Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing.

El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009-2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic regimes of SOI and SST joint recurrence of annual components. State space geometry of El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics were characterized and compared with other El Niños. Timescales of SOI and SST components ranged from sub-annual to multidecadal. The trajectories of SOI and SST components and the joint recurrence of annual components were dissipative toward chaotic attractors. Periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic regimes were present in the recurrence of trajectories, but chaos-chaos transitions dominated. Influenza pandemics occurred during chaotic regimes of significantly low transitivity dimension (p < 0.0001). El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics had distinct state space geometry (p < 0.0001). Chaotic dynamics explains the aperiodic timing, and varying duration and strength of El Niños. Coupling of all influenza pandemics of the past 140 years to chaotic regimes of low transitivity indicate that ENSO dynamics drives influenza pandemic dynamics. Forecasts models from ENSO dynamics should compliment surveillance for novel influenza viruses.

Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños.

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually during the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, but timing of peaks and severity vary seasonally. Low humidity, which enhances survival and transmission of influenza virus, is the major risk factor. Both El Niño and La Niña phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which determine inter-annual variation of precipitation, are putative risk factors. This study was done to determine if seasonality, timing of peak, and severity of influenza epidemics are coupled to phases of ENSO. Monthly time series of positive specimens for influenza viruses and of multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index from January 2000 to August 2015 were analyzed. Seasonality, wavelet spectra, and cross-wavelet spectra analyses were performed. Of 31 countries in the dataset, 21 were in the northern hemisphere and 10 in the southern hemisphere. The highest number of influenza cases occurred in January in the northern hemisphere, but in July in the southern hemisphere, p < 0.0001. Seasonal influenza epidemic was coupled to El Niño, while low occurrence was coupled to La Niña. The moderate La Niña of 2010-2011 was followed by weak seasonal influenza epidemic. The influenza pandemic of 2009-2010 followed the moderate El Niño of 2009-2010, which had three peaks. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 6-48 months for ENSO, 6-24 months for influenza in the northern hemisphere, and 6-12 months for influenza in the southern hemisphere. Cross spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities at 6-36 months for ENSO and influenza in both hemispheres, p < 0.0001. Phase plots showed that influenza time series lagged ENSO in both hemispheres. Severity of seasonal influenza increases during El Niño, but decreases during La Niña. Coupling of seasonality, timing, and severity of influenza epidemics to the strength and waveform of ENSO indicate that forecast models of El Niño should be integrated into surveillance programs for influenza epidemics.

Climate Regimes, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and Meningococcal Meningitis Epidemics.

Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem that kills thousands annually in Africa, Europe, North, and South America. Occurrence is, however, highest during the dry seasons in Sahel Africa. Interannual changes in precipitation correlate with interannual changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while interdecadal changes in precipitation correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The objective of the study was to determine if there is spectral coherence of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa with interannual and interdecadal changes of PDO and ENSO. Time series were fitted to occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa, to indices of precipitation anomalies in the Sahel, and to indices of ENSO and PDO anomalies. Morlet wavelet was used to transform the time series to frequency-time domain. Wavelet spectra and coherence analyses were performed. Occurrence of meningococcal meningitis showed seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes. The magnitude of occurrence was higher during warm climate regime, and strong El Niños. Spectra coherence of interannual and interdecadal changes of ENSO and PDO with occurrence of meningococcal meningitis in Sahel, Central, and East Africa were significant at p < 0.0001. Precipitation in Sahel was low during warm climate regimes. Spectra coherence of changes in precipitation in Sahel with ENSO was significant at p < 0.0001. ENSO and PDO are determinants of the seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in occurrence of meningococcal meningitis. Public health management of epidemics of meningococcal meningitis should include forecast models of changes in ENSO to predict periods of low precipitation, which initiate occurrence.

Geospatial association of endemicity of ataxic polyneuropathy and highly cyanogenic cassava cultivars.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cyanide from cassava foods is present in communities where ataxic polyneuropathy is endemic. Ataxic polyneuropathy is endemic in coastal parts of southwest and southeast Nigeria, and coastal Newala, south India, but it has been reported in epidemic or endemic forms from Africa, Asia, or Caribbean. This study was done to determine if cyanogenicity of cassava cultivars is higher in lowland than highland areas, and if areas of endemicity of ataxic polyneuropathy colocalize with areas of highest cyanogenicity of cassava. METHODS: Roots of cassava cultivars were collected from 150 farmers in 32 of 37 administrative areas in Nigeria. Global positioning system was used to determine the location of the roots. Roots were assayed for concentrations of cyanogens. Thin Plate Spline regression was used to produce the contour map of cyanogenicity of the study area. Contour maps of altitude of the endemic areas were produced. Relationship of cyanogenicity of cassava cultivars and altitude, and of locations of areas of high cyanogenicity and areas of endemicity were determined. RESULTS: Geometrical mean (95% CI) cyanogen concentration was 182 (142-233) mg HCN eq/kg dry wt for cassava cultivars in areas ≤ 25 m above sea level, but 54 (43-66) mg HCN eq/kg dry wt for areas > 375 m. Non-spatial linear regression of altitude on logarithm transformed concentrations of cyanogens showed highly significant association, (p < 0.0001). Contour map of concentrations of cyanogens in cassava cultivars in Nigeria showed four areas with average concentrations of cassava cyanogens > 250 mg HCN eq/kg dry wt, and one area of moderately high cyanogen concentration > 150 mg HCN eq/kg dry wt. The endemic areas colocalized with areas of highest cassava cyanogenicity in lowland areas close to the Atlantic Ocean. CONCLUSION: This study shows strong geospatial association of areas of endemicity of ataxic polyneuropathy and areas of highest cyanogenicity of cassava cultivars. Finding of higher cyanogenicity of cassava in lowland than highland areas indicate strong influence of altitude on expression of cyanogens in cassava cultivars.