A suite of agronomic factors can offset the effects of climate variability on rainfed maize production in Kenya.

Achieving food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a multidimensional challenge. SSA reliance on food imports is expected to grow in the coming decades to meet the population's demand, projected to double to over 2 billion people by 2050. In addition, climate change is already affecting food production and supply chains across the region. Addressing these multiple food security challenges will necessitate rapid enhancements in agricultural productivity, which is influenced by a host of demographic, agronomic, and climatic factors. We use statistical approaches to examine rainfed maize in Kenya, where maize cultivation and consumption are widespread and central to livelihoods and national food security. We find that improving a suite of agronomic factors, such as applying fertilizer, planting certified seeds, and extension services, will have a greater effect on rainfed maize productivity than demographics and can offset the effects of climate change. These findings could also offer insights into similar challenges for other crops in Kenya and other SSA countries.

The geography of agricultural input markets in rural Tanzania.

The expansion of agro-dealers into remote areas can be seen as conducive to more smallholders adopting new technologies and inputs, to include improved seed and fertilizer. However, lower travel costs may be offset by agro-dealer decisions on stocking and pricing, reflecting both travel time from wholesale markets as well as the level of competition in localized areas. This paper investigates the geographical distribution of agro-dealers and related patterns of local market competition on the availability and prices of maize seed and fertilizer. We use a unique census of agro-dealers in eight districts of Tanzania (n = 299) which maps distribution points for agricultural inputs in these areas. Results suggested that despite a high number of agro-dealers, almost 30% of farmers lived more than an hour travel time from at least one agro-dealer. Instead of wide geographical coverage, agro-dealers tended to be found in clusters, with strong variation in cluster sizes between different districts. Overall, more remote agro-dealers faced less competition, resulting in fewer stocked product choices and charging higher prices to customers, even after controlling for travel time from district headquarters. Remote farmers are disadvantaged in their uptake of new technologies and critical production inputs due to lack of competition among agro-dealers. Our results suggest that highly aggregated and/or simplified measures of market access fail to reflect important heterogeneity in the market access conditions faced by farmers; a better understanding of distribution networks and competition is needed.