Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.

River hydrological seasonality influences life history strategies of tropical riverine fishes.

Under a particular set of selective forces, specific combinations of traits (strategies) will be favored in a given population, within the particular constraints of the considered species. For fishes, three demographic strategies have been suggested to result from adaptive responses to environmental predictability (i.e., seasonality): periodic, opportunistic and equilibrium [Winemiller KO, Rose KA (1992) Patterns of life-history diversification in North American fishes: implications for population regulation. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 49:2196-2218]. These strategies optimize fitness within predictable, unpredictable and stable systems, respectively. We tested these predictions of life history trait distribution along a gradient of hydrologic seasonality in West African tropical rivers at the drainage basin scale. We used logistic regression of species presence-absence data to test whether dominant life history traits of species caused community compositional change in response to a gradient of seasonality in hydrologic regime across basins. After accounting for taxonomic relatedness, species body size and statistical redundancy inherent to related traits, we found a higher proportion of species producing a great number of small oocytes, reproducing within a short period of time and presenting a low degree of parental care (the periodic strategy) in highly seasonal drainage basins (e.g., rivers with a short and predictable favorable season). Conversely, in more stable drainage basins (e.g., rivers with a wet season of several months), we observed a greater proportion of species producing small numbers of large oocytes, reproducing within a long period of time and providing parental care to their offspring (the equilibrium strategy). Our results suggest that distributions of tropical freshwater fishes at the drainage basin scale can be partly explained by the match between life history strategies and seasonality gradients in hydrological conditions.