Groundwater oxygen isotope anomaly before the M6.6 Tottori earthquake in Southwest Japan.

Geochemical monitoring of groundwater in seismically-active regions has been carried out since 1970s. Precursors were well documented, but often criticized for anecdotal or fragmentary signals, and for lacking a clear physico-chemical explanation for these anomalies. Here we report - as potential seismic precursor - oxygen isotopic ratio anomalies of +0.24‰ relative to the local background measured in groundwater, a few months before the Tottori earthquake (M 6.6) in Southwest Japan. Samples were deep groundwater located 5 km west of the epicenter, packed in bottles and distributed as drinking water between September 2015 and July 2017, a time frame which covers the pre- and post-event. Small but substantial increase of 0.07‰ was observed soon after the earthquake. Laboratory crushing experiments of aquifer rock aimed to simulating rock deformation under strain and tensile stresses were carried out. Measured helium degassing from the rock and 18O-shift suggest that the co-seismic oxygen anomalies are directly related to volumetric strain changes. The findings provide a plausible physico-chemical basis to explain geochemical anomalies in water and may be useful in future earthquake prediction research.

Ten-year helium anomaly prior to the 2014 Mt Ontake eruption.

Mt Ontake in central Japan suddenly erupted on 27(th) September 2014, killing 57 people with 6 still missing. It was a hydro-volcanic eruption and new magmatic material was not detected. There were no precursor signals such as seismicity and edifice inflation. It is difficult to predict hydro-volcanic eruptions because they are local phenomena that only affect a limited area surrounding the explosive vent. Here we report a long-term helium anomaly measured in hot springs close to the central cone. Helium-3 is the most sensitive tracer of magmatic volatiles. We have conducted spatial surveys around the volcano at once per few years since November 1981. The (3)He/(4)He ratios of the closest site to the cone stayed constant until June 2000 and increased significantly from June 2003 to November 2014, while those of distant sites showed no valuable change. These observations suggest a recent re-activation of Mt Ontake and that helium-3 enhancement may have been a precursor of the 2014 eruption. We show that the eruption was ultimately caused by the increased input of magmatic volatiles over a ten-year period which resulted in the slow pressurization of the volcanic conduit leading to the hydro-volcanic event in September 2014.

Helium anomalies suggest a fluid pathway from mantle to trench during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Geophysical evidence suggests that fluids along fault planes have an important role in generating earthquakes; however, the nature of these fluids has not been well defined. The 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ruptured the interface between the subducting Pacific plate and the overlying Okhotsk plate. Here we report a sharp increase in mantle-derived helium in bottom seawater near the rupture zone 1 month after the earthquake. The timing and location indicate that fluids were released from the mantle on the seafloor along the plate interface. The movement of the fluids was rapid, with a velocity of ~4 km per day and an uncertainty factor of four. This rate is much faster than what would be expected from pressure-gradient propagation, suggesting that over-pressurized fluid is discharged along the plate interface.