrant further investigation.
