Evaluation of the impact of artificial intelligence-assisted image interpretation on the diagnostic performance of clinicians in identifying pneumothoraces on plain chest X-ray: a multi-case multi-reader study.

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted image interpretation is a fast-developing area of clinical innovation. Most research to date has focused on the performance of AI-assisted algorithms in comparison with that of radiologists rather than evaluating the algorithms' impact on the clinicians who often undertake initial image interpretation in routine clinical practice. This study assessed the impact of AI-assisted image interpretation on the diagnostic performance of frontline acute care clinicians for the detection of pneumothoraces (PTX). METHODS: A multicentre blinded multi-case multi-reader study was conducted between October 2021 and January 2022. The online study recruited 18 clinician readers from six different clinical specialties, with differing levels of seniority, across four English hospitals. The study included 395 plain CXR images, 189 positive for PTX and 206 negative. The reference standard was the consensus opinion of two thoracic radiologists with a third acting as arbitrator. General Electric Healthcare Critical Care Suite (GEHC CCS) PTX algorithm was applied to the final dataset. Readers individually interpreted the dataset without AI assistance, recording the presence or absence of a PTX and a confidence rating. Following a 'washout' period, this process was repeated including the AI output. RESULTS: Analysis of the performance of the algorithm for detecting or ruling out a PTX revealed an overall AUROC of 0.939. Overall reader sensitivity increased by 11.4% (95% CI 4.8, 18.0, p=0.002) from 66.8% (95% CI 57.3, 76.2) unaided to 78.1% aided (95% CI 72.2, 84.0, p=0.002), specificity 93.9% (95% CI 90.9, 97.0) without AI to 95.8% (95% CI 93.7, 97.9, p=0.247). The junior reader subgroup showed the largest improvement at 21.7% (95% CI 10.9, 32.6), increasing from 56.0% (95% CI 37.7, 74.3) to 77.7% (95% CI 65.8, 89.7, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: The study indicates that AI-assisted image interpretation significantly enhances the diagnostic accuracy of clinicians in detecting PTX, particularly benefiting less experienced practitioners. While overall interpretation time remained unchanged, the use of AI improved diagnostic confidence and sensitivity, especially among junior clinicians. These findings underscore the potential of AI to support less skilled clinicians in acute care settings.

The Association between Blood Test Trends and Undiagnosed Cancer: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal.

Clinical guidelines include monitoring blood test abnormalities to identify patients at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. Noting blood test changes over time may improve cancer risk stratification by considering a patient's individual baseline and important changes within the normal range. We aimed to review the published literature to understand the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched until 15 May 2023 for studies assessing the association between blood test trends and undiagnosed cancer. We used descriptive summaries and narratively synthesised studies. We included 29 articles. Common blood tests were haemoglobin (24%, n = 7), C-reactive protein (17%, n = 5), and fasting blood glucose (17%, n = 5), and common cancers were pancreatic (29%, n = 8) and colorectal (17%, n = 5). Of the 30 blood tests studied, an increasing trend in eight (27%) was associated with eight cancer types, and a decreasing trend in 17 (57%) with 10 cancer types. No association was reported between trends in 11 (37%) tests and breast, bile duct, glioma, haematological combined, liver, prostate, or thyroid cancers. Our review highlights trends in blood tests that could facilitate the identification of individuals at increased risk of undiagnosed cancer. For most possible combinations of tests and cancers, there was limited or no evidence.

An overview of childhood cancer care and outcomes in Egypt: a narrative review.

Childhood cancer is an urgent priority in Egypt, owing to a large number of children with cancer, the great need and demand for paediatric oncology services, limited resources/funds and inferior survival outcomes. Therefore, an overview of the status of childhood cancer care in Egypt and an evidence-based approach towards optimal utilisation of resources/funds to improve this care are needed. This paper summarises key evidence about childhood cancer care and outcomes in Egypt. We conducted a narrative literature review using a structured search strategy of the MEDLINE database through the PubMed interface. All relevant evidence was summarised under five main sub-topics: (1) burden of childhood cancer in Egypt; (2) treatment approaches; (3) health outcomes; (4) costs and cost-effectiveness of treatment; and (5) barriers and facilitators to optimal childhood cancer care. We found high estimates of disease burden of childhood cancer in Egypt. Furthermore, childhood cancer treatment in Egypt is based on either implementing intensity-regulated protocols or adopting international protocols with or without adaptations to local contexts, leading to varying standards of care among the different treating centres. Limited data about the survival outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of treatment exist, although high-quality data from retrospective cohort studies were published from a large paediatric oncology centre (Children's Cancer Hospital Egypt-57357). As Egypt joins the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancers as a focus country, it is prepared to move towards streamlining national efforts to implement a national childhood cancer plan to advance care, improve health outcomes and optimise resource use. Through these efforts, Egypt could become a beacon of hope and a role model to other low- and middle-income countries seeking to improve their childhood cancer care.

Adequacy of clinical guideline recommendations for patients with low-risk cancer managed with monitoring: systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review was to summarize national and international guidelines that made recommendations for monitoring patients diagnosed with low-risk cancer. It appraised the quality of guidelines and determined whether the guidelines adequately identified patients for monitoring, specified which tests to use, defined monitoring intervals, and stated triggers for further intervention. It then assessed the evidence to support each recommendation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses, we searched PubMed and Turning Research into Practice databases for national and international guidelines' that were written in English and developed or updated between 2012 and 2023. Quality of individual guidelines was assessed using the AGREE II tool. RESULTS: Across the 41 published guidelines, 48 different recommendations were identified: 15 (31%) for prostate cancer, 11 (23%) for renal cancer, 6 (12.5%) for thyroid cancer, and 10 (21%) for blood cancer. The remaining 6 (12.5%) were for brain, gastrointestinal, oral cavity, bone and pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma cancer. When combining all guidelines, 48 (100%) stated which patients qualify for monitoring, 31 (65%) specified which tests to use, 25 (52%) provided recommendations for surveillance intervals, and 23 (48%) outlined triggers to initiate intervention. Across all cancer sites, there was a strong positive trend with higher levels of evidence being associated with an increased likelihood of a recommendation being specific (P = 0.001) and the evidence for intervals was based on expert opinion or other guidance. CONCLUSION: With the exception of prostate cancer, the evidence base for monitoring low-risk cancer is weak and consequently recommendations in clinical guidelines are inconsistent. There is a lack of direct evidence to support monitoring recommendations in the literature making guideline developers reliant on expert opinion, alternative guidelines, or indirect or nonspecific evidence.

AI assisted reader evaluation in acute CT head interpretation (AI-REACT): protocol for a multireader multicase study.

INTRODUCTION: A non-contrast CT head scan (NCCTH) is the most common cross-sectional imaging investigation requested in the emergency department. Advances in computer vision have led to development of several artificial intelligence (AI) tools to detect abnormalities on NCCTH. These tools are intended to provide clinical decision support for clinicians, rather than stand-alone diagnostic devices. However, validation studies mostly compare AI performance against radiologists, and there is relative paucity of evidence on the impact of AI assistance on other healthcare staff who review NCCTH in their daily clinical practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A retrospective data set of 150 NCCTH will be compiled, to include 60 control cases and 90 cases with intracranial haemorrhage, hypodensities suggestive of infarct, midline shift, mass effect or skull fracture. The intracranial haemorrhage cases will be subclassified into extradural, subdural, subarachnoid, intraparenchymal and intraventricular. 30 readers will be recruited across four National Health Service (NHS) trusts including 10 general radiologists, 15 emergency medicine clinicians and 5 CT radiographers of varying experience. Readers will interpret each scan first without, then with, the assistance of the qER EU 2.0 AI tool, with an intervening 2-week washout period. Using a panel of neuroradiologists as ground truth, the stand-alone performance of qER will be assessed, and its impact on the readers' performance will be analysed as change in accuracy (area under the curve), median review time per scan and self-reported diagnostic confidence. Subgroup analyses will be performed by reader professional group, reader seniority, pathological finding, and neuroradiologist-rated difficulty. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the UK Healthcare Research Authority (IRAS 310995, approved 13 December 2022). The use of anonymised retrospective NCCTH has been authorised by Oxford University Hospitals. The results will be presented at relevant conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT06018545.

Deceptive measures of progress in the NHS long-term plan for cancer: case-based vs. population-based measures.

The NHS Long Term Plan for cancer aims to increase early-stage diagnoses from 50% to 75% and to have 55,000 more people each year survive their cancer for at least 5 years following diagnosis. The targets measures are flawed and could be met without improving outcomes that really matter to patients. The proportion of early-stage diagnoses could increase, while the number of patients presenting at a late-stage remains the same. More patients could survive their cancer for longer, but lead time and overdiagnosis bias make it impossible to know whether anyone had their life prolonged. The target measures should switch from biased case-based measures to unbiased population-based measures that reflect the key objectives in cancer care: reducing late-stage incidence and mortality.

The Accuracy of Computed Tomography Angiography Compared With Technetium-99m Labelled Red Blood Cell Scintigraphy for the Diagnosis and Localization of Acute Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Imaging tests are commonly used as an initial or early investigation for patients presenting with suspected acute gastrointestinal bleeding (AGIB). However, controversy remains regarding which of two frequently used modalities, computed tomography angiography (CTA) or technetium-99m labelled red blood cell scintigraphy (RBCS), is most accurate. This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to compare the accuracy of CTA and RBCS for the detection and localization of AGIB. Five electronic databases were searched with additional manual searching of reference lists of relevant publications identified during the search. Two reviewers independently performed screening, data extraction and methodological assessments. Where appropriate, the bivariate model was used for meta-analysis of sensitivities and specificities for the detection of bleeding and Freeman-Tukey double-arcsine transformation used for meta-analysis of proportions of correctly localized bleeding sites. Forty-four unique primary studies were included: twenty-two investigating CTA, seventeen investigating RBCS and five investigating both modalities. Meta-analysis produced similar pooled sensitivities; 0.83 (95% CI 0.74-0.90) and 0.84 (0.68-0.92) for CTA and RBCS respectively. Pooled specificity for CTA was higher than RBCS; 0.90 (0.72-0.97) and 0.84 (0.71-0.91) respectively. However, differences were not statistically significant. CTA was superior to RBCS in correctly localizing bleeding; pooled proportions of 1.00 (0.98-1.00) and 0.90 (0.83-0.96) respectively (statistically significant difference, P < 0.001). There is no evidence that CTA and RBCS have different diagnostic performance with respect to the detection of AGIB. However, CTA is superior to RBCS in terms of correctly localising the bleeding site, supporting usage of CTA over RBCS as the first line imaging investigation.

Barriers and Facilitators to Implementing Cost-Effective Evidence-Based Childhood Cancer Treatment in a Resource-Limited Setting in Egypt: A Qualitative Interview Study.

PURPOSE: Childhood cancer treatment is complex, resource-intensive, and expensive, and resource-limited settings would benefit from providing cost-effective treatment approaches on the basis of evidence. Effective implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment requires knowledge about factors influencing its use. In this study, we determined the clinicians' perceptions of the barriers and facilitators to implementing cost-effective evidence-based treatment for children with cancer in a resource-limited pediatric oncology setting in Egypt. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study on the basis of semistructured interviews with senior clinicians who make high-level decisions on treatment protocols and tailored decisions for the atypically complicated group of patients. Purposive sampling was used to recruit the participants. Thematic analysis was conducted semantically to develop themes of barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Fourteen participants agreed to participate in the study: nine pediatric oncologists; three surgeons; and two radiation oncologists. We identified four main themes of barriers and facilitators: awareness and orientation; knowledge, skills, and attitudes; system, resources, and context; and clinical practice. The main barriers included absence of easily available costs/cost-effectiveness data, limited resources and inability to pay for expensive novel (cost-effective) drugs, and gap between evidence and practice. The main facilitators included adopting standard treatment protocols on the basis of clinical effectiveness, leadership support, availability of patients' clinical and cost data from local context, and existing knowledge and skills in clinical research and health economic evaluation. The interview participants also provided suggestions to promote the implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment in priority areas. CONCLUSION: Our study findings provide an understanding of the barriers and facilitators affecting the implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment for childhood cancers in Egypt. We provide practical recommendations to address the implementation gaps with implications on practice, policy, and research.

Multi-cancer early detection test in symptomatic patients referred for cancer investigation in England and Wales (SYMPLIFY): a large-scale, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of circulating tumour DNA could stratify cancer risk in symptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a methylation-based multicancer early detection (MCED) diagnostic test in symptomatic patients referred from primary care. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, observational study at National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites in England and Wales. Participants aged 18 or older referred with non-specific symptoms or symptoms potentially due to gynaecological, lung, or upper or lower gastrointestinal cancers were included and gave a blood sample when they attended for urgent investigation. Participants were excluded if they had a history of or had received treatment for an invasive or haematological malignancy diagnosed within the preceding 3 years, were taking cytotoxic or demethylating agents that might interfere with the test, or had participated in another study of a GRAIL MCED test. Patients were followed until diagnostic resolution or up to 9 months. Cell-free DNA was isolated and the MCED test performed blinded to the clinical outcome. MCED predictions were compared with the diagnosis obtained by standard care to establish the primary outcomes of overall positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Outcomes were assessed in participants with a valid MCED test result and diagnostic resolution. SYMPLIFY is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN10226380) and has completed follow-up at all sites. FINDINGS: 6238 participants were recruited between July 7 and Nov 30, 2021, across 44 hospital sites. 387 were excluded due to staff being unable to draw blood, sample errors, participant withdrawal, or identification of ineligibility after enrolment. Of 5851 clinically evaluable participants, 376 had no MCED test result and 14 had no information as to final diagnosis, resulting in 5461 included in the final cohort for analysis with an evaluable MCED test result and diagnostic outcome (368 [6·7%] with a cancer diagnosis and 5093 [93·3%] without a cancer diagnosis). The median age of participants was 61·9 years (IQR 53·4-73·0), 3609 (66·1%) were female and 1852 (33·9%) were male. The MCED test detected a cancer signal in 323 cases, in whom 244 cancer was diagnosed, yielding a positive predictive value of 75·5% (95% CI 70·5-80·1), negative predictive value of 97·6% (97·1-98·0), sensitivity of 66·3% (61·2-71·1), and specificity of 98·4% (98·1-98·8). Sensitivity increased with increasing age and cancer stage, from 24·2% (95% CI 16·0-34·1) in stage I to 95·3% (88·5-98·7) in stage IV. For cases in which a cancer signal was detected among patients with cancer, the MCED test's prediction of the site of origin was accurate in 85·2% (95% CI 79·8-89·3) of cases. Sensitivity 80·4% (95% CI 66·1-90·6) and negative predictive value 99·1% (98·2-99·6) were highest for patients with symptoms mandating investigation for upper gastrointestinal cancer. INTERPRETATION: This first large-scale prospective evaluation of an MCED diagnostic test in a symptomatic population demonstrates the feasibility of using an MCED test to assist clinicians with decisions regarding urgency and route of referral from primary care. Our data provide the basis for a prospective, interventional study in patients presenting to primary care with non-specific signs and symptoms. FUNDING: GRAIL Bio UK.

Association of Weight Loss in Ambulatory Care Settings With First Diagnosis of Lung Cancer in the US.

Importance: Lung cancer, the US's leading cause of cancer death, is often diagnosed following presentation to health care settings with symptoms, and many patients present with late-stage disease. Objective: To investigate the association between weight loss and subsequent diagnosis of incident lung cancer in an ambulatory care population and to assess whether recorded weight change had higher odds of lung cancer diagnosis than objective measurements. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study included patients visiting a US academic medical center between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2019. Data were derived from US ambulatory care electronic health records from the University of Washington Medical Center linked to the local Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry. Cases were identified from patients who had a primary lung cancer diagnosis between 2012 and 2019; controls were matched on age, sex, smoking status, and presenting to the same type of ambulatory clinic as cases. Data were analyzed from March 2022 through January 2023. Exposure: Continuous and categorical weight change were assessed. Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratios estimating the likelihood of a diagnosis of lung cancer were calculated using univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression. Results: A total of 625 patients aged 40 years or older with a first primary lung cancer diagnosis and 4606 matched controls were included (1915 [36.6%] ages 60 to 69 years; 418 [8.0%] Asian, 389 [7.4%] Black, 4092 [78.2%] White). In unadjusted analyses, participants with weight loss of 1% to 3% (odds ratio [OR], 1.12; 95% CI, 0.88-1.41), 3% to 5% (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.99-1.88), or 5% to 10% (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.82-1.85) over a 2-year period did not have statistically significantly increased risk of lung cancer diagnosis compared with those who maintained a steady weight. However, participants with weight loss of 10% to 50% had more than twice the odds of a lung cancer diagnosis (OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.27-4.05). Most categories of weight loss showed significant associations with an increased risk of lung cancer diagnosis for at least 6 months prior to diagnosis. Patients who had weight loss both recorded in clinicians' notes and measured had higher odds of lung cancer compared with patients who had only recorded (OR, 1.26; odds; 95% CI, 1.04-1.52) or measured (OR, 8.53; 95% CI, 6.99-10.40) weight loss. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-control study, weight loss in the prior 6 months was associated with incident lung cancer diagnosis and was present whether weight loss was recorded as a symptom by the clinician or based on changes in routinely measured weight, demonstrating a potential opportunity for early diagnosis. The association between measured and recorded weight loss by clinicians presents novel results for the US.

Long-Term Effect of Weight Regain Following Behavioral Weight Management Programs on Cardiometabolic Disease Incidence and Risk: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Behavioral weight management programs (BWMPs) enhance weight loss in the short term, but longer term cardiometabolic effects are uncertain as weight is commonly regained. We assessed the impact of weight regain after BWMPs on cardiovascular risk factors, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Trial registries, 11 databases, and forward-citation searching (latest search, December 19) were used to identify articles published in English, from any geographical region. Randomized trials of BWMPs in adults with overweight/obesity reporting cardiometabolic outcomes at ≥12 months at and after program end were included. Differences between more intensive interventions and comparator groups were synthesized using mixed-effects, meta-regression, and time-to-event models to assess the impact of weight regain on cardiovascular disease incidence and risk. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-four trials reporting on ≥1 cardiometabolic outcomes with a median follow-up of 28 (range, 11-360) months after program end were included. Median baseline participant body mass index was 33 kg/m2; median age was 51 years. Eight and 15 study arms (7889 and 4202 participants, respectively) examined the incidence of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, respectively, with imprecise evidence of a lower incidence for at least 5 years. Weight regain in BWMPs relative to comparators reduced these differences. One and 5 years after program end, total cholesterol/HDL (high-density lipoprotein) ratio was 1.5 points lower at both times (82 studies; 19 003 participants), systolic blood pressure was 1.5 mm mercury and 0.4 mm lower (84 studies; 30 836 participants), and HbA1c (%) 0.38 lower at both times (94 studies; 28 083 participants). Of the included studies, 22% were judged at high risk of bias; removing these did not meaningfully change results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite weight regain, BWMPs reduce cardiometabolic risk factors with effects lasting at least 5 years after program end and dwindling with weight regain. Evidence that they reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease or diabetes is less certain. Few studies followed participants for ≥5 years. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42018105744.

ChroniSense National Early Warning Score Study: Comparison Study of a Wearable Wrist Device to Measure Vital Signs in Patients Who Are Hospitalized.

BACKGROUND: Wearable devices could be used to continuously monitor vital signs in patients who are hospitalized, but they require validation. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical validity of the prototype of a semiautomated wearable wrist device (ChroniSense Polso) to measure vital signs and provide National Early Warning Scores (NEWSs). METHODS: Vital signs and NEWSs measured using the wearable device were compared with standard, nurse-lead manual measurements. We enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) who required vital sign measurements at least every 6 hours in a UK teaching district general hospital. Wearable device measurements were not used for clinical decision-making. The primary outcome was the agreement on the individual National Early Warning parameter scores and vital sign measurements: respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, and heart rate. Secondary outcomes were the agreement on the total NEWS, incidence of adverse events, and user acceptance. To compare the wearable device measurements with the standard measurements, we analyzed vital sign measurements by limits of agreement (Bland-Altman analysis) and conducted κ agreement analyses for NEWSs. A user experience survey was conducted with questions about comfort of the wrist device, safety, preference, and use. RESULTS: We included 132 participants in the study, with a mean age of 62 (SD 15.81) years; most of them were men (102/132, 77.3%). The highest weighted κ values were found for heart rate (0.69, 95% CI 0.57-0.81 for all 385 measurements) and systolic blood pressure (0.39, 95% CI 0.30-0.47 for all 339 measurements). Weighted κ values were low for respiration rate (0.03, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.05 for all 445 measurements), temperature (0, 95% CI 0-0 for all 231 measurements), and oxygen saturation (-0.11, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.02 for all 187 measurements). Weighted κ using Cicchetti-Allison weights showed κ of 0.20 (95% CI 0.03-0.38) when using all 56 total NEWSs. The user acceptance survey found that approximately half (45/91, 49%) of the participants found it comfortable to wear the device and liked its appearance. Most (85/92, 92%) of them said that they would wear the device during their next hospital visit, and many (74/92, 80%) said that they would recommend it to others. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the promising use of a prototype wearable device to measure vital signs in a hospital setting. Agreement between the standard measurements and wearable device measurements was acceptable for systolic blood pressure and heart rate, but needed to be improved for respiration rate, temperature, and oxygen saturation. Future studies need to improve the clinical validity of this wearable device. Large studies are required to assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of wearable devices for vital sign measurement. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-028219.

Weight regain and mental health outcomes following behavioural weight management programmes: A systematic review with meta-analyses.

Behavioural weight management programmes (BWMPs) lead to weight loss but subsequent weight regain may harm mental health outcomes. We searched for randomised trials of BWMPs in adults with overweight/obesity with follow-up ≥12 months from baseline that measured weight change both at and after programme-end. We included only studies reporting mental health at or after programme-end. We meta-analysed changes in various mental health outcomes using a random-effects model by nature of the comparator group and by time since programme end. Subgroup analysis explored heterogeneity. We used mixed models and meta-regression to analyse the association between change in weight and change in depression and/or anxiety over time, with higher scores indicating greater depression and/or anxiety. We included 47 studies. When comparing BWMPs (diet and/or exercise) to control, most estimates included the possibility of no difference, but pooled estimates for psychological wellbeing, self-esteem and mental-health composite scores at programme-end, anxiety at 1-6 months, and depression at 7-12 months after programme-end suggested improvements in intervention arms relative to control, with 95% CIs excluding no difference. Pooled estimates found no evidence that BWMPs harmed mental health at programme end or beyond. Mental health composite scores at programme-end favoured diet and exercise interventions over diet alone, with 95% CIs excluding no difference. All other measures and timepoints included the possibility of no difference or could not be meta-analysed due to high heterogeneity or a paucity of data. Mixed models and meta-regression of the association between change in depression and/or anxiety scores over time, and change in weight, were inconclusive. Despite weight regain after BWMPs, our meta-analyses found no evidence of mental health harm and some evidence that BWMPs may improve some dimensions of mental health at and after programme-end.

BLOod Test Trend for cancEr Detection (BLOTTED): protocol for an observational and prediction model development study using English primary care electronic health record data.

BACKGROUND: Simple blood tests can play an important role in identifying patients for cancer investigation. The current evidence base is limited almost entirely to tests used in isolation. However, recent evidence suggests combining multiple types of blood tests and investigating trends in blood test results over time could be more useful to select patients for further cancer investigation. Such trends could increase cancer yield and reduce unnecessary referrals. We aim to explore whether trends in blood test results are more useful than symptoms or single blood test results in selecting primary care patients for cancer investigation. We aim to develop clinical prediction models that incorporate trends in blood tests to identify the risk of cancer. METHODS: Primary care electronic health record data from the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database will be accessed and linked to cancer registrations and secondary care datasets. Using a cohort study design, we will describe patterns in blood testing (aim 1) and explore associations between covariates and trends in blood tests with cancer using mixed-effects, Cox, and dynamic models (aim 2). To build the predictive models for the risk of cancer, we will use dynamic risk modelling (such as multivariate joint modelling) and machine learning, incorporating simultaneous trends in multiple blood tests, together with other covariates (aim 3). Model performance will be assessed using various performance measures, including c-statistic and calibration plots. DISCUSSION: These models will form decision rules to help general practitioners find patients who need a referral for further investigation of cancer. This could increase cancer yield, reduce unnecessary referrals, and give more patients the opportunity for treatment and improved outcomes.

Face masks while exercising trial (MERIT): a cross-over randomised controlled study.

OBJECTIVES: Physical exertion is a high-risk activity for aerosol emission of respiratory pathogens. We aimed to determine the safety and tolerability of healthy young adults wearing different types of face mask during moderate-to-high intensity exercise. DESIGN: Cross-over randomised controlled study, completed between June 2021 and January 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Volunteers aged 18-35 years, who exercised regularly and had no significant pre-existing health conditions. INTERVENTIONS: Comparison of wearing a surgical, cloth and filtering face piece (FFP3) mask to no mask during 4×15 min bouts of exercise. Exercise was running outdoors or indoor rowing at moderate-to-high intensity, with consistency of distance travelled between bouts confirmed using a smartphone application (Strava). Each participant completed each bout in random order. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was change in oxygen saturations. Secondary outcomes were change in heart rate, perceived impact of face mask wearing during exercise and willingness to wear a face mask for future exercise. RESULTS: All 72 volunteers (mean age 23.9) completed the study. Changes in oxygen saturations did not exceed the prespecified non-inferiority margin (2% difference) with any mask type compared with no mask. At the end of exercise, the estimated average difference in oxygen saturations for cloth mask was -0.07% (95% CI -0.39% to 0.25%), for surgical 0.28% (-0.04% to 0.60%) and for FFP3 -0.21% (-0.53% to 0.11%). The corresponding estimated average difference in heart rate for cloth mask was -1.20 bpm (95% CI -4.56 to 2.15), for surgical 0.36 bpm (95% CI -3.01 to 3.73) and for FFP3 0.52 bpm (95% CI -2.85 to 3.89). Wearing a face mask caused additional symptoms such as breathlessness (n=13, 18%) and dizziness (n=7, 10%). 33 participants broadly supported face mask wearing during exercise, particularly indoors, but 22 were opposed. CONCLUSION: This study adds to previous findings (mostly from non-randomised studies) that exercising at moderate-to-high intensity wearing a face mask appears to be safe in healthy, young adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04932226.

Cost-effectiveness of childhood cancer treatment in Egypt: Lessons to promote high-value care in a resource-limited setting based on real-world evidence.

Background: Childhood cancer in low-and middle-income countries is a global health priority, however, the perception that treatment is unaffordable has potentially led to scarce investment in resources, contributing to inferior survival. In this study, we analysed real-world data about the cost-effectiveness of treating 8886 children with cancer at a large resource-limited paediatric oncology setting in Egypt, between 2013 and 2017, stratified by cancer type, stage/risk, and disease status. Methods: Childhood cancer costs (USD 2019) were calculated from a health-system perspective, and 5-year overall survival was used to represent clinical effectiveness. We estimated cost-effectiveness as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (cost/DALY) averted, adjusted for utility decrement for late-effect morbidity and mortality. Findings: For all cancers combined, cost/DALY averted was $1384 (0.5 × GDP/capita), which is very cost-effective according to WHO-CHOICE thresholds. Ratio of cost/DALY averted to GDP/capita varied by cancer type/sub-type and disease severity (range: 0.1-1.6), where it was lowest for Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma, and highest for high-risk acute leukaemia, and high-risk neuroblastoma. Treatment was cost-effective (ratio <3 × GDP/capita) for all cancer types/subtypes and risk/stage groups, except for relapsed/refractory acute leukaemia, and relapsed/progressive patients with brain tumours, hepatoblastoma, Ewing sarcoma, and neuroblastoma. Treatment cost-effectiveness was affected by the high costs and inferior survival of advanced-stage/high-risk and relapsed/progressive cancers. Interpretation: Childhood cancer treatment is cost-effective in a resource-limited setting in Egypt, except for some relapsed/progressive cancer groups. We present evidence-based recommendations and lessons to promote high-value in care delivery, with implications on practice and policy. Funding: Egypt Cancer Network; NIHR School for Primary Care Research; ALSAC.