Cost-effectiveness of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhea: importance of dosing schedule, vaccine sentiment, targeting strategy, and duration of protection.

BACKGROUND: Observational evidence suggests the 4CMenB meningococcal vaccine may partially protect against gonorrhea, with one dose being two-thirds as protective as two. We examined the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England, with one- or two-dose primary vaccination. METHODS: Integrated transmission-dynamic health-economic modeling explored the effects of targeting strategy, first- and second-dose uptake levels, and duration of vaccine protection, using observational estimates of vaccine protection. RESULTS: Vaccination with one or two primary doses is always cost-saving, irrespective of uptake, although vaccine sentiment is an important determinant of impact and cost-effectiveness. The most impactful and cost-effective targeting is offering "Vaccination-according-to-Risk" (VaR), to all patients with gonorrhea plus those reporting high numbers of sexual partners. If VaR is not feasible to implement then the more-restrictive strategy of "Vaccination-on-Diagnosis" (VoD) with gonorrhea is cost-effective, but much less impactful. Under conservative assumptions, VaR(2-dose) saves £7.62M(95%CrI:1.15-17.52) and gains 81.41(28.67-164.23) QALYs over 10 years; VoD(2-dose) saves £3.40M(0.48-7.71) and gains 41.26(17.52-78.25) QALYs versus no vaccination. Optimistic versus pessimistic vaccine-sentiment assumptions increase net benefits by ∼30%(VoD) or ∼60%(VaR). CONCLUSIONS: At UK costs, targeted 4CMenB vaccination of MSM gains QALYs and is cost-saving at any uptake level. Promoting uptake maximizes benefits and is an important role for behavioral science.

Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.