Projected health and economic effects of the increase in childhood obesity during the COVID-19 pandemic in England: The potential cost of inaction.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in young children rose sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we estimate the potential future health and economic effects of these trends in England. METHODS: Using publicly available annual Body Mass Index (BMI) data from 2006-2022, we calculated the increase in overweight/obesity prevalence (BMI ≥85th reference percentile) during the COVID-19 pandemic among children aged 4-5 and 10-11, and variation by deprivation and ethnicity. We projected the impact of child BMI trends on adult health measures to estimate added lifelong medical and social costs. RESULTS: During 2020-2021 there were steep increases in overweight and obesity prevalence in children. By 2022, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 4-5 returned to expected levels based on pre-pandemic trends. However, overweight and obesity prevalence in children aged 10-11 persisted and was 4 percentage points (p<0.001) higher than expected, representing almost 56,000 additional children. The increase was twice as high in the most compared with the least deprived areas. The additional lifelong healthcare cost in this cohort will amount to £800 million with a cost to society of £8.7 billion. We did not find an increase in maternal obesity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, however, prevalence grew faster in the post pandemic period. DISCUSSION: The return of overweight and obesity prevalence to pre-pandemic trends in children aged 4-5 provides a clear policy target for effective intervention to tackle this growing and serious population health concern.

Trends in frequency of type 2 diabetes in Mexico and its relationship to dietary patterns and contextual factors / Tendencia en la frecuencia de diabetes tipo 2 en México y su relación con patrones alimentarios y factores contextuales

Objective: To analyse the evolution of the frequency of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its relationship to eating patterns in Mexico from 1961 to 2013, and the Gini coefficient, Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Mexico ranked sixth in world prevalence of diabetes in 2015 with an estimated 11.4 million Mexicans affected. Method: Using data from the Balance Sheets Food published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the means of apparent food consumption (kcal/person/day) were grouped by decades. Data for mortality rate for diabetes were obtained from 1990 until 2015. Spearman's correlation coefficient was calculated between the diabetes mellitus mortality rate and all food groups. Pearson's correlation explored the relationship between socio economic indicators and the prevalence of T2D diabetes. Results: The mortality rate for T2D has increased over the last decades. An increase of 647.9kcal/person/day in apparent food consumption was observed. Cereal and legume consumption decreased, while apparent sugar, animal food and animal fat and vegetable oil consumption increased substantially. HDI and GDP showed a directly proportional relationship to diabetes. Spearman's correlation coefficient was statistically significant only for sugar. The Gini coefficient suggests that in lower inequalities there is an increased frequency of diabetes. Conclusions: The increase in the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes was constant during the study period, which coincides with the increase in energy density of Mexican eating patterns from 1961 to 2013. The higher the Gini coefficient, HDI and GDP, the higher the mortality observed for diabetes

Objetivo: Analizar la evolución de la frecuencia de la diabetes tipo 2 y su relación con los patrones alimentarios en México de 1961 a 2013, así como el coeficiente de Gini, el índice de desarrollo humano (IDH) y el producto interno bruto (PIB). México ocupó el sexto lugar en la prevalencia mundial de diabetes en 2015, con una estimación de 11,4 millones de mexicanos afectados. Método: Utilizando los datos del balance de alimentos de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Agricultura y la Alimentación (FAO) se agruparon por décadas las medias de consumo aparentes de alimentos (kcal/persona/día. Se analizaron datos sobre la diabetes de 1990 hasta 2015. Se realizó una correlación de Spearman entre la tasa de mortalidad por diabetes y el consumo de los distintos grupos de alimentos. La correlación de Pearson exploró la relación entre los indicadores socioeconómicos y la prevalencia de diabetes. Resultados: La tasa de mortalidad por diabetes tipo 2 aumentó consistentemente. Se observó un incremento de 647,9kcal/persona/día en el consumo aparente de alimentos. Los cereales y las legumbres disminuyeron, mientras que los azúcares, los alimentos y las grasas animales, y los aceites vegetales, aumentaron. La correlación de Spearman fue estadísticamente significativa solo para el azúcar. A mayores IDH y PIB, mayor fue la prevalencia de diabetes. El coeficiente de Gini sugirió que, a menor desigualdad, mayor frecuencia de diabetes. Conclusiones: El aumento en la tasa de mortalidad de la diabetes tipo 2 fue constante durante el periodo de estudio, lo cual coincide con el aumento de la densidad energética de los patrones de alimentación en México de 1961 a 2013. A mejor coeficiente de Gini, IDH y PIB, se observó una mayor mortalidad por diabetes

Trends in frequency of type 2 diabetes in Mexico and its relationship to dietary patterns and contextual factors.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the evolution of the frequency of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its relationship to eating patterns in Mexico from 1961 to 2013, and the Gini coefficient, Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Mexico ranked sixth in world prevalence of diabetes in 2015 with an estimated 11.4 million Mexicans affected. METHOD: Using data from the Balance Sheets Food published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the means of apparent food consumption (kcal/person/day) were grouped by decades. Data for mortality rate for diabetes were obtained from 1990 until 2015. Spearman's correlation coefficient was calculated between the diabetes mellitus mortality rate and all food groups. Pearson's correlation explored the relationship between socio economic indicators and the prevalence of T2D diabetes. RESULTS: The mortality rate for T2D has increased over the last decades. An increase of 647.9kcal/person/day in apparent food consumption was observed. Cereal and legume consumption decreased, while apparent sugar, animal food and animal fat and vegetable oil consumption increased substantially. HDI and GDP showed a directly proportional relationship to diabetes. Spearman's correlation coefficient was statistically significant only for sugar. The Gini coefficient suggests that in lower inequalities there is an increased frequency of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the mortality rate of type 2 diabetes was constant during the study period, which coincides with the increase in energy density of Mexican eating patterns from 1961 to 2013. The higher the Gini coefficient, HDI and GDP, the higher the mortality observed for diabetes.

Costs along the service cascades for HIV testing and counselling and prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

OBJECTIVE: We estimate facility-level average annual costs per client along the HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) service cascades. DESIGN: Data collected covered the period 2011-2012 in 230 HTC and 212 PMTCT facilities in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia. METHODS: Input quantities and unit prices were collected, as were output data. Annual economic costs were estimated from the service providers' perspective using micro-costing. Average annual costs per client in 2013 United States dollars (US$) were estimated along the service cascades. RESULTS: For HTC, average cost per client tested ranged from US$5 (SD US$7) in Rwanda to US$31 (SD US$24) in South Africa, whereas average cost per client diagnosed as HIV-positive ranged from US$122 (SD US$119) in Zambia to US$1367 (SD US$2093) in Rwanda. For PMTCT, average cost per client tested ranged from US$18 (SD US$20) in Rwanda to US$89 (SD US$56) in South Africa; average cost per client diagnosed as HIV-positive ranged from US$567 (SD US$417) in Zambia to US$2021 (SD US$3210) in Rwanda; average cost per client on antiretroviral prophylaxis ranged from US$704 (SD US$610) in South Africa to US$2314 (SD US$3204) in Rwanda; and average cost per infant on nevirapine ranged from US$888 (SD US$884) in South Africa to US$2359 (SD US$3257) in Rwanda. CONCLUSION: We found important differences in unit costs along the HTC and PMTCT service cascades within and between countries suggesting that more efficient delivery of these services is possible.

Household expenditure in dental health care: national estimations in Mexico for 2000, 2002, and 2004.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the expenditure on dental care of Mexican households, analyze their trends, and determine the factors associated with the decision to spend and the amount of money spent in 2000, 2002, and 2004. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using the National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure for 2000, 2002, and 2004, the national dental health care expenditure was calculated. To facilitate comparability across years, all expenditure was converted to pesos of 2004, using the National Consumer Price Index (11.201 pesos per USD). Proportion of households incurring catastrophic expenditures was also estimated. To evaluate the association between environmental, household, and individual characteristics with the amount of dental health care expenditure, the Heckman regression model was used to control for self-selection bias. RESULTS: More than 6,467 million pesos (MP) were spent in 2000 (8.5 percent of all households had some expenditure), over 3,925 MP in 2002 (4 percent households), and above 5,136 MP in 2004 (5 percent households), with an average expenditure of $806, $1,000, and $987 pesos, respectively. Prevalence of catastrophic expenditure because of dental health care was 0.8 percent in 2000 compared to 0.01 and 1.8 percent in 2002 and 2004, respectively. The Heckman model showed that municipal development, stratum, and age of the head of household significantly influenced the amount spent on dental care in all 3 years. Household capacity to pay and wealth index had a positive and statistically significant association in the 3 years with the preceding decision to spend. CONCLUSIONS: Variables associated with the amount of expenditure and the decision of spending support the existence of inequities in health care financing in the Mexican population.