A novel benchmark for COVID-19 pandemic testing effectiveness enables the accurate prediction of new Intensive Care Unit admissions.

The positivity rate of testing is currently used both as a benchmark of testing adequacy and for assessing the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, since the former is a prerequisite for the latter, its interpretation is often conflicting. We propose as a benchmark for COVID-19 testing effectiveness a new metric, termed 'Severity Detection Rate' (SDR), that represents the daily needs for new Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, per 100 cases detected (t - i) days ago, per 10,000 tests performed (t - i) days ago. Based on the announced COVID-19 monitoring data in Greece from May 2020 until August 2021, we show that beyond a certain threshold of daily tests, SDR reaches a plateau of very low variability that begins to reflect testing adequacy. Due to the stabilization of SDR, it was possible to predict with great accuracy the daily needs for new ICU admissions, 12 days ahead of each testing data point, over a period of 10 months, with Pearson r = 0.98 (p = 10-197), RMSE = 7.16. We strongly believe that this metric will help guide the timely decisions of both scientists and government officials to tackle pandemic spread and prevent ICU overload by setting effective testing requirements for accurate pandemic monitoring. We propose further study of this novel metric with data from more countries to confirm the validity of the current findings.

The frequency of combined IFITM3 haplotype involving the reference alleles of both rs12252 and rs34481144 is in line with COVID-19 standardized mortality ratio of ethnic groups in England.

Evidence was brought forward in England and the USA that Black, Asian, Latino and Minority Ethnic people exhibit higher mortality risk from COVID-19 than White people. While socioeconomic factors were suggested to contribute to this trend, they arguably do not explain the range of the differences observed, allowing for possible genetic implications. Almost concurrently, the analysis of a cohort in Chinese COVID-19 patients proposed an association between the severity of the disease and the presence of the minor allele of rs12252 of the Interferon-induced transmembrane protein 3 (IFITM3) gene. This SNP, together with rs34481144, are the two most studied polymorphisms of IFITM3 and have been associated in the past with increased severity in Influenza, Dengue, Ebola, and HIV viruses. IFITM3 is an immune effector protein that is pivotal for the restriction of viral replication, but also for the regulation of cytokine production. Following up on these two developments in the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the present study investigates a possible association between the differences in mortality of ethnic groups in England and the combined haplotypes of rs12252 and rs34481144. The respective allele frequencies were collected for 26 populations from the 1000 Genomes Project and subgroups were pooled wherever possible to create correspondences with ethnic groups in England. A significant correlation (r = 0.9687, p = 0.0003) and a striking agreement was observed between the reported Standardized Mortality Ratios and the frequency of the combined haplotype of both reference alleles, suggesting that the combination of the reference alleles of the specific SNPs may be implicated in more severe outcomes of COVID-19. This study calls for further focus on the role of IFITM3 variants in the mechanism of cellular invasion of SARS-CoV-2, their impact in COVID-19 severity and their possible implications in vaccination efficacy.

Disjoint combinations profiling (DCP): a new method for the prediction of antibody CDR conformation from sequence.

The accurate prediction of the conformation of Complementarity-Determining Regions (CDRs) is important in modelling antibodies for protein engineering applications. Specifically, the Canonical paradigm has proved successful in predicting the CDR conformation in antibody variable regions. It relies on canonical templates which detail allowed residues at key positions in the variable region framework or in the CDR itself for 5 of the 6 CDRs. While no templates have as yet been defined for the hypervariable CDR-H3, instead, reliable sequence rules have been devised for predicting the base of the CDR-H3 loop. Here a new method termed Disjoint Combinations Profiling (DCP) is presented, which contributes a considerable advance in the prediction of CDR conformations. This novel method is explained and compared with canonical templates and sequence rules in a 3-way blind prediction. DCP achieved 93% accuracy over 951 blind predictions and showed an improvement in cumulative accuracy compared to predictions with canonical templates or sequence rules. In addition to its overall improvement in prediction accuracy, it is suggested that DCP is open to better implementations in the future and that it can improve as more antibody structures are deposited in the databank. In contrast, it is argued that canonical templates and sequence rules may have reached their peak.

A complete, multi-level conformational clustering of antibody complementarity-determining regions.

Classification of antibody complementarity-determining region (CDR) conformations is an important step that drives antibody modelling and engineering, prediction from sequence, directed mutagenesis and induced-fit studies, and allows inferences on sequence-to-structure relations. Most of the previous work performed conformational clustering on a reduced set of structures or after application of various structure pre-filtering criteria. In this study, it was judged that a clustering of every available CDR conformation would produce a complete and redundant repertoire, increase the number of sequence examples and allow better decisions on structure validity in the future. In order to cope with the potential increase in data noise, a first-level statistical clustering was performed using structure superposition Root-Mean-Square Deviation (RMSD) as a distance-criterion, coupled with second- and third-level clustering that employed Ramachandran regions for a deeper qualitative classification. The classification of a total of 12,712 CDR conformations is thus presented, along with rich annotation and cluster descriptions, and the results are compared to previous major studies. The present repertoire has procured an improved image of our current CDR Knowledge-Base, with a novel nesting of conformational sensitivity and specificity that can serve as a systematic framework for improved prediction from sequence as well as a number of future studies that would aid in knowledge-based antibody engineering such as humanisation.