RESUMO
One hundred 14-yr-old children were observed over 1 yr to find out if caries incidence and caries progression could be predicted in a low prevalence child population by means of well-known caries related factors. The mean caries incidence was low (0.45, SD 0.70) but, on the other hand, 32% of the children developed at least one new lesion during the test period. In only eight out of 35 children progressing lesions were demonstrated. Independent variables at baseline examination were caries prevalence, sucrose intake, fluoride exposure, oral hygiene, saliva secretion rate, and salivary concentrations of mutans streptococci and lactobacilli. A weak but statistically significant correlation was demonstrated between caries incidence and caries prevalence. No other significant correlations were shown. It was concluded that caries activity could not be predicted in this population. Low disease prevalence was a major reason for the weak correlations.