Durability of viral suppression with first-line antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV in the UK: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The length of time that people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load suppression will be able to continue before developing viral rebound is unknown. We aimed to investigate the rate of first viral rebound in people that have achieved initial suppression with ART, to determine factors associated with viral rebound, and to use these estimates to predict long-term durability of viral suppression. METHODS: The UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study is an ongoing multicentre cohort study that brings together in a standardised format data on people with HIV attending clinics around the UK. We included participants who started ART with three or more drugs and who had achieved viral suppression (≤50 copies per mL) by 9 months after the start of ART (baseline). Viral rebound was defined as the first single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL or treatment interruption (for ≥1 month). We investigated factors associated with viral rebound with Poisson regression. These results were used to calculate the rate of viral rebound according to several key factors, including age, calendar year at start of ART, and time since baseline. RESULTS: Of the 16 101 people included, 4519 had a first viral rebound over 58 038 person-years (7·8 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 7·6-8·0). Of the 4519 viral rebounds, 3105 (69%) were defined by measurement of a single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL, and 1414 (31%) by a documented treatment interruption. The rate of first viral rebound declined substantially over time until 7 years from baseline. The other factors associated with viral rebound were current age at follow-up and calendar year at ART initiation (p<0·0001) and HIV risk group (p<0·0001); higher pre-ART CD4 count (p=0·0008) and pre-ART viral load (p=0·0003) were associated with viral rebound in the multivariate analysis only. For 1322 (29%) of the 3105 people with observed viral rebound, the next viral load value after rebound was 50 copies per mL or less with no regimen change. For HIV-positive men who have sex with men, our estimates suggest that the probability of first viral rebound reaches a plateau of 1·4% per year after 45 years of age, and 1·0% when accounting for the fact that 29% of viral rebounds are temporary elevations. INTERPRETATION: A substantial proportion of people on ART will not have viral rebound over their lifetime, which has implications for people with HIV and the planning of future drug development. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Effect of immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy on risk of severe bacterial infections in HIV-positive people with CD4 cell counts of more than 500 cells per µL: secondary outcome results from a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The effects of antiretroviral therapy on risk of severe bacterial infections in people with high CD4 cell counts have not been well described. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of immediate versus deferred ART on the risk of severe bacterial infection in people with high CD4 cell counts in a preplanned analysis of the START trial. METHODS: The START trial was a randomised controlled trial in ART-naive HIV-positive patients with CD4 cell count of more than 500 cells per µL assigned to immediate ART or deferral until their CD4 cell counts were lower than 350 cells per µL. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model time to severe bacterial infection, which was defined as a composite endpoint of bacterial pneumonia (confirmed by the endpoint review committee), pulmonary or extrapulmonary tuberculosis, or any bacterial infectious disorder of grade 4 severity, that required unscheduled hospital admissions, or caused death. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00867048. FINDINGS: Patients were recruited from April 15, 2009, to Dec 23, 2013. The data cutoff for follow-up was May 26, 2015. Of 4685 HIV-positive people enrolled, 120 had severe bacterial infections (immediate-initiation group n=34, deferred-initiation group n=86; median 2·8 years of follow-up). Immediate ART was associated with a reduced risk of severe bacterial infection compared with deferred ART (hazard ratio [HR] 0·39, 95% CI 0·26-0·57, p<0·0001). In the immediate-initiation group, average neutrophil count over follow-up was 321 cells per µL higher, and average CD4 cell count 194 cells per µL higher than the deferred-initiation group (p<0·0001). In univariable analysis, higher time-updated CD4 cell count (0·78, 0·71-0·85, p=0·0001) was associated with reduced risk of severe bacterial infection. Time-updated neutrophil count was not associated with severe bacterial infection. After adjustment for time-updated factors in multivariable analysis, particularly the CD4 cell count, the HR for immediate-initiation group moved closer to 1 (HR 0·84, 0·50-1·41, p=0·52). These results were consistent when subgroups of the severe bacterial infection composite were analysed separately. INTERPRETATION: Immediate ART reduces the risk of several severe bacterial infections in HIV-positive people with high CD4 cell count. This is partly explained by ART-induced increases in CD4 cell count, but not by increases in neutrophil count. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health, Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les Hépatites Virales, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, European AIDS Treatment Network, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research and Medical Research Council, Danish National Research Foundation.

Interleukin 6 Is a Stronger Predictor of Clinical Events Than High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein or D-Dimer During HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Interleukin 6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and D-dimer levels are linked to adverse outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, but the strength of their associations with different clinical end points warrants investigation. METHODS: Participants receiving standard of care in 2 HIV trials with measured biomarker levels were followed to ascertain all-cause death, non-AIDS-related death, AIDS, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of each end point for quartiles and log2-transformed IL-6, hsCRP, and D-dimer levels were calculated using Cox models. Marginal models modelling multiple events tested for equal effects of biomarker levels on different end points. RESULTS: Among 4304 participants, there were 157 all-cause deaths, 117 non-AIDS-related deaths, 101 AIDS cases, 121 CVD cases, and 99 non-AIDS-defining malignancies. IL-6 was more strongly associated with most end points, compared with hsCRP. IL-6 appeared to be a stronger predictor than D-dimer for CVD and non-AIDS-defining malignancies, but 95% CIs overlapped. Independent associations of IL-6 were stronger for non-AIDS-related death (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.43-2.04) and all-cause death (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.33-1.84) and similar for CVD (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12-1.62) and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.06-1.61). There was heterogeneity of IL-6 (P < .001) but not hsCRP (P = .15) or D-dimer (P = .20) as a predictor for different end points. CONCLUSIONS: IL-6 is a stronger predictor of fatal events than of CVD and non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Adjuvant antiinflammatory and antithrombotic therapies should be tested in HIV-infected individuals.

Factors Associated With Plasma IL-6 Levels During HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Elevated interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels have been linked to cardiovascular disease, cancer and death. Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection receiving treatment have higher IL-6 levels, but few data are available on factors associated with circulating IL-6. METHODS: Participants in 3 trials with IL-6 measured at baseline were included (N = 9864). Factors associated with IL-6 were identified by linear regression. Demographic and HIV variables (nadir/entry CD4(+) cell count, HIV RNA level, antiretroviral therapy regimen) were investigated in all 3 trials. In the SMART (Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy) trial, CD4/CD8 ratio, smoking, comorbid conditions, serum lipids, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]), and educational level were assessed. RESULTS: Demographics associated with higher IL-6 levels were older age and lower education, whereas black race was associated with lower IL-6. Higher HIV RNA levels were associated with higher IL-6 levels, and higher nadir CD4(+) cell counts with lower IL-6 levels. Compared with efavirenz, protease inhibitors were associated with higher and nevirapine with lower IL-6 levels. Smoking and all comorbid conditions were related to higher IL-6. IL-6 levels increased with decreasing eGFR and decreasing serum lipids. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of IL-6 were associated with older age, nonblack race, higher body mass index, lower serum lipid levels, HIV replication, low nadir CD4(+) cell count, protease inhibitor use, comorbid conditions, and decreased eGFR. Multiple factors affect inflammation in HIV and should be considered in studies of IL-6 as a biomarker of clinical outcomes.

Determinants of IL-6 levels during HIV infection.

INTRODUCTION: Elevated IL-6 levels have been linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and death. Compared to the general population, treated HIV+ persons have 50-100% higher IL-6 levels, but few data on the determinants of IL-6 levels during HIV infection currently exist. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Participants in three international HIV trials (SMART, ESPRIT and SILCAAT) with IL-6 plasma levels measured at baseline were included (N=9864). Factors independently associated with log2-transformed IL-6 level were identified by multivariate linear regression; exponentiated estimates corresponding to fold differences (FDs) in IL-6 were calculated. Demographics (age, gender, race, BMI) and HIV-specific variables (nadir and entry CD4 counts, HIV-RNA, use of different ART regimens) were investigated in all three trials. In SMART (N=4498), smoking, comorbidities (CVD, diabetes, hepatitis B/C [HBV/HCV]), HDL-cholesterol, renal function (eGFR) and educational level were also assessed. RESULTS: Demographics associated with higher IL-6 were older age (FD [95% CI]: 1.09 [1.08-1.11] per 10 yr) and higher BMI (1.02 [1.01-1.04] per 5 kg/m(2)), whereas black race was associated with reduced IL-6 (0.96 [0.93-0.99]). As for HIV variables, patients not receiving ART (1.36 [1.29-1.43]) and with higher HIV-RNA (1.24 [1.01-1.52] for >100,000 vs. ≤500 copies/mL) had increased IL-6. Participants taking protease inhibitors (PI) had higher IL-6 (1.14[1.09-1.19]). Higher nadir CD4 count (0.98 [0.97-0.99]/100 cells/µL) was related to lower IL-6. All evaluated comorbidities were related to higher IL-6; FDs in IL-6 were 1.08 [1.04-1.12] for smoking, 1.12 [1.02-1.24] for CVD, 1.07 [1.00-1.16] for diabetes and 1.12 [1.02-1.24] for HBV (1.15 [1.02-1.30]) and 1.53 [1.45-1.62] for HCV. IL-6 increased with decreasing eGFR (0.98 [0.97-1.00]/10 mL/min) and HDL-cholesterol (0.98 [0.96-0.99]/10 mg/mL). Lower education was related to higher IL-6 (1.09 [1.03-1.15] for high school vs. bachelor's degree). CONCLUSIONS: Higher IL-6 levels were associated with older age and non-black race, higher BMI and lower HDL-cholesterol, ongoing HIV replication, low nadir CD4 counts, comorbidities and decreased renal function. This suggests that there are multiple causes of inflammation in treated HIV infection. A possible contribution from PI use was also observed. Contribution from inflammation to explain variation in clinical outcomes for these factors should be investigated.

Rate of viral load failure over time in people on ART in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study.

INTRODUCTION: Most people achieve and maintain viral load (VL) suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) but for a minority this does not happen. It is unclear whether those who have maintained VL suppression for several years will be able to continue to do so, or if rates of VL failure - due to poor adherence, ART interruption and/or resistance - remain at appreciable levels. METHODS: Eligible participants were ART-naïve and started treatment after 1st January 2000, with ≥3 antiretrovirals and ≥9 months follow-up. VL failure was defined as failure to achieve VL suppression (≤50 copies/mL) by 9 months on ART or a single VL >200 copies/mL after 9 months after start of ART. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to examine the cumulative probability of experiencing a VL >200 copies/mL over time, irrespective of treatment interruption (Figure 1). Follow-up was censored at last VL assessment but not at treatment interruption. In a sensitivity analysis, VL failure was instead defined as two consecutive VL >1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: A total of 13,556 participants were included. Median (IQR) age at start of ART was 37 (32-43), median follow-up 4.1 (2.3-6.7) years, pre-ART VL 71,400 (17,400-221,900) copies/mL and pre-ART CD4 count 204 (110-290) cells/mm(3). Fifty-one percent were white, 71% male and 50% MSM. Of which, 5,351 (39%) participants experienced a VL >200 copies/mL. In sub-groups of participants the proportion experiencing a VL >200 copies/mL by one year after start of ART were: <50 years 22%, ≥50 years 17%, men 20%, women 26%, MSM 19%, black heterosexuals 23%, white heterosexuals 26% and other 23%. The median time to VL >200 copies/ml was 8 years. In sensitivity analyses based on 12,811 participants, 4274 (33%) experienced two consecutive VL >1000 copies/mL. Table 1 presents the rate of experiencing a VL >200 copies/mL (two consecutive VL >1000 copies/mL) by time since start of ART. The rate of VL >200 copies/mL declines over time, from 30 per 100 person-years after up to two years after ART, to two per 100 person-years after up to 11.5 years after ART. A sum of 2,047 (15%) participants stopped ART at some point (10, 14 and 17% had stopped ART by 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although resistance will often not be present and, even if present, several drug options will likely remain, first occurrence of VL > 200 copies/mL after having attained viral suppression continues to occur after 10 years on ART.

Hepatitis B virus sub-genotype A1 infection is characterized by high replication levels and rapid emergence of drug resistance in HIV-positive adults receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: It has been proposed that hepatitis B virus (HBV) sub-genotype A1 infections have mild outcomes and a low risk of drug-resistance among patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) receiving lamivudine-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) without tenofovir in Africa. METHODS: The virologic expression of HBV sub-genotype A1 coinfection was studied over 12 months in HIV-positive adults starting stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine in Malawi, using Sanger, deep, clonal, and single full-genome sequencing for the sensitive characterization of HBV resistance-associated mutations (RAMs). RESULTS: Among 1117 subjects, 133 (12%) tested HBsAg-positive. After starting ART, retention rates were 96/133 (72%) at 6 months and 54/133 (41%) at 12 months. Based upon the last available follow-up, 92/96 (96%) subjects achieved HIV-1 RNA <40 copies/mL, 48/96 (50%) showed HBV DNA <14 IU/mL, and 24/96 (25%) acquired HBV RAMs. At 6 months, M204I was detected in 8/46 (17%) and 16/17 (94%) subjects using Sanger and deep sequencing, respectively. At 12 months, all viremic patients had multiple resistance and compensatory mutations coexisting on the same HBV genomes. Comparing HBeA-positive (67/133, 50%) with HBeAg-negative subjects, 64/67 (96%) vs 35/66 (55%) showed baseline HBV DNA >2000 IU/mL (P = .0006), 39/47 (17%) vs 9/49 (82%) had persistent HBV DNA detection during follow-up (P < .0001), and 23/47 (49%) vs 2/49 (4%) acquired HBV RAMs (P < .0001). Baseline HBV DNA levels were median 8.1 vs 5.3 log10 IU/mL in subjects with vs those without treatment-emergent RAMs (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: HBV sub-genotype A1 infections showed a severe virologic expression in HIV-positive Malawians. The findings strengthen the urgency of interventions to improve ascertainment and management of chronic hepatitis B in the region.

Factors associated with D-dimer levels in HIV-infected individuals.

BACKGROUND: Higher plasma D-dimer levels are strong predictors of mortality in HIV+ individuals. The factors associated with D-dimer levels during HIV infection, however, remain poorly understood. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, participants in three randomized controlled trials with measured D-dimer levels were included (N = 9,848). Factors associated with D-dimer were identified by linear regression. Covariates investigated were: age, gender, race, body mass index, nadir and baseline CD4+ count, plasma HIV RNA levels, markers of inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6]), antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, ART regimens, co-morbidities (hepatitis B/C, diabetes mellitus, prior cardiovascular disease), smoking, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and cystatin C) and cholesterol. RESULTS: Women from all age groups had higher D-dimer levels than men, though a steeper increase of D-dimer with age occurred in men. Hepatitis B/C co-infection was the only co-morbidity associated with higher D-dimer levels. In this subgroup, the degree of hepatic fibrosis, as demonstrated by higher hyaluronic acid levels, but not viral load of hepatitis viruses, was positively correlated with D-dimer. Other factors independently associated with higher D-dimer levels were black race, higher plasma HIV RNA levels, being off ART at baseline, and increased levels of CRP, IL-6 and cystatin C. In contrast, higher baseline CD4+ counts and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were negatively correlated with D-dimer levels. CONCLUSIONS: D-dimer levels increase with age in HIV+ men, but are already elevated in women at an early age due to reasons other than a higher burden of concomitant diseases. In hepatitis B/C co-infected individuals, hepatic fibrosis, but not hepatitis viral load, was associated with higher D-dimer levels.

Failure to achieve a CD4+ cell count response on combination antiretroviral therapy despite consistent viral load suppression.

OBJECTIVE: To assess CD4 cell count recovery in people severely immunosuppressed at start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) who achieve and maintain viral load suppression. METHODS: Eligible participants from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study started ART with at least three drugs after 1 January 2000. Participants were required to have pre-ART CD4 cell count below 100 cells/µl, at least 2 years of follow-up on ART, have achieved viral load suppression (≤ 50 copies/ml) by 9 months after starting ART and to have maintained this throughout follow-up. Participants were further required to be regularly engaged with care. We calculated the proportion of people who failed to achieve a CD4 cell count of more than 100, 150, 200, 350 and 500 cells/µl by the time of the last follow-up, or 5 years from start of ART, whichever occurred first (censoring date). RESULTS: Of the 400 participants [median (interquartile range) pre-ART CD4 cell count of 38 (14-65) cells/µl], 2 (0.5%), 8 (2%), 28 (7%), 131 (33%) and 259 (65%) failed to achieve a CD4 cell count of more than 100, 150, 200, 350 and 500 cells/µl, by the censoring date, respectively. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the proportion of people reaching each CD4 cell count threshold after 1 year on ART were 88, 70, 50, 14 and 3%, respectively, and after 3 years on ART, 98, 95, 90, 59 and 25%, respectively. Median (interquartile range) follow-up on ART was 3.9 (2.7-4.8) years. CONCLUSION: Given a person with pre-ART CD4 cell count below 100 cells/µl survives and maintains consistent viral load suppression on ART, there is over a 90% chance of reaching a CD4 cell count above 200 cells/µl by 3 years.

Factors associated with adherence amongst 5295 people receiving antiretroviral therapy as part of an international trial.

BACKGROUND: We assessed factors associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, including specific ART medications. METHODS: The Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy study was an international antiretroviral therapy (ART) strategy trial that compared intermittent ART, using CD4(+) T-cell count as a guide, to continuous ART. Adherence during the 7 days before each visit was measured using self-report. We defined high adherence as self-report of taking "all" pills for each prescribed ART medication; all other reports were defined as suboptimal adherence. Factors associated with adherence were assessed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Participants reported suboptimal adherence at 6016 of 35 695 study visits (17%). Factors independently associated with suboptimal adherence were black race, protease inhibitor-containing regimens, greater pill burden, higher maximum number of doses per day, and smoking. Factors independently associated with higher adherence were older age, higher education, region of residence, episodic treatment, higher latest (at the time of adherence) CD4(+) T-cell count, and being prescribed concomitant drugs (ie, medications for comorbidities). Of specific drugs investigated, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, fosamprenavir, indinavir, indinavir/ritonavir, and lopinavir/ritonavir were associated with suboptimal adherence, and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine was associated with higher adherence. CONCLUSIONS: In this, the largest analysis of ART adherence to date, some protease inhibitor-containing regimens and regimens with >1 dose per day were associated with suboptimal adherence.

Devising two-stage and multistage phase II studies on systemic adjuvant therapy for uveal melanoma.

PURPOSE: Almost all uveal melanomas showing chromosome 3 loss (i.e., monosomy 3) are fatal. Randomized clinical trials are therefore needed to evaluate various systemic adjuvant therapies. Conventional trial designs require large numbers of patients, which are difficult to achieve in a rare disease. The aim of this study was to use existing data to estimate how sample size and study duration could be reduced by selecting high-risk patients and adopting multistage trial designs. METHODS: We identified 217 patients with a monosomy 3 melanoma exceeding 15 mm in basal diameter; these patients had a median survival of 3.27 years. Several trial designs comparing overall survival were explored for such a population. A power of 0.90 to detect a hazard ratio of 0.737 was set, and recruitment of 16 patients per month was assumed. RESULTS: A suitable single-stage study would require 960 patients and a duration of 76 months. A two-stage design with an interim analysis based on 852 patients after 53.3 months would have a 50% probability of stopping because no statistically significant treatment effect is seen. Encouraging but inconclusive results would require a further 108 patients and prolongation of the study to 77.2 months. A multistage design would have a 43% probability of stopping before 47 months having recruited 759 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Prospects for clinical studies of systemic adjuvant therapy for uveal melanoma are enhanced by multistage trial designs enrolling only high-risk patients.