COVID mortality in India: National survey data and health facility deaths.

India's national COVID death totals remain undetermined. Using an independent nationally representative survey of 0.14 million (M) adults, we compared COVID mortality during the 2020 and 2021 viral waves to expected all-cause mortality. COVID constituted 29% (95%CI 28-31%) of deaths from June 2020-July 2021, corresponding to 3.2M (3.1-3.4) deaths, of which 2.7M (2.6-2.9) occurred in April-July 2021 (when COVID doubled all-cause mortality). A sub-survey of 57,000 adults showed similar temporal increases in mortality with COVID and non-COVID deaths peaking similarly. Two government data sources found that, when compared to pre-pandemic periods, all-cause mortality was 27% (23-32%) higher in 0.2M health facilities and 26% (21-31%) higher in civil registration deaths in ten states; both increases occurred mostly in 2021. The analyses find that India's cumulative COVID deaths by September 2021 were 6-7 times higher than reported officially.

Representative estimates of COVID-19 infection fatality rates from four locations in India: cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific mortality risk among all SARS-CoV-2 infections in four settings in India, a major lower-middle-income country and to compare age trends in mortality with similar estimates in high-income countries. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: India, multiple regions representing combined population >150 million. PARTICIPANTS: Aggregate infection counts were drawn from four large population-representative prevalence/seroprevalence surveys. Data on corresponding number of deaths were drawn from official government reports of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 deaths. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was age-specific and sex-specific infection fatality rate (IFR), estimated as the number of confirmed deaths per infection. The secondary outcome was the slope of the IFR-by-age function, representing increased risk associated with age. RESULTS: Among males aged 50-89, measured IFR was 0.12% in Karnataka (95% CI 0.09% to 0.15%), 0.42% in Tamil Nadu (95% CI 0.39% to 0.45%), 0.53% in Mumbai (95% CI 0.52% to 0.54%) and an imprecise 5.64% (95% CI 0% to 11.16%) among migrants returning to Bihar. Estimated IFR was approximately twice as high for males as for females, heterogeneous across contexts and rose less dramatically at older ages compared with similar studies in high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimated age-specific IFRs during the first wave varied substantially across India. While estimated IFRs in Mumbai, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu were considerably lower than comparable estimates from high-income countries, adjustment for under-reporting based on crude estimates of excess mortality puts them almost exactly equal with higher-income country benchmarks. In a marginalised migrant population, estimated IFRs were much higher than in other contexts around the world. Estimated IFRs suggest that the elderly in India are at an advantage relative to peers in high-income countries. Our findings suggest that the standard estimation approach may substantially underestimate IFR in low-income settings due to under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and that COVID-19 IFRs may be similar in low-income and high-income settings.

COVID-19 mortality effects of underlying health conditions in India: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To model how known COVID-19 comorbidities affect mortality rates and the age distribution of mortality in a large lower-middle-income country (India), and to identify which health conditions drive differences with high-income countries. DESIGN: Modelling study. SETTING: England and India. PARTICIPANTS: Individual data were obtained from the fourth round of the District Level Household Survey and Annual Health Survey in India, and aggregate data were obtained from the Health Survey for England and the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors and Injuries Studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the modelled age-specific mortality in each country due to each COVID-19 mortality risk factor (diabetes, hypertension, obesity and respiratory illness, among others). The change in overall mortality and in the share of deaths under age 60 from the combination of risk factors was estimated in each country. RESULTS: Relative to England, Indians have higher rates of diabetes (10.6% vs 8.5%) and chronic respiratory disease (4.8% vs 2.5%), and lower rates of obesity (4.4% vs 27.9%), chronic heart disease (4.4% vs 5.9%) and cancer (0.3% vs 2.8%). Population COVID-19 mortality in India, relative to England, is most increased by uncontrolled diabetes (+5.67%) and chronic respiratory disease (+1.88%), and most reduced by obesity (-5.47%), cancer (-3.65%) and chronic heart disease (-1.20%). Comorbidities were associated with a 6.26% lower risk of mortality in India compared with England. Demographics and population health explain a third of the difference in share of deaths under age 60 between the two countries. CONCLUSIONS: Known COVID-19 health risk factors are not expected to have a large effect on mortality or its age distribution in India relative to England. The high share of COVID-19 deaths from people under age 60 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains unexplained. Understanding the mortality risk associated with health conditions prevalent in LMICs, such as malnutrition and HIV/AIDS, is essential for understanding differential mortality.

Early clinical outcomes in children enrolled in human immunodeficiency virus infection care and treatment in lesotho.

BACKGROUND: Children are largely underrepresented among those accessing treatment of HIV infection in Africa. Reported outcomes of children enrolled in national care and treatment programs are needed to inform the widespread scale-up of pediatric HIV care in resource-limited settings. METHODS: The objective of this article is to report on the early outcomes of a pediatric HIV infection care and treatment program in Lesotho during its first 14 months of operation. Clinical protocols are described, and characteristics and outcomes of the first cohort of children enrolled in care are reported, derived from a retrospective review of medical records. RESULTS: In the program's first 14 months, 1566 children and adolescents aged between 0 and 16 years were evaluated for HIV, with 567 (36%) confirmed to be infected. Of infected patients, 61% presented with advanced or severe symptoms of HIV disease and 65% presented with CD4 profiles consistent with advanced or severe immunodeficiency, based on World Health Organization 2006 guidelines. Two hundred and eighty four children received highly active antiretroviral therapy. The mortality rate was 18.6 deaths per 100 patient years of follow-up. Ninety-nine percent of deaths occurred within 90 days of enrollment. Deceased patients were significantly younger, had higher rates of stunting and wasting, and were more likely to present with low CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Highly active antiretroviral therapy was well tolerated, but the early mortality rate was high despite concurrent management of HIV and comorbidities. Given that hundreds of thousands of children remain without access to HIV care, renewed efforts are needed to reach this underserved population.