Hydraulic jump dynamics above supercell thunderstorms.

The strongest supercell thunderstorms typically feature an above-anvil cirrus plume (AACP), which is a plume of ice and water vapor in the lower stratosphere that occurs downwind of the ambient stratospheric flow in the lee of overshooting deep convection. AACP-origin hydration of the stratosphere has a poorly constrained role in ozone destruction and surface warming. In this study, we use large eddy simulations corroborated by radar observations to understand the physics of AACP generation. We show that the overshooting top of a simulated supercell can act as a topographic obstacle and drive a hydraulic jump downstream at the tropopause, similar to a windstorm moving down the slope of a mountain but without solid topography. Once the jump is established, water vapor injection deep into the stratosphere may exceed 7 tonnes per second.

Practical rare event sampling for extreme mesoscale weather.

Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here, we present a new rare event sampling algorithm called quantile diffusion Monte Carlo (quantile DMC). Quantile DMC is a simple-to-use algorithm that can sample extreme tail behavior for a wide class of processes. We demonstrate the advantages of quantile DMC compared to other sampling methods and discuss practical aspects of implementing quantile DMC. To test the feasibility of quantile DMC for extreme mesoscale weather, we sample extremely intense realizations of two historical tropical cyclones, 2010 Hurricane Earl and 2015 Hurricane Joaquin. Our results demonstrate quantile DMC's potential to provide low-variance extreme weather statistics while highlighting the work that is necessary for quantile DMC to attain greater efficiency in future applications.