A shift from cattle to camel and goat farming can sustain milk production with lower inputs and emissions in north sub-Saharan Africa's drylands.

Climate change is increasingly putting milk production from cattle-based dairy systems in north sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA) under stress, threatening livelihoods and food security. Here we combine livestock heat stress frequency, dry matter feed production and water accessibility data to understand where environmental changes in NSSA's drylands are jeopardizing cattle milk production. We show that environmental conditions worsened for ∼17% of the study area. Increasing goat and camel populations by ∼14% (∼7.7 million) and ∼10% (∼1.2 million), respectively, while reducing the dairy cattle population by ∼24% (∼5.9 million), could result in ∼0.14 Mt (+5.7%) higher milk production, lower water (-1,683.6 million m3, -15.3%) and feed resource (-404.3 Mt, -11.2%) demand-and lower dairy emissions by ∼1,224.6 MtCO2e (-7.9%). Shifting herd composition from cattle towards the inclusion of, or replacement with, goats and camels can secure milk production and support NSSA's dairy production resilience against climate change.

Heat stress will detrimentally impact future livestock production in East Africa.

Climate change-induced increases in temperature and humidity are predicted to impact East African food systems, but the extent to which heat stress negatively affects livestock production in this region is poorly understood. Here we use ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that the frequency of 'Severe/Danger' heat events for dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats, swine and poultry significantly increased from 1981 to 2010. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 by the coordinated regional-climate downscaling experiment for Africa (CORDEX-AFRICA)), we show that the frequency of dangerous heat-stress conditions and the average number of consecutive days with heat stress events will significantly increase, particularly for swine and poultry. Our assessment suggests that 4-19% of livestock production occurs in areas where dangerous heat stress events are likely to increase in frequency from 2071 to 2100. With demand for animal products predicted to grow in East Africa, production-specific heat-stress mitigation measures and breeding programmes for increasing heat tolerance are urgently needed for future livestock sector productivity-and future food security-in East Africa.