Correlates of COVID-19 vaccination intentions and opinions about mandates among four groups of adults in South Africa with distinct vaccine intentions: evidence from a large national survey.

INTRODUCTION: Despite a high number of recorded COVID-19 infections and deaths in South Africa, COVID-19 vaccine coverage remained low in March 2022, ten months into the national vaccine roll-out. This study provides evidence on the correlates of vaccine intentions, attitudes towards vaccination and opinions about mandates. METHODS: We used data from the second COVID-19 Vaccine Survey (CVACS), a telephone survey conducted February-March 2022 among 3,608 South African adults who self-reported not being vaccinated against COVID-19. The survey instrument was designed in consultation with government, policymakers, and civil society; and segmented the sample into four distinct groups with different vaccine intentions (synonymous with vaccine hesitancy levels). Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used to examine the sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes and behaviours associated with the different vaccination intentions groups. Thematic coding of responses to open-ended questions elicited insights on reasons for not being vaccinated and attitudes towards mandates. RESULTS: Intentions to get vaccinated were greater among individuals with lower socio-economic status (Mann-Whitney Z = -11.3, p < 0.001); those believing the vaccine protects against death (Kruskal-Wallis Χ2 = 494, p < 0.001); and those who perceived themselves at risk of COVID-19-related illness (Χ2 = 126, p < 0.01). Vaccine intentions were lower among individuals who believed that the vaccine causes death (Χ2 = 163, p < 0.001); believed that the vaccine is unsafe for the babies of pregnant/breastfeeding mothers, or the chronically ill (Χ2 = 123, p < 0.01); those not trusting government health information about COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccine (Kendall's τ = -0.41, p < 0.01); and those in opposition to mandates (τ = 0.35, p < 0.001). Only 25% supported mandates, despite 48% thinking mandates would work well, with 54% citing individual rights as their main reason for mandate opposition. CONCLUSION: The profile of individuals not vaccinated against COVID-19 as of March 2022 varied markedly by self-reported vaccination intentions, underscoring the importance of tailored demand-creation efforts. This paper highlights several factors which differ significantly across these groups. These findings could inform the design of future vaccination campaigns, potentially increasing their likelihood of success. This is an important policy objective given widespread vaccine hesitancy, and further work is required on this topic. Mandates remain an option to increase coverage but need to be carefully considered given extensive opposition.

Predictors of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among adults in South Africa: multimethod evidence from a population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains low in many low and middle-income countries despite widespread access. To understand the dynamic decision-making process around vaccination and provide evidence for future vaccine promotion campaigns, we identified predictors of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among South African adults, including those who did not believe in the vaccine's safety or efficacy. METHODS: Data from two longitudinal telephone surveys in late 2021 and early 2022 of unvaccinated South African adults were used to model COVID-19 uptake. Predictors of interest informed by the theory of planned behaviour included vaccine attitudes and beliefs, social norms, perceived behavioural control and vaccine intentions. Responses to open-ended questions provided insights into key reasons for getting vaccinated. RESULTS: Among panel participants (n=1772), 19% reported being vaccinated between Survey 1 and Survey 2. Vaccine uptake was greater among participants who reported wanting to get vaccinated 'as soon as possible' (+27 percentage points, p<0.01). Vaccine uptake was greater among participants who believed that the vaccine is effective in preventing COVID-19 infection and/or death (+12 percentage points, p<0.01) and lower among those who believed that the vaccine is unsafe (-9 percentage points, p<0.01). Among participants who did not believe the vaccine is safe, living with someone already vaccinated against COVID-19 increased vaccine uptake (+6 percentage points, p<0.05). At Survey 1, the intention to get vaccinated as soon as possible was positively associated with perceived risk of illness from COVID-19 (+9.2 percentage points, p<0.05), the belief that most people in their area had been vaccinated (+7.0 percentage points, p<0.05) and living with someone already vaccinated against COVID-19 (+6.6 percentage points, p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Study findings underscore the predictive power of intentions and of beliefs about disease risk, vaccine safety and vaccine efficacy. Social proof interventions hold promise for increasing vaccination intentions and overcoming concerns about vaccine safety.