Predicting 1-Year Mortality in Older Hospitalized Patients: External Validation of the HOMR Model.

OBJECTIVES: Accurate prognostic information can enable patients and physicians to make better healthcare decisions. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model accurately predicted mortality risk (concordance [C] statistic = .92) in adult hospitalized patients in a recent study in North America. We evaluated the performance of the HOMR model in a population of older inpatients in a large teaching hospital in Ireland. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Acute hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 65 years or older cared for by inpatient geriatric medicine services from January 1, 2013, to March 6, 2015 (n = 1654). After excluding those who died during the index hospitalization (n = 206) and those with missing data (n = 39), the analytical sample included 1409 patients. MEASUREMENTS: Administrative data and information abstracted from hospital discharge reports were used to determine covariate values for each patient. One-year mortality was determined from the hospital information system, local registries, or by contacting the patient's general practitioner. The linear predictor for each patient was calculated, and performance of the model was evaluated in terms of its overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. Recalibrated and revised models were also estimated and evaluated. RESULTS: One-year mortality rate after hospital discharge in this patient cohort was 18.6%. The unadjusted HOMR model had good discrimination (C statistic = .78; 95% confidence interval = .76-.81) but was poorly calibrated and consistently overestimated mortality prediction. The model's performance was modestly improved by recalibration and revision (optimism corrected C statistic = .8). CONCLUSION: The superior discriminative performance of the HOMR model reported previously was substantially attenuated in its application to our cohort of older hospitalized patients, who represent a specific subset of the original derivation cohort. Updating methods improved its performance in our cohort, but further validation, refinement, and clinical impact studies are required before use in routine clinical practice. J Am Geriatr Soc 1-6, 2019.

Deprescribing in multi-morbid older people with polypharmacy: agreement between STOPPFrail explicit criteria and gold standard deprescribing using 100 standardized clinical cases.

PURPOSE: Older people with advanced frailty are among the highest consumers of medications. When life expectancy is limited, some of these medications are likely to be inappropriate. The aim of this study was to compare STOPPFrail, a concise, easy-to-use, deprescribing tool based on explicit criteria, with gold standard, systematic geriatrician-led deprescribing. METHODS: One hundred standardized clinical cases involving 1024 medications were prepared. Clinical cases were based on anonymized hospitalized patients aged ≥ 65 years, with advanced frailty (Clinical Frailty Scale ≥ 6), receiving ≥ 5 regular medications, who were selected from a recent observational study. Level of agreement between deprescribing methods was measured by Cohen's kappa coefficient. Sensitivity and positive predictive value of STOPPFrail-guided deprescribing relative to gold standard deprescribing was also measured. RESULTS: Overall, 524 medications (51.2%) of medications prescribed to this frail, elderly cohort were potentially inappropriate by gold standard criteria. STOPPFrail-guided deprescribing led to the identification of 70.2% of the potentially inappropriate medications. Cohen's kappa was 0.60 (95% confidence interval 0.55-0.65; p < 0.001) indicating moderate agreement between STOPPFrail-guided and gold standard deprescribing. The positive predictive value of STOPPFrail was 89.3% indicating that the great majority of deprescribing decisions aligned with gold standard care. CONCLUSIONS: STOPPFrail removes an important barrier to deprescribing by explicitly highlighting circumstances where commonly used medications can be safely deprescribed in older people with advanced frailty. Our results suggest that in multi-morbid older patients with advanced frailty, the use of STOPPFrail criteria to address inappropriate polypharmacy may be reasonable alternative to specialist medication review.