Remembrance of things past: modelling the relationship between species' abundances in living communities and death assemblages.

Accumulations of dead skeletal material are a valuable archive of past ecological conditions. However, such assemblages are not equivalent to living communities because they mix the remains of multiple generations and are altered by post-mortem processes. The abundance of a species in a death assemblage can be quantitatively modelled by successively integrating the product of an influx time series and a post-mortem loss function (a decay function with a constant half-life). In such a model, temporal mixing increases expected absolute dead abundance relative to average influx as a linear function of half-life and increases variation in absolute dead abundance values as a square-root function of half-life. Because typical abundance distributions of ecological communities are logarithmically distributed, species' differences in preservational half-life would have to be very large to substantially alter species' abundance ranks (i.e. make rare species common or vice-versa). In addition, expected dead abundances increase at a faster rate than their range of variation with increased time averaging, predicting greater consistency in the relative abundance structure of death assemblages than their parent living community.

Persistence of high diversity in non-equilibrium ecological communities: implications for modern and fossil ecosystems.

Explaining the origin and maintenance of biodiversity is critical for understanding the potential consequences of present-day environmental change on ecological communities, as well as the evolutionary history of ecosystems in the Earth's past. Much effort in theoretical ecology has focused on identifying mechanisms that promote stable coexistence of species at equilibrium. However, in a consumer-resource model of competition along an environmental gradient, high-diversity assemblages have the potential to persist in non-equilibrium states for millions of generations with very little species loss. Species' populations in such competitively accommodated communities show slow drift; if disrupted, they rapidly reorganize into alternative persistent states. Fossil examples of prolonged ecological stability lasting 1-5 Myr punctuated by rapid reorganization (e.g. brachiopods from the Permian Reef of west Texas) suggest that some palaeocommunities represent a record of periodically disrupted transient states rather than stable equilibria. The similarity between the theoretical results reported here and palaeontological data suggests that the maintenance of high-diversity communities, both in the past and present, may reflect long-duration, non-equilibrium transient dynamics. If so, this has implications for the response of such communities to present-day environmental change, as well as for the evolution of lineages in such systems.

Phanerozoic trends in the global diversity of marine invertebrates.

It has previously been thought that there was a steep Cretaceous and Cenozoic radiation of marine invertebrates. This pattern can be replicated with a new data set of fossil occurrences representing 3.5 million specimens, but only when older analytical protocols are used. Moreover, analyses that employ sampling standardization and more robust counting methods show a modest rise in diversity with no clear trend after the mid-Cretaceous. Globally, locally, and at both high and low latitudes, diversity was less than twice as high in the Neogene as in the mid-Paleozoic. The ratio of global to local richness has changed little, and a latitudinal diversity gradient was present in the early Paleozoic.

Dynamic response of Permian brachiopod communities to long-term environmental change.

The fossil record preserves numerous natural experiments that can shed light on the response of ecological communities to environmental change. However, directly observing the community dynamics of extinct organisms is not possible. As an alternative, neutral ecological models suggest that species abundance distributions reflect dynamical processes like migration, competition, recruitment, and extinction. Live-dead comparisons suggest that such distributions can be faithfully preserved in the rock record. Here we use a maximum-likelihood approach to show that brachiopod (lamp shell) abundance distributions from four temporally distinct ecological landscapes from the Glass Mountains, Texas (of the Permian period), exhibit significant differences. Further, all four are better fitted by zero-sum multinomial distributions, characteristic of Hubbell's neutral model, than by log-normal distributions, as predicted by the traditional ecological null hypothesis. Using the neutral model as a guide, we suggest that sea level fluctuations spanning about 10 Myr altered the degrees of isolation and exchange among local communities within these ecological landscapes. Neither these long-term environmental changes nor higher-frequency sea level fluctuations resulted in wholesale extinction or major innovation within evolutionary lineages.