Uncovering commercial activity in informal cities.

Knowledge of the spatial organization of economic activity within a city is a key to policy concerns. However, in developing cities with high levels of informality, this information is often unavailable. Recent progress in machine learning together with the availability of street imagery offers an affordable and easily automated solution. Here, we propose an algorithm that can detect what we call visible establishments using street view imagery. By using Medellín, Colombia as a case study, we illustrate how this approach can be used to uncover previously unseen economic activity. By applying spatial analysis to our dataset, we detect a polycentric structure with five distinct clusters located in both the established centre and peripheral areas. Comparing the density of visible establishments with that of registered firms, we infer that informal activity concentrates in poor but densely populated areas. Our findings highlight the large gap between what is captured in official data and the reality on the ground.

The new paradigm of economic complexity.

Economic complexity offers a potentially powerful paradigm to understand key societal issues and challenges of our time. The underlying idea is that growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience are the visible outcomes of hidden systemic interactions. The study of economic complexity seeks to understand the structure of these interactions and how they shape various socioeconomic processes. This emerging field relies heavily on big data and machine learning techniques. This brief introduction to economic complexity has three aims. The first is to summarize key theoretical foundations and principles of economic complexity. The second is to briefly review the tools and metrics developed in the economic complexity literature that exploit information encoded in the structure of the economy to find new empirical patterns. The final aim is to highlight the insights from economic complexity to improve prediction and political decision-making. Institutions including the World Bank, the European Commission, the World Economic Forum, the OECD, and a range of national and regional organizations have begun to embrace the principles of economic complexity and its analytical framework. We discuss policy implications of this field, in particular the usefulness of building recommendation systems for major public investment decisions in a complex world.

Modelling COVID-19 transmission in supermarkets using an agent-based model.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in early March 2020, supermarkets around the world have implemented different policies to reduce the virus transmission in stores to protect both customers and staff, such as restricting the maximum number of customers in a store, changes to the store layout, or enforcing a mandatory face covering policy. To quantitatively assess these mitigation methods, we formulate an agent-based model of customer movement in a supermarket (which we represent by a network) with a simple virus transmission model based on the amount of time a customer spends in close proximity to infectious customers (which we call the exposure time). We apply our model to synthetic store and shopping data to show how one can use our model to estimate exposure time and thereby the number of infections due to human-to-human contact in stores and how to model different store interventions. The source code is openly available under https://github.com/fabianying/covid19-supermarket-abm. We encourage retailers to use the model to find the most effective store policies that reduce virus transmission in stores and thereby protect both customers and staff.

COVID-19 policy analysis: labour structure dictates lockdown mobility behaviour.

Countries and cities around the world have resorted to unprecedented mobility restrictions to combat COVID-19 transmission. Here we exploit a natural experiment whereby Colombian cities implemented varied lockdown policies based on ID number and gender to analyse the impact of these policies on urban mobility. Using mobile phone data, we find that the restrictiveness of cities' mobility quotas (the share of residents allowed out daily according to policy advice) does not correlate with mobility reduction. Instead, we find that larger, wealthier cities with more formalized and complex industrial structure experienced greater reductions in mobility. Within cities, wealthier residents are more likely to reduce mobility, and commuters are especially more likely to stay at home when their work is located in wealthy or commercially/industrially formalized neighbourhoods. Hence, our results indicate that cities' employment characteristics and work-from-home capabilities are the primary determinants of mobility reduction. This finding underscores the need for mitigations aimed at lower income/informal workers, and sheds light on critical dependencies between socio-economic classes in Latin American cities.

Productive Ecosystems and the arrow of development.

Economic growth is associated with the diversification of economic activities, which can be observed via the evolution of product export baskets. Exporting a new product is dependent on having, and acquiring, a specific set of capabilities, making the diversification process path-dependent. Taking an agnostic view on the identity of the capabilities, here we derive a probabilistic model for the directed dynamical process of capability accumulation and product diversification of countries. Using international trade data, we identify the set of pre-existing products, the product Ecosystem, that enables a product to be exported competitively. We construct a directed network of products, the Eco Space, where the edge weight corresponds to capability overlap. We uncover a modular structure, and show that low- and middle-income countries move from product communities dominated by small Ecosystem products to advanced (large Ecosystem) product clusters over time. Finally, we show that our network model is predictive of product appearances.

The heartbeat of the city.

Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings and so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing and security, cyclical weekly patterns in crime and road incidents have been unexplored at the city and neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture the weekly trace, or "heartbeat" of events and use geotagged data capturing the time and location of more than 200,000 violent crimes and nearly one million crashes in Mexico City. On aggregate, our findings show that the heartbeats of crime and crashes follow a similar pattern. We observe valleys during the night and peaks in the evening, where the intensity during a peak is 7.5 times the intensity of valleys in terms of crime and 12.3 times in terms of road accidents. Although distinct types of events, crimes and crashes reach their respective intensity peak on Friday night and valley on Tuesday morning, the result of a hyper-synchronised society. Next, heartbeats are computed for city neighbourhood 'tiles', a division of space within the city based on the distance to Metro and other public transport stations. We find that heartbeats are spatially heterogeneous with some diffusion, so that nearby tiles have similar heartbeats. Tiles are then clustered based on the shape of their heartbeat, e.g., tiles within groups suffer peaks and valleys of crime or crashes at similar times during the week. The clusters found are similar to those based on economic activities. This enables us to anticipate temporal traces of crime and crashes based on local amenities.

Graph partitions and cluster synchronization in networks of oscillators.

Synchronization over networks depends strongly on the structure of the coupling between the oscillators. When the coupling presents certain regularities, the dynamics can be coarse-grained into clusters by means of External Equitable Partitions of the network graph and their associated quotient graphs. We exploit this graph-theoretical concept to study the phenomenon of cluster synchronization, in which different groups of nodes converge to distinct behaviors. We derive conditions and properties of networks in which such clustered behavior emerges and show that the ensuing dynamics is the result of the localization of the eigenvectors of the associated graph Laplacians linked to the existence of invariant subspaces. The framework is applied to both linear and non-linear models, first for the standard case of networks with positive edges, before being generalized to the case of signed networks with both positive and negative interactions. We illustrate our results with examples of both signed and unsigned graphs for consensus dynamics and for partial synchronization of oscillator networks under the master stability function as well as Kuramoto oscillators.

Observability and coarse graining of consensus dynamics through the external equitable partition.

Using the intrinsic relationship between the external equitable partition (EEP) and the spectral properties of the graph Laplacian, we characterize convergence and observability properties of consensus dynamics on networks. In particular, we establish the relationship between the original consensus dynamics and the associated consensus of the quotient graph under varied initial conditions, and characterize the asymptotic convergence to the synchronization manifold under nonuniform input signals. We also show that the EEP with respect to a node can reveal nodes in the graph with an increased rate of asymptotic convergence to the consensus value, as characterized by the second smallest eigenvalue of the quotient Laplacian. Finally, we show that the quotient graph preserves the observability properties of the full graph and how the inheritance by the quotient graph of particular aspects of the eigenstructure of the full Laplacian underpins the observability and convergence properties of the system.