The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future. METHODS: Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017. RESULTS: The VMMC program averted 2,600-12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400-69,800 infections (2.3-5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000-171,000 infections (10-13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100-3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction. CONCLUSIONS: VMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.

A case study for a psychographic-behavioral segmentation approach for targeted demand generation in voluntary medical male circumcision.

Public health programs are starting to recognize the need to move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach in demand generation, and instead tailor interventions to the heterogeneity underlying human decision making. Currently, however, there is a lack of methods to enable such targeting. We describe a novel hybrid behavioral-psychographic segmentation approach to segment stakeholders on potential barriers to a target behavior. We then apply the method in a case study of demand generation for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among 15-29 year-old males in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Canonical correlations and hierarchical clustering techniques were applied on representative samples of men in each country who were differentiated by their underlying reasons for their propensity to get circumcised. We characterized six distinct segments of men in Zimbabwe, and seven segments in Zambia, according to their needs, perceptions, attitudes and behaviors towards VMMC, thus highlighting distinct reasons for a failure to engage in the desired behavior.

A national standards-based assessment on functionality of electronic medical records systems used in Kenyan public-Sector health facilities.

BACKGROUND: Variations in the functionality, content and form of electronic medical record systems (EMRs) challenge national roll-out of these systems as part of a national strategy to monitor HIV response. To enforce the EMRs minimum requirements for delivery of quality HIV services, the Kenya Ministry of Health (MoH) developed EMRs standards and guidelines. The standards guided the recommendation of EMRs that met a preset threshold for national roll-out. METHODS: Using a standards-based checklist, six review teams formed by the MoH EMRs Technical Working Group rated a total of 17 unique EMRs in 28 heath facilities selected by individual owners for their optimal EMR implementation. EMRs with an aggregate score of ≥60% against checklist criteria were identified by the MoH as suitable for upgrading and rollout to Kenyan public health facilities. RESULTS: In Kenya, existing EMRs scored highly in health information and reporting (mean score=71.8%), followed by security, system features, core clinical information, and order entry criteria (mean score=58.1%-55.9%), and lowest against clinical decision support (mean score=17.6%) and interoperability criteria (mean score=14.3%). Four EMRs met the 60.0% threshold: OpenMRS, IQ-Care, C-PAD and Funsoft. On the basis of the review, the MoH provided EMRs upgrade plans to owners of all the 17 systems reviewed. CONCLUSION: The standards-based review in Kenya represents an effort to determine level of conformance to the EMRs standards and prioritize EMRs for enhancement and rollout. The results support concentrated use of resources towards development of the four recommended EMRs. Further review should be conducted to determine the effect of the EMR-specific upgrade plans on the other 13 EMRs that participated in the review exercise.

Employing Demand-Based Volumetric Forecasting to Identify Potential for and Roles of Devices in Scale-Up of Medical Male Circumcision in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Devices for male circumcision (MC) are becoming available in 14 priority countries where MC is being implemented for HIV prevention. Understanding potential impact on demand for services is one important programmatic consideration because countries determine whether to scale up devices within MC programs. METHODS: A population-based survey measuring willingness to undergo MC, assuming availability of surgical MC and 3 devices, was conducted among 1250 uncircumcised men, ages 10-49 years in Zambia and 1000 uncircumcised men, ages 13-49 years in Zimbabwe. Simulated Test Market methodology was used to estimate incremental MC demand and the extent to which devices might be preferred over surgery, assuming availability of: surgical MC in both countries; the devices PrePex, ShangRing, and Unicirc in Zambia; and PrePex in Zimbabwe. RESULTS: Modeled estimates indicate PrePex has the potential to provide an overall increase in MC demand ranging from an estimated 13%-50%, depending on country and WHO prequalification ages, replacing 11%-41% of surgical procedures. In Zambia, ShangRing could provide 8% overall increase, replacing 45% of surgical procedures, and Unicirc could provide 30% overall increase, replacing 85% of surgical procedures. CONCLUSIONS: In both countries, devices have potential to increase overall demand for MC, assuming wide scale awareness and availability of circumcision by the devices. With consideration for age and country, PrePex may provide the greatest potential increase in demand, followed by Unicirc (measured in Zambia only) and ShangRing (also Zambia only). These results inform one program dimension for decision making on potential device introduction strategies; however, they must be considered within the broader programmatic context.