The use of future scenario thinking for child public health in a local authority.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic, cultural, technological, environment and ecological changes are rapidly transforming how children and young people (CYP) grow up, yet their impacts on CYP are difficult to predict. The traditional ways that Public Health practitioners work may not capture such complex and dynamic change. To address this, Lambeth Council used future scenario thinking. METHODS: A literature review looked at political, socioeconomic and other 'transitions' in the borough. Interviews, focus groups and workshops were held with CYP, parents, carers, local statutory and non-statutory stakeholders about the future for Lambeth CYP in the decade ahead. Themes were analysed to identify which had the potential for the biggest impact or the most uncertainty. RESULTS: The main transitions were described, 100 stakeholders interviewed, and five 'drivers' of the future were identified: protracted austerity, technological explosion, demographic shift, 'democratic shake-up' and planetary health. From all these data, four future scenarios were developed: 'communities care for themselves', 'collaborating to care for all', 'nobody cares' and 'who cares?' CONCLUSIONS: New insights were gained about promoting more responsibility for, and active participation of CYP. This led to Lambeth's CYP Plan and the 'Made in Lambeth' campaign aiming to enlist the community and business in creating a child-friendly borough.

Protocol for a two-arm feasibility RCT to support postnatal maternal weight management and positive lifestyle behaviour in women from an ethnically diverse inner city population: the SWAN feasibility trial.

INTRODUCTION: A high BMI during and after pregnancy is linked to poor pregnancy outcomes and contributes to long-term maternal obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Evidence of feasible, effective postnatal interventions is lacking. This randomised controlled trial will assess the feasibility of conducting a future definitive trial to determine effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lifestyle information and access to Slimming World® (Alfreton, UK) groups for 12 weeks commencing from 8 to 16 weeks postnatally, in relation to supporting longer-term postnatal weight management in women in an ethnically diverse inner city population. METHODS/ANALYSIS: Women will be recruited from one maternity unit in London. To be eligible, women will be overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2) or obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) as identified at their first antenatal contact, or have a normal BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m2) at booking but gain excessive gestational weight as assessed at 36 weeks gestation. Women will be aged 18 and over, can speak and read English, expecting a single baby, and will not have accessed weight management groups in this pregnancy. Women will be randomly allocated to standard care plus lifestyle information and access to Slimming World® (Alfreton, UK) groups or standard care only. A sample of 130 women is required.Feasibility trial objectives reflect those considered most important inform a decision about undertaking a definitive future trial. These include estimation of impact of lifestyle information and postnatal access to Slimming World® (Alfreton, UK) on maternal weight change between antenatal booking weight and weight at 12 months postbirth, recruitment rate and time to recruitment, retention rate, influence of lifestyle information and Slimming World® (Alfreton, UK) groups on weight management, diet, physical activity, breastfeeding, smoking cessation, alcohol intake, physical and mental health, infant health, and health-related quality of life 6 and 12 months postnatally. An embedded process evaluation will assess acceptability of study processes and procedures to women. ETHICS/DISSEMINATION: London-Camberwell St Giles Research Ethics Committee, reference: 16/LO/1422. Outcomes will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: ISRCTN 39186148. Protocol version number: v7, 13 August 17. Trial sponsor: King's College London.