Enhancing the reliability of particulate matter sensing by multivariate Tobit model using weather and air quality data.

Low-cost particulate matter (PM) sensors have been widely used following recent sensor-technology advancements; however, inherent limitations of low-cost monitors (LCMs), which operate based on light scattering without an air-conditioning function, still restrict their applicability. We propose a regional calibration of LCMs using a multivariate Tobit model with historical weather and air quality data to improve the accuracy of ambient air monitoring, which is highly dependent on meteorological conditions, local climate, and regional PM properties. Weather observations and PM2.5 (fine inhalable particles with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm) concentrations from two regions in Korea, Incheon and Jeju, and one in Singapore were used as training data to build a visibility-based calibration model. To validate the model, field measurements were conducted by an LCM in Jeju and Singapore, where R2 and the error after applying the model in Jeju improved (from 0.85 to 0.88) and reduced by 44% (from 8.4 to 4.7 µg m-3), respectively. The results demonstrated that regional calibration involving air temperature, relative humidity, and other local climate parameters can efficiently correct the bias of the sensor. Our findings suggest that the proposed post-processing using the Tobit model with regional weather and air quality data enhances the applicability of LCMs.

An Interactive Online App for Predicting Diabetes via Machine Learning from Environment-Polluting Chemical Exposure Data.

The early prediction and identification of risk factors for diabetes may prevent or delay diabetes progression. In this study, we developed an interactive online application that provides the predictive probabilities of prediabetes and diabetes in 4 years based on a Bayesian network (BN) classifier, which is an interpretable machine learning technique. The BN was trained using a dataset from the Ansung cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiological Study (KoGES) in 2008, with a follow-up in 2012. The dataset contained not only traditional risk factors (current diabetes status, sex, age, etc.) for future diabetes, but it also contained serum biomarkers, which quantified the individual level of exposure to environment-polluting chemicals (EPC). Based on accuracy and the area under the curve (AUC), a tree-augmented BN with 11 variables derived from feature selection was used as our prediction model. The online application that implemented our BN prediction system provided a tool that performs customized diabetes prediction and allows users to simulate the effects of controlling risk factors for the future development of diabetes. The prediction results of our method demonstrated that the EPC biomarkers had interactive effects on diabetes progression and that the use of the EPC biomarkers contributed to a substantial improvement in prediction performance.

Hygroscopic properties of particulate matter and effects of their interactions with weather on visibility.

The hygroscopic property of particulate matter (PM) influencing light scattering and absorption is vital for determining visibility and accurate sensing of PM using a low-cost sensor. In this study, we examined the hygroscopic properties of coarse PM (CPM) and fine PM (FPM; PM2.5) and the effects of their interactions with weather factors on visibility. A censored regression model was built to investigate the relationships between CPM and PM2.5 concentrations and weather observations. Based on the observed and modeled visibility, we computed the optical hygroscopic growth factor, [Formula: see text], and the hygroscopic mass growth, [Formula: see text], which were applied to PM2.5 field measurement using a low-cost PM sensor in two different regions. The results revealed that the CPM and PM2.5 concentrations negatively affect visibility according to the weather type, with substantial modulation of the interaction between the relative humidity (RH) and PM2.5. The modeled [Formula: see text] agreed well with the observed [Formula: see text] in the RH range of the haze and mist. Finally, the RH-adjusted PM2.5 concentrations based on the visibility-derived hygroscopic mass growth showed the accuracy of the low-cost PM sensor improved. These findings demonstrate that in addition to visibility prediction, relationships between PMs and meteorological variables influence light scattering PM sensing.

Bayesian analysis of multivariate crash counts using copulas.

There has been growing interest in jointly modeling correlated multivariate crash counts in road safety research over the past decade. To assess the effects of roadway characteristics or environmental factors on crash counts by severity level or by collision type, various models including multivariate Poisson regression models, multivariate negative binomial regression models, and multivariate Poisson-Lognormal regression models have been suggested. We introduce more general copula-based multivariate count regression models with correlated random effects within a Bayesian framework. Our models incorporate the dependence among the multivariate crash counts by modeling multivariate random effects using copulas. Copulas provide a flexible way to construct valid multivariate distributions by decomposing any joint distribution into a copula and the marginal distributions. Overdispersion as well as general correlation structures including both positive and negative correlations in multivariate crash counts can easily be accounted for by this approach. Our copular-based models can also encompass previously suggested multivariate count regression models including multivariate Poisson-Gamma mixture models and multivariate Poisson-Lognormal regression models. The proposed method is illustrated with crash count data of five different severity levels collected from 451 three-leg unsignalized intersections in California.