Museum specimen data reveal emergence of a plant disease may be linked to increases in the insect vector population.

The emergence rate of new plant diseases is increasing due to novel introductions, climate change, and changes in vector populations, posing risks to agricultural sustainability. Assessing and managing future disease risks depends on understanding the causes of contemporary and historical emergence events. Since the mid-1990s, potato growers in the western United States, Mexico, and Central America have experienced severe yield loss from Zebra Chip disease and have responded by increasing insecticide use to suppress populations of the insect vector, the potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae). Despite the severe nature of Zebra Chip outbreaks, the causes of emergence remain unknown. We tested the hypotheses that (1) B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century in California and (2) such increases are related to climate change, specifically warmer winters. We compiled a data set of 87,000 museum specimen occurrence records across the order Hemiptera collected between 1900 and 2014. We then analyzed changes in B. cockerelli distribution using a hierarchical occupancy model using changes in background species lists to correct for collecting effort. We found evidence that B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century. However, these changes appear to be unrelated to climate changes, at least at the scale of our analysis. To the extent that species occupancy is related to abundance, our analysis provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that B. cockerelli population abundance has increased, but further work is needed to link B. cockerelli population dynamics to Zebra Chip epidemics. Finally, we demonstrate how this historical macro-ecological approach provides a general framework for comparative risk assessment of future pest and insect vector outbreaks.

California dragonfly and damselfly (Odonata) database: temporal and spatial distribution of species records collected over the past century.

The recently completed Odonata database for California consists of specimen records from the major entomology collections of the state, large Odonata collections outside of the state, previous literature, historical and recent field surveys, and from enthusiast group observations. The database includes 32,025 total records and 19,000 unique records for 106 species of dragonflies and damselflies, with records spanning 1879-2013. Records have been geographically referenced using the point-radius method to assign coordinates and an uncertainty radius to specimen locations. In addition to describing techniques used in data acquisition, georeferencing, and quality control, we present assessments of the temporal, spatial, and taxonomic distribution of records. We use this information to identify biases in the data, and to determine changes in species prevalence, latitudinal ranges, and elevation ranges when comparing records before 1976 and after 1979. The average latitude of where records occurred increased by 78 km over these time periods. While average elevation did not change significantly, the average minimum elevation across species declined by 108 m. Odonata distribution may be generally shifting northwards as temperature warms and to lower minimum elevations in response to increased summer water availability in low-elevation agricultural regions. The unexpected decline in elevation may also be partially the result of bias in recent collections towards centers of human population, which tend to occur at lower elevations. This study emphasizes the need to address temporal, spatial, and taxonomic biases in museum and observational records in order to produce reliable conclusions from such data.