HIV prevalence and incidence are no longer falling in southwest Uganda: evidence from a rural population cohort 1989-2005.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the 1990s, HIV-1 prevalence and incidence were falling in Uganda. Recently, some researchers have noticed that HIV-1 prevalence is levelling off. We examine prevalence, incidence, and sexual behaviour trends in a rural population cohort in Uganda over 16 years. METHODS: We report prevalence by survey round and incidence by calendar year from a prospective general population cohort study. Using logistic regression Wald tests, we examined casual partners, condom use, and pregnancies. We examined age at sexual debut by means of life tables. RESULTS: HIV-1 prevalence declined from 8.5% in 1990/1991 to 6.2% in 1999/2000, and thereafter rose to 7.7% in 2004/2005. Incidence (per 1000 person-years at risk) fell from 7.5 in 1990 to 4.1 in 1998, and thereafter increased to 5.0 by 2004. The 2005 incidence estimate reached an all-time low of 2.5, but the preliminary 2006 estimate shows a rise again. Incidence trends varied by age and sex. Some sexual behaviour indicators showed more risky behaviour in recent years compared with the 1990s, whereas others indicated that the reduction in risky behaviour that began in the 1990s continues. CONCLUSION: HIV-1 prevalence is rising in this cohort. Incidence is stabilizing, and shows signs of increasing among some subgroups. The extent to which changing sexual behaviour has played a role in these epidemiological trends is unclear, but it is likely to have contributed. To solidify the success that Uganda had throughout the 1990s in controlling the HIV epidemic, the efforts in HIV prevention need to be re-strengthened, using all strategies known.

The effect of malaria on mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected Ugandan adults.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effects of malaria parasitaemia and clinical malaria on mortality in HIV seropositive and seronegative adults. METHODS: A cohort of adults in rural Uganda were followed from 1990 to 1998. Participants attended routine clinic visits every 3 months and also when sick (interim visits). Information was collected on HIV serostatus, history of fever, current fever and malaria parasite levels. Malaria was categorized as any parasitaemia, significant parasitaemia (>/=1.25 x 10(6) parasites/ml at routine or >/=50 parasites per 200 white blood cells at interim visits) or clinical malaria. The effect of malaria on all-cause mortality was assessed using Cox models. RESULTS: The 222 HIV seropositive participants made 2762 routine visits and 1522 interim visits. During follow-up, of the 211 participants with full records, 69% had at least one episode of parasitaemia, 51% experienced significant parasitaemia and 28% had clinical malaria. There were 90 deaths in 922 person-years of observation. There were no significant associations between numbers of visits with any parasitaemia, significant parasitaemia or clinical malaria on mortality rates. The highest mortality rates were observed in those making four or more routine visits with significant parasitaemia [adjusted mortality rate ratio (RR) 3.27 compared with those making 0 such visits; P=0.078] and those making two or more visits with clinical malaria (adjusted RR 2.23; P=0.093). There was no significant interaction between any malaria category and HIV serostatus. Conclusion We found no evidence of a strong detrimental effect of malaria on all-cause mortality in HIV seropositive adults in this setting.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 Western blot: revised diagnostic criteria with fewer indeterminate results for epidemiological studies in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Western blot (WB) criteria in epidemiological studies in Africa exhibit an unacceptably high proportion of indeterminate results. New diagnostic criteria are urgently needed. METHODS: From 1989 to 1998, WB confirmatory tests were performed after weakly positive or discordant results of two enzyme immunoassays in a large Ugandan population. Enzyme immunoassays (EIA) on new sera taken prospectively from the same individuals one year later were used to assess the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status of these people. A logistic model was used to determine which set of WB bands was the most predictive of HIV status. Diagnostic criteria were then established, based on the likely HIV status determined using the predictive values and the intensity of the bands. RESULTS: Using 1109 WB tests, the best diagnostic criteria were based on only two bands (gp160 and p31). These criteria were validated on an independent sample of 587 WB tests, giving a high sensitivity and specificity (90.3% and 97.0%, respectively) and few indeterminate results (2.7%). These criteria classified correctly 96.3% of the sera. CONCLUSION: Our diagnostic criteria gave far better results in our population than the existing published criteria. This suggests that new criteria could be developed to improve WB interpretation in African settings.