Designing for Ambiguity in Visual Analytics: Lessons from Risk Assessment and Prediction.

Ambiguity is pervasive in the complex sensemaking domains of risk assessment and prediction but there remains little research on how to design visual analytics tools to accommodate it. We report on findings from a qualitative study based on a conceptual framework of sensemaking processes to investigate how both new visual analytics designs and existing tools, primarily data tables, support the cognitive work demanded in avalanche forecasting. While both systems yielded similar analytic outcomes we observed differences in ambiguous sensemaking and the analytic actions either afforded. Our findings challenge conventional visualization design guidance in both perceptual and interaction design, highlighting the need for data interfaces that encourage reflection, provoke alternative interpretations, and support the inherently ambiguous nature of sensemaking in this critical application. We review how different visual and interactive forms support or impede analytic processes and introduce "gisting" as a significant yet unexplored analytic action for visual analytics research. We conclude with design implications for enabling ambiguity in visual analytics tools to scaffold sensemaking in risk assessment.

Identifying Visualization Opportunities to Help Architects Manage the Complexity of Building Codes.

We report a study investigating the viability of using interactive visualizations to aid architectural design with building codes. While visualizations have been used to support general architectural design exploration, existing computational solutions treat building codes as separate from, rather than part of, the design process, creating challenges for architects. Through a series of participatory design studies with professional architects, we found that interactive visualizations have promising potential to aid design exploration and sensemaking in early stages of architectural design by providing feedback about potential allowances and consequences of design decisions. However, implementing a visualization system necessitates addressing the complexity and ambiguity inherent in building codes. To tackle these challenges, we propose various user-driven knowledge management mechanisms for integrating, negotiating, interpreting, and documenting building code rules.

Visual Analytics: A Method to Explore Natural Histories of Oral Epithelial Dysplasia.

Risk assessment and follow-up of oral potentially malignant disorders in patients with mild or moderate oral epithelial dysplasia is an ongoing challenge for improved oral cancer prevention. Part of the challenge is a lack of understanding of how observable features of such dysplasia, gathered as data by clinicians during follow-up, relate to underlying biological processes driving progression. Current research is at an exploratory phase where the precise questions to ask are not known. While traditional statistical and the newer machine learning and artificial intelligence methods are effective in well-defined problem spaces with large datasets, these are not the circumstances we face currently. We argue that the field is in need of exploratory methods that can better integrate clinical and scientific knowledge into analysis to iteratively generate viable hypotheses. In this perspective, we propose that visual analytics presents a set of methods well-suited to these needs. We illustrate how visual analytics excels at generating viable research hypotheses by describing our experiences using visual analytics to explore temporal shifts in the clinical presentation of epithelial dysplasia. Visual analytics complements existing methods and fulfills a critical and at-present neglected need in the formative stages of inquiry we are facing.

Effectiveness and safety of the tri-iodothyronine analogue Triac in children and adults with MCT8 deficiency: an international, single-arm, open-label, phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Deficiency of the thyroid hormone transporter monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8) causes severe intellectual and motor disability and high serum tri-iodothyronine (T3) concentrations (Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome). This chronic thyrotoxicosis leads to progressive deterioration in bodyweight, tachycardia, and muscle wasting, predisposing affected individuals to substantial morbidity and mortality. Treatment that safely alleviates peripheral thyrotoxicosis and reverses cerebral hypothyroidism is not yet available. We aimed to investigate the effects of treatment with the T3 analogue Triac (3,3',5-tri-iodothyroacetic acid, or tiratricol), in patients with MCT8 deficiency. METHODS: In this investigator-initiated, multicentre, open-label, single-arm, phase 2, pragmatic trial, we investigated the effectiveness and safety of oral Triac in male paediatric and adult patients with MCT8 deficiency in eight countries in Europe and one site in South Africa. Triac was administered in a predefined escalating dose schedule-after the initial dose of once-daily 350 µg Triac, the daily dose was increased progressively in 350 µg increments, with the goal of attaining serum total T3 concentrations within the target range of 1·4-2·5 nmol/L. We assessed changes in several clinical and biochemical signs of hyperthyroidism between baseline and 12 months of treatment. The prespecified primary endpoint was the change in serum T3 concentrations from baseline to month 12. The co-primary endpoints were changes in concentrations of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free and total thyroxine (T4), and total reverse T3 from baseline to month 12. These analyses were done in patients who received at least one dose of Triac and had at least one post-baseline evaluation of serum throid function. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02060474. FINDINGS: Between Oct 15, 2014, and June 1, 2017, we screened 50 patients, all of whom were eligible. Of these patients, four (8%) patients decided not to participate because of travel commitments. 46 (92%) patients were therefore enrolled in the trial to receive Triac (median age 7·1 years [range 0·8-66·8]). 45 (98%) participants received Triac and had at least one follow-up measurement of thyroid function and thus were included in the analyses of the primary endpoints. Of these 45 patients, five did not complete the trial (two patients withdrew [travel burden, severe pre-existing comorbidity], one was lost to follow-up, one developed of Graves disease, and one died of sepsis). Patients required a mean dose of 38.3 µg/kg of bodyweight (range 6·4-84·3) to attain T3 concentrations within the target range. Serum T3 concentration decreased from 4·97 nmol/L (SD 1·55) at baseline to 1·82 nmol/L (0·69) at month 12 (mean decrease 3·15 nmol/L, 95% CI 2·68-3·62; p<0·0001), while serum TSH concentrations decreased from 2·91 mU/L (SD 1·68) to 1·02 mU/L (1·14; mean decrease 1·89 mU/L, 1·39-2·39; p<0·0001) and serum free T4 concentrations decreased from 9·5 pmol/L (SD 2·5) to 3·4 (1·6; mean decrease 6·1 pmol/L (5·4-6·8; p<0·0001). Additionally, serum total T4 concentrations decreased by 31·6 nmol/L (28·0-35·2; p<0·0001) and reverse T3 by 0·08 nmol/L (0·05-0·10; p<0·0001). Seven treatment-related adverse events (transiently increased perspiration or irritability) occurred in six (13%) patients. 26 serious adverse events that were considered unrelated to treatment occurred in 18 (39%) patients (mostly hospital admissions because of infections). One patient died from pulmonary sepsis leading to multi-organ failure, which was unrelated to Triac treatment. INTERPRETATION: Key features of peripheral thyrotoxicosis were alleviated in paediatric and adult patients with MCT8 deficiency who were treated with Triac. Triac seems a reasonable treatment strategy to ameliorate the consequences of untreated peripheral thyrotoxicosis in patients with MCT8 deficiency. FUNDING: Dutch Scientific Organization, Sherman Foundation, NeMO Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Centre, Toulouse University Hospital, and Una Vita Rara ONLUS.

Part D implementation: how did health plans fare? A conversation with Stan Nowak, founder, president, and chief executive officer of Silverlink Communications. Interview by William Atkinson.

Medicare part D is a large-scale example of a true consumer-directed health insurance plan. With Part D, 42 million Americans can select from any one of dozens of Medicare Advantage or stand-alone prescription plans available to them. At the end of each year, beneficiaries will be able to evaluate their satisfaction with their chosen plan, assess other available options and determine whether to re-enroll or choose a new plan. Consumers rule.