Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.

An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion-both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance-of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.

Farmers' adoption and perceived benefits of diversified crop rotations in the margins of U.S. Corn Belt.

Monoculture and simplified two-crop rotation systems compromise the ecosystem services essential to crop production, diminish agricultural productivity, and cause detrimental effects on the environment. In contrast to the simplified two-crop rotation, diversified crop rotation (DCR) refers to rotation systems that contain three or more crops. Despite multiple benefits generated by DCR, its usage has dwindled over the past several decades. This paper examined determinants of farmers' adoption decisions and perceived benefits of DCR in the west margins of the U.S. Corn Belt where crop diversity has declined. We analyzed 708 farmer responses from a farmer survey conducted in the eastern South Dakota in 2018, accounting for county-level climate variables, as well as cropland data, soil and topographic variables in close proximity of the farm. Our findings indicated that farmers were more likely to utilize DCR as an adaptive strategy to cope with water deficit and reduce soil erosion on marginal land. Additionally, livestock integration and organic farming helped necessitate DCR adoption and magnify its benefits. Producer concerns towards lack of equipment and new crop profitability diluted producers' interests in DCR practice and compromised its benefits. Enhanced technical and policy support, along with infrastructure and market development, could help producers fully utilize DCR benefits and expand DCR usage to more regions.