Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team.

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%-70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

Evaluating internalization of multifunctionality by farm diversification: evidence from educational dairy farms in Japan.

Farm diversification by farmers' open-door policy generates opportunities for farmers to internalize externalities of multifunctionality. Although the educational function of agriculture is an example of such an open-door policy and is attracting growing attention, this function has been little explored. To promote farm diversification in this direction, this paper examined how and to what degree farmers internalize externalities of multifunctionality by focusing on the educational function provided by dairy farming, i.e., farming experience services, in Japan. The main findings were as follows. First, we can say that the educational function is determined by ordinary technical jointness as well as institutional jointness, which is represented by food culture and the agrarian heritage. Both the technical and institutional jointness enhanced the externality. Because of these two working factors, there is a U-shaped relationship between farm diversification and provision of farming experience services. Second, however, an empirical evaluation indicated that farmers only partially internalize educational externalities by treating them as supplementary services combined with processed milk products. Therefore, appropriate integrated management of these newly emerging educational services to become a viable market should be fully addressed in the future, especially for family farms.