Playing defense? Health care in the era of Covid.

Health workers have to balance their own welfare vs. that of their patients particularly when patients have a readily transmissible disease. These risks become more consequential during an outbreak, and especially so when the chance of severe illness or mortality is non-negligible. One way to reduce risk is by reducing contact with patients. Such changes could be along the intensive or extensive margins. Using data on primary care outpatient encounters during the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic, I document important changes in the intensity of provider-patient interactions. Significantly, I find that adherence to clinical guidelines, the probability that routine procedures such as physical examinations were completed, and even the quality of information given by health providers, all declined sharply. I present evidence that these effects likely reflect risk mitigation behavior by health providers.

In Nigeria, Stillbirths And Newborn Deaths Increased During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has put severe pressure on health care systems worldwide. Although attention has been focused on COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, some experts have warned about potentially devastating secondary health effects. These effects may be most severe in low- and middle-income countries with already weak health care systems. This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on early infant deaths, a question that is currently unsettled. We present new evidence from Nigeria showing that early infant deaths have significantly increased during the pandemic. Using data on the birth outcomes of a large and diverse cohort of pregnant women enrolled in a prospective study and a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, we found a 1.1-percentage-point (22 percent) increase and a 0.72-percentage-point (23 percent) increase, respectively, in stillbirths and newborn deaths. Our findings show that the health effects of the pandemic extend beyond counted COVID-19 deaths. If these findings generalize to other low- and middle-income countries, they may indicate that the hard-won gains in child survival made during the past two decades are at risk of being reversed amid the ongoing pandemic. Policies addressing disruptions to health services delivery and providing support to vulnerable groups-specifically to households with pregnant women-will be critical as the pandemic continues.

Money and my mind: Maternal cash transfers and mental health.

This paper documents important mental health spillovers in the context of a program that offered pregnant women modest cash incentives to use pre- and perinatal health care services. Program participation was randomized and the payments were made after the birth of the child (and after the completion of an endline mental health assessment). I present causal evidence that the program led to improvements in mothers' mental health. The effect size ranges from a 1-3 percentage point reduction in postpartum depression measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. I present suggestive evidence that these beneficial effects on mental health may be related to program-induced improvements in child health. These results provide novel evidence that programs designed to improve birth outcomes may generate unanticipated spillover effects on mental health.

Pan[dem]ic! Rational Risk Avoidance During a Health Pandemic.

During a health pandemic health workers have to balance two competing objectives: their own welfare vs. that of their patients. Intuitively, attending to sick patients during a pandemic poses risks to health workers because some of these patients could be infected. One way to reduce risk is by reducing contact with patients. These changes could be on the extensive margin, e.g., seeing fewer patients; or, more insidiously, on the intensive margin, by reducing the duration/intensity of contact. This paper studies risk avoidance behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic and examines implications for patient welfare. Using primary data on thousands of patient-provider interactions between January 2019 and October 2020 in Nigeria, I present evidence of risk compensation by health workers along the intensive margin. For example, the probability that a patient receives a physical examination has dropped by about a third. I find suggestive evidence of negative effects on health outcomes.

Healthcare at the Beginning of Life and Child Survival: Evidence from a Cash Transfer Experiment in Nigeria.

Households in poor countries are encouraged (and sometimes coerced) to increase investments in formal health care services during pregnancy and childbirth. Is this good policy? The answer to a large extent depends on its effects on child welfare. We study the effects of a cash transfer program in Nigeria in which households were offered a payment of $14 conditioned on uptake of health services. We show that the transfer led to a large increase in uptake and a substantial increase in child survival driven by a decrease in in-utero child deaths. We present evidence suggesting that the key driver is prenatal health investments.

Maternal Cash Transfers Led To Increases In Facility Deliveries And Improved Quality Of Delivery Care In Nigeria.

Ninety-nine percent of global maternal deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The high mortality rates are often attributed to a large portion of births occurring outside of formal health care facilities. This has prompted the creation of programs to promote the use of formal delivery care. However, poor-quality care in health facilities in low- and middle-income countries is well documented. It is not clear that shifting births into health facilities in these settings necessarily leads to better-quality care. We present results from a randomized controlled trial in Nigeria that evaluated a conditional cash transfer intervention that paid pregnant women to deliver in a health facility. We found that the intervention led to a 41 percent increase in facility deliveries. We also found improvements in the quality of delivery care (as a result of more births taking place in formal health care settings) and in overall satisfaction with care. We found no evidence of a reduction in preventable complications that led to maternal deaths, though we found some improvements in self-reported health. Our results indicate that promoting facility deliveries can improve the quality of care received, even in settings where formal care quality is poor. However, modest quality improvements might not be sufficient to substantially improve health outcomes.

Utilization and quality: How the quality of care influences demand for obstetric care in Nigeria.

This paper examines the association between health facility quality, subjective perceptions, and utilization of obstetric care. We draw on unique survey data from Nigeria describing the quality of care at rural primary health care facilities and the utilization of obstetric care by households in the service areas of these facilities. Constructing a quality index using the detailed survey data, we show that facility quality is positively related to perceptions of quality and utilization. Disaggregating quality into structural, process and outcome dimensions, we find a consistently strong relationship only between utilization and structural measures of quality. The results suggest that efforts to improve quality may involve a trade-off between investing in dimensions that are more easily observed by households, which will influence utilization, and investing in dimensions that are more closely related to outcomes.

Health care at birth and infant mortality: Evidence from nighttime deliveries in Nigeria.

High rates of home births in developing countries are often linked to high rates of newborn deaths, but there is considerable debate about how much of this is causal. This paper weighs in on this question by analyzing data on the timing of birth, health care utilization, and mortality for a sample of births between 2009-2014 in 7021 rural Nigerian households. First, we show that timing of birth is strongly linked to use of institutional care: women with a nighttime birth are significantly less likely to use a health facility because of the difficulties associated with accessing care at night. In turn, this is associated with a sharp increase in the rate of newborn mortality at night. Leveraging variation in household proximity to a health care facility that offers 24-h coverage, we show that this increase in mortality is plausibly due to lack of formal health care at the time of birth: infants born at night to households without a nearby health care facility that offers 24-h coverage, experience an increase in mortality equivalent to about 10 additional newborn deaths per 1000 live births. In contrast, when households have a nearby health facility that provides care at night, there is no detectable increase in mortality. These results suggest that well-designed policies to increase access to (and quality of) formal care at birth may lead to significant reductions in newborn deaths.

Going to scale: design and implementation challenges of a program to increase access to skilled birth attendants in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The lack of availability of skilled providers in low- and middle- income countries is considered to be an important barrier to achieving reductions in maternal and child mortality. However, there is limited research on programs increasing the availability of skilled birth attendants in developing countries. We study the implementation of the Nigeria Midwives Service Scheme, a government program that recruited and deployed nearly 2,500 midwives to rural primary health care facilities across Nigeria in 2010. An outcome evaluation carried out by this team found only a modest impact on the use of antenatal care and no measurable impact on skilled birth attendance. This paper draws on perspectives of policymakers, program midwives, and community residents to understand why the program failed to have the desired impact. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with federal, state and local government policy makers and with MSS midwives. We also conducted focus groups with community stakeholders including community leaders and male and female residents. RESULTS: Our data reveal a range of design, implementation and operational challenges ranging from insufficient buy-in by key stakeholders at state and local levels, to irregular and in some cases total non-provision of agreed midwife benefits that likely contributed to the program's lack of impact. These challenges not only created a deep sense of dissatisfaction with the program but also had practical impacts on service delivery likely affecting households' uptake of services. CONCLUSION: This paper highlights the challenge of effectively scaling up maternal and child health interventions. Our findings emphasize the critical importance of program design, particularly when programs are implemented at scale; the need to identify and involve key stakeholders during planning and implementation; the importance of clearly defining lines of authority and responsibility that align with existing structures; and the necessity for multi-faceted interventions that address multiple barriers at the same time.

Does a ban on informal health providers save lives? Evidence from Malawi.

Informal health providers ranging from drug vendors to traditional healers account for a large fraction of health care provision in developing countries. They are, however, largely unlicensed and unregulated leading to concern that they provide ineffective and, in some cases, even harmful care. A new and controversial policy tool that has been proposed to alter household health seeking behavior is an outright ban on these informal providers. The theoretical effects of such a ban are ambiguous. In this paper, we study the effect of a ban on informal (traditional) birth attendants imposed by the Malawi government in 2007. To measure the effect of the ban, we use a difference-in-difference strategy exploiting variation across time and space in the intensity of exposure to the ban. Our most conservative estimates suggest that the ban decreased use of traditional attendants by about 15 percentage points. Approximately three quarters of this decline can be attributed to an increase in use of the formal sector and the remainder is accounted for by an increase in relative/friend-attended births. Despite the rather large shift from the informal to the formal sector, we do not find any evidence of a statistically significant reduction in newborn mortality on average. The results are robust to a triple difference specification using young children as a control group. We examine several explanations for this result and find evidence consistent with quality of formal care acting as a constraint on improvements in newborn health.

Development of a Model for the Validation of Work Relative Value Units for the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) uses the resource-based relative value scale to pay physicians and other practitioners for professional services. The work values measure the relative levels of professional time and intensity (physical effort, skills, and stress) associated with providing services. CMS asked RAND to develop a model to validate the work values using external data sources. RAND's goal was to test the feasibility of using external data and regression analysis to create prediction models to validate work values. Data availability limited the models to surgical procedures and selected medical procedures typically performed in an operating room. Key findings from the study include the following: RAND estimates of intra-service time using external data are typically shorter than the current CMS estimates. Model assumptions about how shorter intra-service times affect procedure intensity have implications for the work estimates. RAND estimates for work on average were similar to current work values if shorter intra-service time is assumed to increase procedure intensity and were on average up to 10 percent lower than current work values if shorter intra-service time is assumed to not impact on procedure intensity. The RAND estimates could be used for two key applications: CMS could flag codes as potentially misvalued if the RAND estimates are notably different from the current CMS values. CMS could also use the RAND estimates as an independent estimate of the work values. In some cases, further review will identify a clinical rationale for why a code is valued differently than the RAND model predictions.

Do higher salaries lower physician migration?

It is believed that low wages are an important reason why doctors and nurses in developing countries migrate, and this has led to a call for higher wages for health professionals in developing countries. In this paper, we provide some of the first estimates of the impact of raising health workers' salaries on migration. Using aggregate panel data on the stock of foreign doctors in 16 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, we explore the effect of a wage increase programme in Ghana on physician migration. We find evidence that 6 years after the implementation of this programme, the foreign stock of Ghanaian doctors abroad had fallen by approximately 10% relative to the estimated counterfactual. This result should be interpreted with caution, however, given the sensitivity of the results to changes in model specification.

Implementing a Resource-Based Relative Value Scale Fee Schedule for Physician Services: An Assessment of Policy Options for the California Workers' Compensation Program.

A RAND study used 2011 medical data to examine the impact of implementing a resource-based relative value scale to pay for physician services under the California workers' compensation system. Current allowances under the Official Medical Fee Schedule are approximately 116 percent of Medicare-allowed amounts and, by law, will transition to 120 percent of Medicare over four years. Using Medicare policies to establish the fee-schedule amounts, aggregate allowances are estimated to decrease for four types of service by the end of the transition in 2017: anesthesia (-16.5 percent), surgery (-19.9 percent), radiology (-16.5 percent), and pathology (-29.0 percent). Aggregate allowances for evaluation and management visits are estimated to increase by 39.5 percent. Allowances for services classified as "medicine" in the Current Procedural Terminology codebook will increase by 17.3 percent. In the aggregate, across all services, allowances are projected to increase 11.9 percent. Because most specialties furnish different types of services, the impacts by specialty are generally less than the impacts by type of service.

Brain drain: Do economic conditions "push" doctors out of developing countries?

Health worker migration is an issue of first order concern in global health policy circles and continues to be the subject of much policy debate. In this paper, we contribute to the discussion by studying the impact of economic conditions on the migration of physicians from developing countries. To our knowledge, this is one of the first papers to do so. A major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a new panel dataset on migration to the US and the UK from 31 sub-Saharan Africa countries. The data spans the period 1975-2004. Using this data, we estimate the impact of changes in economic conditions on physician migration. In our preferred specification that allows for country-specific time trends, we find that a temporary one percentage point decline in GDP per capita increases physician migration in the next period by approximately. 3 percent. In our IV models a one percentage point decline in GDP per capita increases physician migration in the next period by between 3.4 and 3.6 percent. Overall, our results suggest a significant effect of developing country economic conditions on physician migration.

AIDS treatment and mental health: evidence from Uganda.

Increased access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in developing countries over the last decade is believed to have contributed to reductions in HIV transmission and improvements in life expectancy. While numerous studies document the effects of ART on physical health and functioning, comparatively less attention has been paid to the effects of ART on mental health outcomes. In this paper we study the impact of ART on depression in a cohort of patients in Uganda entering HIV care. We find that 12 months after beginning ART, the prevalence of major and minor depression in the treatment group had fallen by approximately 15 and 27 percentage points respectively relative to a comparison group of patients in HIV care but not receiving ART. We also find some evidence that ART helps to close the well-known gender gap in depression between men and women.

The price sensitivity of Medicare beneficiaries: a regression discontinuity approach.

We use 4 years of data from the retiree health benefits program of the University of Michigan to estimate the effect of price on the health plan choices of Medicare beneficiaries. During the period of our analysis, changes in the University's premium contribution rules led to substantial price changes. A key feature of this 'natural experiment' is that individuals who had retired before a certain date were exempted from having to pay any premium contributions. This 'grandfathering' creates quasi-experimental variation that is ideal for estimating the effect of price. Using regression discontinuity methods, we compare the plan choices of individuals who retired just after the grandfathering cutoff date and were therefore exposed to significant price changes to the choices of a 'control group' of individuals who retired just before that date and therefore did not experience the price changes. The results indicate a statistically significant effect of price, with a $10 increase in monthly premium contributions leading to a 2 to 3 percentage point decrease in a plan's market share.

What is the price of prevention? New evidence from a field experiment.

How does increasing access to treatment affect the demand for preventive testing? In this paper we present results from a field experiment in Nigeria in which we offered cervical cancer screening to women at randomly chosen prices. To test our hypothesis, we also offered women a lottery where the payoff was a subsidy towards the cost of cervical cancer treatment (conditional upon a diagnosis of cervical cancer). We find that women randomly selected to receive the conditional cancer treatment subsidy were about 4 percentage points more likely to take up screening than those in the control group. We also show that reducing the price of screening by 10 cents increased take-up by about 1 percentage point. These results offer compelling evidence that the optimal set of subsidies to increase take-up of preventive testing in developing countries, must include subsidies towards treatment costs (in addition to price subsidies).

Evaluating the Impact of Prevention and Early Intervention Activities on the Mental Health of California's Population.

In 2004, California voters passed the Mental Health Services Act, which was intended to transform California's community mental health system from a crisis-driven system to one that included a focus on prevention and wellness. The vision was that prevention and early intervention (PEI) services comprised the first step in a continuum of services designed to identify early symptoms and prevent mental illness from becoming severe and disabling. Twenty percent of the act's funding was dedicated to PEI services. The act identified seven negative outcomes that PEI programs were intended to reduce: suicide, mental health-related incarcerations, school failure, unemployment, prolonged suffering, homelessness, and removal of children from the home. The Mental Health Services Oversight and Accountability Commission (MHSOAC) coordinated with the California Mental Health Services Authority (CalMHSA), an independent administrative and fiscal intergovernmental agency, to seek development of a statewide framework for evaluating and monitoring the short- and long-term impact of PEI funding on the population. CalMHSA selected the RAND Corporation to develop a framework for the statewide evaluation. This article describes the approach, the data sources, and the frameworks developed: an overall approach framework and outcome-specific frameworks.

The Evolving Role of Emergency Departments in the United States.

The research described in this article was performed to develop a more complete picture of how hospital emergency departments (EDs) contribute to the U.S. health care system, which is currently evolving in response to economic, clinical, and political pressures. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, it explores the evolving role that EDs and the personnel who staff them play in evaluating and managing complex and high-acuity patients, serving as the key decisionmaker for roughly half of all inpatient hospital admissions, and serving as "the safety net of the safety net" for patients who cannot get care elsewhere. The report also examines the role that EDs may soon play in either contributing to or helping to control the rising costs of health care.

CMS Innovation Center Health Care Innovation Awards: Evaluation Plan.

The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation within the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has funded 108 Health Care Innovation Awards, funded through the Affordable Care Act, for applicants who proposed compelling new models of service delivery or payment improvements that promise to deliver better health, better health care, and lower costs through improved quality of care for Medicare, Medicaid, and Children's Health Insurance Program enrollees. CMS is also interested in learning how new models would affect subpopulations of beneficiaries (e.g., those eligible for Medicare and Medicaid and complex patients) who have unique characteristics or health care needs that could be related to poor outcomes. In addition, the initiative seeks to identify new models of workforce development and deployment, as well as models that can be rapidly deployed and have the promise of sustainability. This article describes a strategy for evaluating the results. The goal for the evaluation design process is to create standardized approaches for answering key questions that can be customized to similar groups of awardees and that allow for rapid and comparable assessment across awardees. The evaluation plan envisions that data collection and analysis will be carried out on three levels: at the level of the individual awardee, at the level of the awardee grouping, and as a summary evaluation that includes all awardees. Key dimensions for the evaluation framework include implementation effectiveness, program effectiveness, workforce issues, impact on priority populations, and context. The ultimate goal is to identify strategies that can be employed widely to lower cost while improving care.