New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant with Spike Protein Mutation Y451H, Kilifi, Kenya, March-May 2023.

We report a newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant FY.4 that has mutations Y451H in spike and P42L in open reading frame 3a proteins. FY.4 emergence coincided with increased SARS-CoV-2 cases in coastal Kenya during April-May 2023. Continued SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is needed to identify new lineages to inform COVID-19 outbreak prevention.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. METHODS: We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. RESULTS: A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. CONCLUSION: Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

Assessment of gestational age at antenatal care visits among Kenyan women to inform delivery of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines that are likely to be implementable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in final stages of clinical trials. Data on the number of women presenting for antenatal care (ANC) per day and proportion attending within the proposed gestational window for vaccine delivery, is a prerequisite to guide development of vaccine vial size and inform vaccine uptake in this setting. Methods: We undertook administrative review and abstraction of ANC attendance records from 2019 registers of 24 selected health facilities, stratified by the level of care, from Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi counties in Kenya. Additional data were obtained from Mother and Child Health (MCH) booklets of women in each of the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) areas of Kilifi, Nairobi and Siaya. Data analysis involved descriptive summaries of the number (mean, median) and proportion of women attending ANC within the gestational window period of 28-32 weeks and 24-36 weeks. Results: A total of 62,153 ANC records were abstracted, 33,872 from Kilifi, 19,438 from Siaya and 8,943 from Nairobi Counties. The median (Interquartile range, IQR) number of women attending ANC per day at a gestational age window of 28-32 and 24-36 weeks, respectively, were: 4 (2-6) and 7 (4-12) in dispensaries, 5 (2-9) and 10 (4-19) in health centres and 6 (4-11) and 16 (10-26) in county referral hospitals. In the HDSS areas of Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi, pregnant women attending at least one ANC visit, within a window of 28-32 weeks, were: 77% (360/470), 75% (590/791) and 67% (547/821), respectively. Conclusions: About 70% of pregnant women across three distinct geographical regions in Kenya, attend ANC within 28-32 weeks of gestation. A multidose vial size with about five doses per vial, approximates daily ANC attendance and would not incur possible wastage in similar settings.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease and Prevention Products: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Preferences of Kenyan Healthcare Workers in Two Counties in 2021.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants under 6 months of age. Yet, in Kenya, little is known about healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions around RSV disease and the prevention products under development. Between September and October 2021, we conducted a mixed methods cross-sectional survey to assess HCWs' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of RSV disease and RSV vaccinations in two counties. We enrolled HCWs delivering services directly at maternal and child health (MCH) departments in selected health facilities (frontline HCWs) and health management officers (HMOs). Of the 106 respondents, 94 (88.7%) were frontline HCWs, while 12 were HMOs. Two of the HMOs were members of the Kenya National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (KENITAG). Of the 104 non-KENITAG HCWs, only 41 (39.4%) had heard about RSV disease, and 38/41 (92.7%) felt that pregnant women should be vaccinated against RSV. Most participants would recommend a single-dose vaccine schedule (n = 62, 58.5%) for maximal adherence and compliance (n = 38/62, 61.3%), single dose/device vaccines (n = 50/86, 58.1%) to prevent wastage and contamination, and maternal vaccination through antenatal care clinics (n = 53, 50%). We found the need for increased knowledge about RSV disease and prevention among Kenyan HCWs.

Estimates of the national burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Kenyan children aged under 5 years, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions. METHODS: Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths. We extrapolated the rates from the base regions to other regions of Kenya, while adjusting for risk factors of ARI and healthcare seeking behavior, and finally applied the proportions of RSV-positive cases identified from various sentinel and study facilities to the rates to obtain regional age-specific rates of RSV-associated outpatient and non-medically attended ARI and hospitalized SARI and severe ARI that was not hospitalized (non-hospitalized SARI). We applied age-specific RSV case fatality ratios to SARI to obtain estimates of RSV-associated in- and out-of-hospital deaths. RESULTS: Among Kenyan children aged < 5 years, the estimated annual incidence of outpatient and non-medically attended RSV-associated ARI was 206 (95% credible interval, CI; 186-229) and 226 (95% CI; 204-252) per 1000 children, respectively. The estimated annual rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized RSV-associated SARI were 349 (95% CI; 303-404) and 1077 (95% CI; 934-1247) per 100,000 children respectively. The estimated annual number of in- and out-of-hospital deaths associated with RSV infection in Kenya were 539 (95% CI; 420-779) and 1921 (95% CI; 1495-2774), respectively. Children aged < 6 months had the highest burden of RSV-associated severe disease: 2075 (95% CI; 1818-2394) and 44 (95% CI 25-71) cases per 100,000 children for hospitalized SARI and in-hospital deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a substantial disease burden due to RSV infection, particularly among younger children. Prioritizing development and use of maternal vaccines and affordable long-lasting monoclonal antibodies could help reduce this burden.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data. METHODS: We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5-50 USD for MV, 10-125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation. RESULTS: Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF's GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.

Serum immunoglobulin G and mucosal immunoglobulin A antibodies from prepandemic samples collected in Kilifi, Kenya, neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro.

OBJECTIVES: Many regions of Africa have experienced lower COVID-19 morbidity and mortality than Europe. Pre-existing humoral responses to endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) may cross-protect against SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the neutralizing capacity of SARS-CoV-2 spike reactive and nonreactive immunoglobulin (Ig)G and IgA antibodies in prepandemic samples. METHODS: To investigate the presence of pre-existing immunity, we performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using spike antigens from reference SARS-CoV-2, HCoV HKU1, OC43, NL63, and 229E using prepandemic samples from Kilifi in coastal Kenya. In addition, we performed neutralization assays using pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 to determine the functionality of the identified reactive antibodies. RESULTS: We demonstrate the presence of HCoV serum IgG and mucosal IgA antibodies, which cross-react with the SARS-CoV-2 spike. We show pseudotyped reference SARS-CoV-2 neutralization by prepandemic serum, with a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 251, which is 10-fold less than that of the pooled convalescent sera from patients with COVID-19 but still within predicted protection levels. The prepandemic naso-oropharyngeal fluid neutralized pseudo-SARS-CoV-2 at a mean infective dose 50 of 1: 5.9 in the neutralization assay. CONCLUSION: Our data provide evidence for pre-existing functional humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and adds to data showing pre-existing immunity for COVID-19 from other regions.

Rhinovirus dynamics across different social structures.

Rhinoviruses (RV), common human respiratory viruses, exhibit significant antigenic diversity, yet their dynamics across distinct social structures remain poorly understood. Our study delves into RV dynamics within Kenya by analysing VP4/2 sequences across four different social structures: households, a public primary school, outpatient clinics in the Kilifi Health and Demographics Surveillance System (HDSS), and countrywide hospital admissions and outpatients. The study revealed the greatest diversity of RV infections at the countrywide level (114 types), followed by the Kilifi HDSS (78 types), the school (47 types), and households (40 types), cumulatively representing >90% of all known RV types. Notably, RV diversity correlated directly with the size of the population under observation, and several RV type variants occasionally fuelled RV infection waves. Our findings highlight the critical role of social structures in shaping RV dynamics, information that can be leveraged to enhance public health strategies. Future research should incorporate whole-genome analysis to understand fine-scale evolution across various social structures.

Efficiency of transplacental transfer of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya.

Background: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibodies in pregnant women, is a strategy being considered to enhance infant protection from severe RSV associated disease. However, little is known about the efficiency of transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies in a setting with a high burden of malaria and HIV, to guide the implementation of such a vaccination program. Methods: Using a plaque reduction neutralization assay, we screened 400 pairs of cord and maternal serum specimens from pregnant women for RSV-specific antibodies. Participants were pregnant women of two surveillance cohorts: 200 participants from a hospital cohort in Kilifi, Coastal Kenya and 200 participants from a surveillance cohort in Siaya, Western Kenya. Transplacental transfer efficiency was determined by the cord to maternal transfer ratio (CMTR). Logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of impaired transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies. Results: A total of 800 samples were screened from the 400 participants. At enrollment the median age was 25 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 21-31). Overall, transplacental transfer was efficient and did not differ between Kilifi and Siaya cohort (1.02 vs. 1.02; p=0.946) but was significantly reduced among HIV-infected mothers compared to HIV-uninfected mothers (mean CMTR: 0.98 vs 1.03; p=0.015). Prematurity <33 weeks gestation (Odds ratio [OR]: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06-0.85; p=0.028), low birth weight <2.5 kgs (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.07-0.94; p=0.041) and HIV infection (OR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.23-0.98; p=0.045) reduced efficiency of transplacental transfer among these women. Conclusions: Transplacental transfer of RSV-specific antibodies among pregnant women in Kenya is efficient. A consideration to integrate other preventive interventions with maternal RSV vaccination targeting infants born premature (<33 weeks gestation), with low birth weight <2.5 kgs, or HIV-infected mothers is likely to improve vaccine outcomes in this setting.

Transplacental transfer of RSV antibody in Australian First Nations infants.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalisations in Aboriginal infants specifically those aged <6 months. Maternally derived RSV antibody (Ab) can protect against severe RSV disease in infancy. However, the efficiency of transplacental transfer of maternal anti-RSV Ab remains unknown in Aboriginal infants. We characterised RSV Ab in Australian First Nations mother-infant pairs (n = 78). We investigated impact of covariates including low birthweight, gestational age (GA), sex of the baby, maternal age and multiparity of the mother on cord to maternal anti-RSV Ab titre ratio (CMTR) using multivariable logistic regression model. All (n = 78) but one infant was born full term (median GA: 39 weeks, interquartile range: 38-40 weeks) and 56% were males. The mean log2 RSV Ab titre was 10.7 (SD± 1.3) in maternal serum and 11.0 (SD ± 1.3) in cord serum at birth; a ratio of 1.02 (SD ± 0.06). One-third of the pairs had a CMTR of <1 indicating impaired transfer. Almost 9% (7/78) of the term infants had cord RSV Ab levels below

Implications of gestational age at antenatal care attendance on the successful implementation of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine program in coastal Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Maternal immunisation to boost respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) specific antibodies in pregnant women is a strategy to enhance infant protection. The timing of maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be critical for its effectiveness. However, Kenya has no documented published data on gestational age distribution of pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC), or the proportion of women attending ANC during the proposed window period for vaccination, to inform appropriate timing for delivery or estimate potential uptake of this vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), coastal Kenya. A simple random sample of 1000 women who had registered pregnant in 2017 to 2018 and with a birth outcome by the time of data collection was taken. The selected women were followed at their homes, and individually written informed consent was obtained. Records of their antenatal attendance during pregnancy were abstracted from their ANC booklet. The proportion of all pregnant women from KHDSS (55%) who attended for one or more ANC in 2018 was used to estimate vaccine coverage. RESULTS: Of the 1000 women selected, 935 were traced with 607/935 (64.9%) available for interview, among whom 470/607 (77.4%) had antenatal care booklets. The median maternal age during pregnancy was 28.6 years. The median (interquartile range) gestational age in weeks at the first to fifth ANC attendance was 26 (21-28), 29 (26-32), 32 (28-34), 34 (32-36) and 36 (34-38), respectively. The proportion of women attending for ANC during a gestational age window for vaccination of 28-32 weeks (recommended), 26-33 weeks and 24-36 weeks was 76.6% (360/470), 84.5% (397/470) and 96.2% (452/470), respectively. Estimated vaccine coverage was 42.1, 46.5 and 52.9% within the narrow, wide and wider gestational age windows, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a random sample of pregnant women from Kilifi HDSS, Coastal Kenya with card-confirmed ANC clinic attendance, 76.6% would be reached for maternal RSV vaccination within the gestational age window of 28-32 weeks. Widening the vaccination window (26-33 weeks) or (24-36 weeks) would not dramatically increase vaccine coverage and would require consideration of antibody kinetics data that could affect vaccine efficacy.

Surveillance of respiratory viruses among children attending a primary school in rural coastal Kenya.

Background: Respiratory viruses are primary agents of respiratory tract diseases. Knowledge on the types and frequency of respiratory viruses affecting school-children is important in determining the role of schools in transmission in the community and identifying targets for interventions. Methods: We conducted a one-year (term-time) surveillance of respiratory viruses in a rural primary school in Kilifi County, coastal Kenya between May 2017 and April 2018. A sample of 60 students with symptoms of ARI were targeted for nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) collection weekly.  Swabs were screened for 15 respiratory virus targets using real time PCR diagnostics. Data from respiratory virus surveillance at the local primary healthcare facility was used for comparison. Results: Overall, 469 students aged 2-19 years were followed up for 220 days. A total of 1726 samples were collected from 325 symptomatic students; median age of 7 years (IQR 5-11). At least one virus target was detected in 384 (22%) of the samples with a frequency of 288 (16.7%) for rhinovirus, 47 (2.7%) parainfluenza virus, 35 (2.0%) coronavirus, 15 (0.9%) adenovirus, 11 (0.6%) respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and 5 (0.3%) influenza virus.  The proportion of virus positive samples was higher among lower grades compared to upper grades (25.9% vs 17.5% respectively; χ 2 = 17.2, P -value <0.001). Individual virus target frequencies did not differ by age, sex, grade, school term or class size. Rhinovirus was predominant in both the school and outpatient setting. Conclusion: Multiple respiratory viruses circulated in this rural school population.  Rhinovirus was dominant in both the school and outpatient setting and RSV was of notably low frequency in the school. The role of school children in transmitting viruses to the household setting is still unclear and further studies linking molecular data to contact patterns between the school children and their households are required.

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus group B in Kilifi, Kenya, 2015-17.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulates worldwide, occurring seasonally in communities, and is a leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. There is paucity of genomic data from purposively sampled populations by which to investigate evolutionary dynamics and transmission patterns of RSV. Here we present an analysis of 295 RSV group B (RSVB) genomes from Kilifi, coastal Kenya, sampled from individuals seeking outpatient care in nine health facilities across a defined geographical area (∼890 km2), over two RSV epidemics between 2015 and 2017. RSVB diversity was characterized by multiple virus introductions into the area and co-circulation of distinct genetic clusters, which transmitted and diversified locally with varying frequency. Increase in relative genetic diversity paralleled seasonal virus incidence. Importantly, we identified a cluster of viruses that emerged in the 2016/17 epidemic, carrying distinct amino-acid signatures including a novel nonsynonymous change (K68Q) in antigenic site ∅ in the Fusion protein. RSVB diversity was additionally marked by signature nonsynonymous substitutions that were unique to particular genomic clusters, some under diversifying selection. Our findings provide insights into recent evolutionary and epidemiological behaviors of RSVB, and highlight possible emergence of a novel antigenic variant, which has implications on current prophylactic strategies in development.

Transmission and evolutionary dynamics of human coronavirus OC43 strains in coastal Kenya investigated by partial spike sequence analysis, 2015-16.

Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) is a major contributor to seasonal outbreaks of acute respiratory illness (ARI). The origins of locally circulating HCoV-OC43 strains and characteristics of their genetic diversity are unknown for most settings despite significance to effective HCoV control strategies. Between December 2015 and June 2016, we undertook ARI surveillance in coastal Kenya in nine outpatients and one inpatient health facility (HF). Ninety-two patient samples tested HCoV-OC43 positive and forty (43.5%) were successfully sequenced in spike (S) gene region (2,864 long, ∼70%). Phylogenetic analysis confirmed co-circulation of two distinct HCoV-OC43 clades that closely clustered with genotype G (n = 34, 85%) and genotype H (n = 6, 15%) reference strains. Local viruses within the same clade displayed low genetic diversity yielding identical sequences in multiple HF. Furthermore, the newly sequenced Kenyan viruses showed close phylogenetic relationship to other contemporaneous sampled strains (2015-16) including those originating from distant places (e.g. USA and China). Using a genetic similarity threshold of 99.1 per cent at nucleotide level, the HCoV-OC43 strains sampled globally between 1967 and 2019 fell into nine sequence clusters. Notably, some of these clusters appeared to have become extinct, or occurred only sporadically in a few geographical areas while others persisted globally for multiple years. In conclusion, we found that HCoV-OC43 strains spread rapidly both locally and across the globe with limited genetic evolution in the spike gene. Full-genome sequences that are spatio-temporally representative are required to advance understanding of the transmission pathways of this important human respiratory pathogen.

Genetic characterization of influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulating in coastal Kenya, 2009-2017.

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses evolve rapidly and undergo immune driven selection, especially in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. We report amino acid changes affecting antigenic epitopes and receptor-binding sites of A(H3N2) viruses circulating in Kilifi, Kenya, from 2009 to 2017. METHODS: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) was used to generate A(H3N2) virus genomic data from influenza-positive specimens collected from hospital admissions and health facility outpatients presenting with acute respiratory illness to health facilities within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Full-length HA sequences were utilized to characterize A(H3N2) virus genetic and antigenic changes. RESULTS: From 186 (90 inpatient and 96 outpatient) influenza A virus-positive specimens processed, 101 A(H3N2) virus whole genomes were obtained. Among viruses identified in inpatient specimens from 2009 to 2015, divergence of circulating A(H3N2) viruses from the vaccine strains A/Perth/16/2009, A/Texas/50/2012, and A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 formed 6 genetic clades (A/Victoria/208/2009-like, 3B, 3C, 3C.2a, 4, and 7). Among viruses identified in outpatient specimens from 2015 to 2017, divergence of circulating A(H3N2) viruses from vaccine strain A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 formed clade 3C.2a, subclades 3C.2a2 and 3C.2a3, and subgroup 3C.2a1b. Several amino acid substitutions were associated with the continued genetic evolution of A(H3N2) strains in circulation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest continuing evolution of currently circulating A(H3N2) viruses in Kilifi, coastal Kenya and suggest the need for continuous genetic and antigenic viral surveillance of circulating seasonal influenza viruses with broad geographic representation to facilitate prompt and efficient selection of influenza strains for inclusion in future influenza vaccines.

An optimization of four SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR assays in a Kenyan laboratory to support the national COVID-19 rapid response teams.

Background: The global COVID-19 outbreak relies on a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), to facilitate the roll-out of patient care and infection control measures. There are several qRT-PCR assays with little evidence on their comparability. We report alterations to the developers' recommendations to sustain the testing capability in our setting, where the supply of testing reagents is limited. Methods: Standards generated from a serially-diluted positive control and previously identified positive/negative samples were used to determine the optimal volumes of the qRT-PCR reagents and to evaluate the validity and performance of four assays: Charité Berlin and European Virus Archive - GLOBAL (EVAg) primer-probe sets, and DAAN and Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI) premixed commercial kits. A multiplex and singleplex RT-PCR kit was used with the two primer-probe sets and the recommended assay volumes of the two premixed kits were altered. Results: In comparison to the multiplex RT-PCR kit, the singleplex RT-PCR kit combined with the primer-probe sets yielded consistent cycle threshold (Ct) values across the different titrations tested. The DAAN premixed kit produced comparable Ct values across the titrations, while the BGI kit showed incomparable Ct values and inconsistent results between batches using the manufacturer's recommended volumes. Conclusion: We achieved a 2.5-fold and 4-fold increase in the number of tests/kit for the premixed kits and the primer-probe sets, respectively. The primer-probe set assays were reliable and consistent, and we preferred a combination of an EVAg and a Berlin target. Any inconclusive result was repeated by different individuals following the same protocol. DAAN was a consistent and reliable assay even at lower concentrations from the stated recommendations. BGI in contrast, required dilution to improve its performance and was hence an assay that was used in combination with EVAg or Berlin targets.

Epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus in coastal Kenya as revealed by genomic analysis of strains sampled over a single season.

The genomic epidemiology of influenza B virus (IBV) remains understudied in Africa despite significance to design of effective local and global control strategies. We undertook surveillance throughout 2016 in coastal Kenya, recruiting individuals presenting with acute respiratory illness at nine outpatient health facilities (any age) or admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital (<5 years old). Whole genomes were sequenced for a selected 111 positives; 94 (84.7%) of B/Victoria lineage and 17 (15.3%) of B/Yamagata lineage. Inter-lineage reassortment was detected in ten viruses; nine with B/Yamagata backbone but B/Victoria NA and NP segments and one with a B/Victoria backbone but B/Yamagata PB2, PB1, PA, and MP segments. Five phylogenomic clusters were identified among the sequenced viruses; (i), pure B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 93, 83.8%), (ii), reassortant B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 1, 0.9%), (iii), pure B/Yamagata clade 2 (n = 2, 1.8%), (iv), pure B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 6, 5.4%), and (v), reassortant B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 9, 8.1%). Using divergence dates and clustering patterns in the presence of global background sequences, we counted up to twenty-nine independent IBV strain introductions into the study area (∼900 km2) in 2016. Local viruses, including the reassortant B/Yamagata strains, clustered closely with viruses from neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda. Our study demonstrated that genomic analysis provides a clearer picture of locally circulating IBV diversity. The high number of IBV introductions highlights the challenge in controlling local influenza epidemics by targeted approaches, for example, sub-population vaccination or patient quarantine. The finding of divergent IBV strains co-circulating within a single season emphasises why broad immunity vaccines are the most ideal for influenza control in Kenya.

Agreement between ELISA and plaque reduction neutralisation assay in Detection of respiratory syncytial virus specific antibodies in a birth Cohort from Kilifi, coastal Kenya.

Background: Severe disease associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection occurs predominantly among infants under 6 months of age. Vaccines for prevention are in clinical development. Assessment of the vaccine effectiveness in large epidemiological studies requires serological assays which are rapid, economical and standardised between laboratories. The objective of this study was to assess the agreement between two enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and the plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) in quantifying RSV specific antibodies. Methods: Archived sera from 99 participants of the Kilifi Birth Cohort (KBC) study (conducted 2002-2007) were screened for RSV antibodies using 3 methods: ELISA using crude RSV lysate as antigen, a commercial RSV immunoglobulin G (IgG) ELISA kit from IBL International GmbH, and PRNT. Pearson correlation, Bland-Altman plots and regression methods were used in analysis. Results: There was high positive correlation between the IBL RSV IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (Pearson r=0.75), and moderate positive correlation between the crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA and PRNT antibodies (r= 0.61). Crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA showed a wider 95% limit of agreement (-1.866, 6.157) with PRNT compared to the IBL RSV IgG ELISA (1.392, 7.595). Mean PRNT titres were estimated within a width of 4.8 log 2PRNT and 5.6 log 2PRNT at 95% prediction interval by IBL RSV IgG and crude RSV lysate IgG ELISA, respectively. Conclusion: Although, the IBL RSV IgG ELISA is observed to provide a reasonable correlate for PRNT assay in detecting RSV specific antibodies, it does not provide an accurate prediction for neutralizing antibody levels. An RSV neutralising antibody level is likely to fall within 2.4 fold higher and 2.4 fold lower than the true value if IBL RSV IgG ELISA is used to replace PRNT assay. The utility of an ELISA assay in vaccine studies should be assessed independent of the PRNT method.

Congenital microcephaly unrelated to flavivirus exposure in coastal Kenya.

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) was first discovered in East Africa in 1947.  ZIKV has caused microcephaly in the Americas, but it is not known whether ZIKV is a cause of microcephaly in East Africa. Methods: We used surveillance data from 11,061 live births at Kilifi County Hospital in coastal Kenya between January 2012 and October 2016 to identify microcephaly cases and conducted a nested case-control study to determine risk factors for microcephaly. Gestational age at birth was estimated based on antenatal ultrasound scanning ('Scanned cohort') or last menstrual period ('LMP cohort', including births ≥37 weeks' gestation only). Controls were newborns with head circumference Z scores between >-2 and ≤2 SD that were compared to microcephaly cases in relation to ZIKV exposure and other maternal and newborn factors. Results: Of the 11,061 newborns, 214 (1.9%, 95%CI 1.69, 2.21) had microcephaly. Microcephaly prevalence was 1.0% (95%CI 0.64, 1.70, n=1529) and 2.1% (95%CI 1.81, 2.38, n=9532) in the scanned and LMP cohorts, respectively. After excluding babies <2500 g (n=1199) in the LMP cohort the prevalence was 1.1% (95%CI 0.93, 1.39). Microcephaly showed an association with being born small for gestational age (p<0.001) but not with ZIKV neutralising antibodies (p=0.6) or anti-ZIKV NS1 IgM response (p=0.9). No samples had a ZIKV neutralising antibody titre that was at least fourfold higher than the corresponding dengue virus (DENV) titre. No ZIKV or other flavivirus RNA was detected in cord blood from cases or controls. Conclusions: Microcephaly was prevalent in coastal Kenya, but does not appear to be related to ZIKV exposure; the ZIKV response observed in our study population was largely due to cross-reactive responses to DENV or other related flaviviruses. Further research into potential causes and the clinical consequences of microcephaly in this population is urgently needed.

Surveillance of respiratory viruses in the outpatient setting in rural coastal Kenya: baseline epidemiological observations.

Background: Endemic and seasonally recurring respiratory viruses are a major cause of disease and death globally. The burden is particularly severe in developing countries. Improved understanding of the source of infection, pathways of spread and persistence in communities would be of benefit in devising intervention strategies. Methods: We report epidemiological data obtained through surveillance of respiratory viruses at nine outpatient health facilities within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kilifi County, coastal Kenya, between January and December 2016. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from individuals of all ages presenting with acute respiratory infection (ARI) symptoms (up to 15 swabs per week per facility) and screened for 15 respiratory viruses using real-time PCR. Paediatric inpatient surveillance at Kilifi County Hospital for respiratory viruses provided comparative data. Results: Over the year, 5,647 participants were sampled, of which 3,029 (53.7%) were aged <5 years. At least one target respiratory virus was detected in 2,380 (42.2%) of the samples; the most common being rhinovirus 18.6% (1,050), influenza virus 6.9% (390), coronavirus 6.8% (387), parainfluenza virus 6.6% (371), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) 3.9% (219) and adenovirus 2.7% (155). Virus detections were higher among <5-year-olds compared to older children and adults (50.3% vs 32.7%, respectively; χ 2(1) =177.3, P=0.0001). Frequency of viruses did not differ significantly by facility (χ 2(8) =13.38, P=0.072). However, prevalence was significantly higher among inpatients than outpatients in <5-year-olds for RSV (22.1% vs 6.0%; χ 2(1) = 159.4, P=0.0001), and adenovirus (12.4% vs 4.4%, χ 2(1) =56.6, P=0.0001). Conclusions: Respiratory virus infections are common amongst ARI outpatients in this coastal Kenya setting, particularly in young children. Rhinovirus predominance warrants further studies on the health and socio-economic implications. RSV and adenovirus were more commonly associated with severe disease. Further analysis will explore epidemiological transmission patterns with the addition of virus sequence data.