Empirical analysis of drought-induced cattle destocking in South Africa.

Destocking as a drought mitigation strategy exposes smallholder cattle farmers to adverse effects, including the distortion of farm planning and income loss, as cattle are sold off regardless of the market price. Factors influencing destocking as a drought mitigation strategy for smallholder cattle farmers have received less attention in the literature. The study assessed the relationship between drought and cattle destocking as well as factors that affect farmers' destocking decision. The relationship between drought and cattle destocking was assessed using correlation analysis, while determinants of destocking were identified through the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model, which controlled for structural zeros. The research covered the period 2008-2017 using secondary data from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), the South Africa Weather Service and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The study found that drought has direct correlation with the quantity of beef produced in South Africa at -0.67, with a 1% significance level. Farmers' socioeconomic characteristics such as cattle herd size, income, secondary occupation, fodder purchase and ownership of land positively influenced cattle destocking decision while household size and cattle loss during drought influenced destocking decision negatively. Contribution: The study estimated the determinants of smallholder cattle farmers' decision to destock during drought, using a count model and accounted for socioeconomic and farmer-specific factors.

Long-rains crops, short-rains crops, permanent crops and fruit crops: The 'hidden' multiple season-cropping system for adaptation to rain variability by smallholder farms.

To adapt is to survive. However, sub-Saharan Africa, although highly dependent on agriculture, is vulnerable, most affected, with low-adaptive capacity. Luckily, the region is blessed with inherent adaptation-related strengths that are within reach, to counteract uncertainty in climatic patterns which are expected to continue well into the future. One such strength is a bimodal rainfall pattern that avails the 'hidden' multiple season-cropping systems that have the potential to produce four types of crops in a single plot in a single year: short-rains crops, long-rains crops, permanent crops and fruit crops. Despite burgeoning literature on adaptation, the impact of multiple season-cropping systems has not been adequately investigated. This study applies a novel approach to measure its impact on productivity of more than 10,000 smallholder plots using an endogenous switching regression framework. The study finds that plots that adopt multiple season-cropping systems produce higher quantities, earn more crop revenue, and are less likely to be affected by rainfall variability in comparison to plots that engage in single season-cropping systems. As the fight against climate change continues, there is need to move the needle on adaptation and consider strategies that are within reach. The multiple season-cropping systems provide this opportunity and emphasises the benefit of engaging in agriculture throughout the year and producing long-rains, short rains, permanent and fruits crops.