Sensitivity of northwest Australian tropical cyclone activity to ITCZ migration since 500 CE.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form in association with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and thus, its positioning has implications for global TC activity. While the poleward extent of the ITCZ has varied markedly over past centuries, the sensitivity with which TCs responded remains poorly understood from the proxy record, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present a high-resolution, composite stalagmite record of ITCZ migrations over tropical Australia for the past 1500 years. When integrated with a TC reconstruction from the Australian subtropics, this time series, along with downscaled climate model simulations, provides an unprecedented examination of the dependence of subtropical TC activity on meridional shifts in the ITCZ. TCs tracked the ITCZ at multidecadal to centennial scales, with a more southward position enhancing TC-derived rainfall in the subtropics. TCs may play an increasingly important role in Western Australia's moisture budgets as subtropical aridity increases due to anthropogenic warming.

Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.

Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones--a review and implications for hazard assessment.

Records of prehistoric tropical cyclones occur in the form of ridges of coral rubble, sand, shell, sand and shell, and pumice; erosional terraces in raised gravel beaches; barrier washover deposits; and, sediments deposited in the shallow offshore marine environment. Other less well-documented records occur as variations in isotopic ratios within speleothems and possibly tree rings, and changes in pollen records resulting from introduction of new species after forest disturbance due to cyclonic winds. As yet, such records have not been identified beyond 5500 years of age. Recent palaeotempestological studies in the United States and northern Australia have highlighted that the frequency and magnitude of these natural hazards do not remain constant over time, and there are periods when cyclogenesis is enhanced, and others of relative quiescence. Recognition of such regime changes, or non-stationarity in the long-term record, is important for risk assessments of this hazard. Until now however, few if any risk assessments have incorporated data from the long-term record of tropical cyclones, and instead have relied on generally short instrumented historical records. The longer-term records suggest that such an approach may miscalculate the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability risk to coastal communities from future tropical cyclones.