District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Needs and views on eye health and women's empowerment and theory of change map: implication on the development of a women-targeted eyecare programme for older Zanzibari craftswomen.

OBJECTIVES: To assess needs and views regarding eye health and empowerment from craftswomen's perspectives to develop a theory of change (ToC) for a women-targeted eyecare programme. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Eighteen stakeholders participated in a 2-day consultation workshop in Zanzibar. The composition was (1) 15 women and 3 men; (2) Unguja (n=8), Pemba (n=6) and Tanzania mainland (n=4) and (3) craftswomen (n=14) and governmental stakeholders (n=4). Thematic analysis determined the craftswomen's needs and views regarding eye health and empowerment and subsequently inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impact to develop the programme's initial ToC. In refining the initial ToC, we used insights from a qualitative study suggesting that improved near vision is perceived by craftswomen as a potential source of empowerment across economic, psychological, social, political and educational dimensions. RESULTS: The eye conditions experienced by the craftswomen were eye irritation caused by foreign bodies, the need for near spectacles and other eye morbidities. They were advised by the cooperatives to visit eye health centres for treatment. The main barriers to accessing services were inaccessibility and unaffordability of eye services and a lack of eye health knowledge and practices. Nineteen subthemes on women empowerment (economic n=4, social n=4, psychological n=6, education n=2 and political n=3) were obtained. We created a ToC on how investing in improving craftswomen near vision could achieve empowerment. CONCLUSION: The participants provided insights into their needs and how they would like the eyecare programme to be implemented and how they see they could be empowered in the process.

Contextual factors affecting integration of eye health into school health programme in Zanzibar: a qualitative health system research.

BACKGROUND: Short-term school eye health programmes supported by external funders have sustainability issues. This study aimed to understand the contextual factors affecting integrating eye health into the school health programme. METHODS: We elicited responses from 83 respondents, purposefully selected from the Ministry of Health (n = 7), Ministry of Education and Vocational Training (n = 7), hospitals/eye centres (n = 5), master trainers (4) and schools (n = 60) who participated in in-depth interviews. Their responses were analysed and grouped into contextual factors according to the WHO Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research: stakeholders/political, institutional, physical, cultural, delivery system and others. Themes were then generated, and quotations were presented to illustrate the findings. RESULTS: The six contextual factors affecting the integration of eye health into the school eye health programme were i) Stakeholders/political (Good ministry coordination, defined departmental roles and resource mobilisation from multiple stakeholders; Good stakeholder synergies and address current gaps); ii) Institutional (Institutional coordination and adequate clinic space; Securing human and financial resources; Strategic advocacy for institutional resources); iii) Physical (Long travel distance to service points); vi) Cultural (low eye health awareness among parents, teachers and children); iv) Delivery system (Practical approach to increase screening coverage using teachers as screeners; Balance teachers' workload, increase screening sensitivity and follow up and; v) Others (Comprehensive training material and effective training delivery; Improved curriculum, teacher selection and supervision and incentives). CONCLUSION: Integrated school eye health delivery is generally well-received by stakeholders in Zanzibar, with the caveat that investment is required to address the six contextual factors identified in the study.

Subjective Wellbeing, Work Performance and Lived Experience of Zanzibari Women Entrepreneurs with Uncorrected Functional Presbyopia: A Pre-Post Mixed-Methods Study.

PURPOSE: Uncorrected presbyopia has been shown to reduce Zanzibari women's quality of life. In this mixed-methods study, we examined the subjective wellbeing and self-reported work performance among older women entrepreneurs with functional presbyopia before and shortly after correction, and how poor vision at close distance affected their daily lives. METHODS: Women entrepreneurs underwent eye examination to identify those with uncorrected functional presbyopia. Their subjective wellbeing and work performance were both measured in Cantril's ladder. Ready-made glasses were then provided and 30 minutes to an hour later, their subjective wellbeing and work performance was remeasured. Twenty women entrepreneurs were interviewed to understand their lived experience with uncorrected presbyopia. RESULTS: Two-hundred-seventeen women entrepreneurs were included in the survey (mean age 51.6 years, SD 8.64). Women entrepreneurs had a mean subjective wellbeing score of 3.32 (SD 1.10) pre-correction and 5.99 (SD 1.13) post-correction (p < .001), and a mean self-rated current work performance score of 4.62 (SD 1.36) before correction and 5.47 (SD 1.35) post-correction (p < .001). One-hundred-and-ninety (87.6%) and 121 women entrepreneurs (55.8%) rated their current subjective wellbeing and work performance scores < 5, respectively. Around 1/4 of women entrepreneurs reported having severe difficulties with near tasks. CONCLUSION: Poor vision at a close distance caused by uncorrected functional presbyopia negatively affected economic, physical and psychosocial aspects of women entrepreneurs' lives. Subjective wellbeing and self-reported work productivity scores improved significantly shortly after presbyopia was corrected. More research with longer follow-up is needed to understand the full benefits of correcting presbyopia.

Refractive error, eye care needs and attitude towards spectacle wearing among older Zanzibari craftswomen and implications for developing women-targeted services: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Aged Zanzibari women are in a disadvantaged position, having high demand for near-vision spectacles. Currently, there is no information on the eye health status of craftswomen, which makes planning a women-targeted project to deliver eye health services to older craftswomen in Zanzibar difficult. We assessed the prevalence of vision impairment, refractive error, presbyopia, effective spectacle coverage (distance and near) and attitude towards spectacle wearing among older Zanzibari craftswomen. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This was a cross-sectional study. Unaided and presenting distance and near vision of craftswomen 35 years and older were assessed at the women's co-operatives. We determined the number of those with distance vision poorer than 6/12 and their causes (distance-vision impairment), the number of those with near vision poorer than N8 at 40 cm (presbyopia) and the number of those whose distance and/or near-vision needs were met adequately with their habitual spectacles (effective distance and near spectacle coverages). A piloted and validated questionnaire (15 statements) was used to determine their attitude towards spectacle wearing. RESULTS: In all, 263 craftswomen participated in the survey (mean age 52.1 years±9.4 years). The prevalence of distance vision impairment among the craftswomen was 29.7% (95% CI 24.2% to 35.6%), the primary cause being uncorrected refractive error (n=51, 65.4%), and none were corrected. The prevalence of presbyopia was 86.6% (95% CI 81.5% to 90.7%, n=231) and the effective near spectacle coverage was 0.99%. The craftswomen showed a positive attitude towards spectacle wearing (strongly agree or agree) based on 12 out of 15 statements. CONCLUSION: The high burden of vision impairment, uncorrected distance refractive error and presbyopia, and a positive attitude towards spectacle wearing among older craftswomen in Zanzibar indicated the need for women-targeted eye health programmes in low-resource settings.

Cytosolic EpCAM cooperates with H-Ras to regulate epithelial to mesenchymal transition through ZEB1.

Next generation sequencing of human cancer mutations has identified novel therapeutic targets. Activating Ras oncogene mutations play a central role in oncogenesis, and Ras-driven tumorigenesis upregulates an array of genes and signaling cascades that can transform normal cells into tumor cells. In this study, we investigated the role of altered localization of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) in Ras-expressing cells. Analysis of microarray data demonstrated that Ras expression induced EpCAM expression in normal breast epithelial cells. Fluorescent and confocal microscopy showed that H-Ras mediated transformation also promoted epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) together with EpCAM. To consistently localize EpCAM in the cytosol, we generated a cancer-associated EpCAM mutant (EpCAM-L240A) that is retained in the cytosol compartment. Normal MCF-10A cells were transduced with H-Ras together with EpCAM wild-type (WT) or EpCAM-L240A. WT-EpCAM marginally effected invasion, proliferation, and soft agar growth. EpCAM-L240A, however, markedly altered cells and transformed to mesenchymal phenotype. Ras-EpCAM-L240A expression also promoted expression of EMT factors FRA1, ZEB1 with inflammatory cytokines IL-6, IL-8, and IL1. This altered morphology was reversed using MEK-specific inhibitors and to some extent JNK inhibition. Furthermore, these transformed cells were sensitized to apoptosis using paclitaxel and quercetin, but not other therapies. For the first time, we have demonstrated that EpCAM mutations can cooperate with H-Ras and promote EMT. Collectively, our results highlight future therapeutic opportunities in EpCAM and Ras mutated cancers.

How does a pair of near-vision spectacle correction empower older Zanzibari craftswomen?: A qualitative study on perception.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that correcting presbyopia among women could increase short-term income and quality of life. However, it is unclear whether these short-term outcomes translate to long-term empowerment. This is partly due to women's empowerment being under-studied in the eye health field. Hence, we attempted to understand Zanzibari craftswomen's perception of how near-vision spectacle correction could empower them. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 craftswomen with presbyopia (7 to 21 April 2022), identified from Zanzibari cooperatives using quota and heterogeneity sampling. We included a sample of tailors, beaders/weavers, and potters who were 40 years and older. Directed content analysis was performed on interview transcripts. RESULTS: Two themes and seven sub-themes emerged from the data. Craftswomen perceived that at the personal level, near-vision spectacle correction could improve their economic empowerment (better income and savings and buying things for themselves), psychological empowerment (more self-confidence and decision-making), political empowerment (taking up leadership roles), and educational empowerment (acquiring new skills). At a relational level, they perceived that near-vision spectacle correction could bring about economic empowerment (ability to buy things for the family), social empowerment (ability to participate in social activities), and educational empowerment (ability to educate other women). CONCLUSION: Older craftswomen perceived that correcting near vision could empower them at personal and relational levels that encompass economic, psychological, social, political and educational empowerment. The findings laid the foundation for future research into eye health and women's empowerment.

Does an integrated school eye health delivery model perform better than a vertical model in a real-world setting? A non-randomised interventional comparative implementation study in Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Few studies on school eye health programmes have shown they were cost-effective. We compared the performance (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (RE-AIM)) between an integrated model (IM) and a vertical model (VM) of school eye health delivery in Zanzibar. METHODS: The set of RE-AIM performance indicators of the IM (n=9) and VM (n=10) cohorts was compared. The VM implemented only the eye health interventions, while the IM had the eye health interventions conducted within the school feeding programme. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 stakeholders to understand the challenges and outcomes experienced when implementing both models. RESULTS: The IM achieved higher screening coverage, voluntary follow-up rate, screening validity and spectacle compliance than VM. This was due to effective coordination between implementers, motivated teachers to prevent vision problems and related negative impacts in children, and activities implemented timeously post-training. Both models recorded low wearing compliance. All schools in the IM cohort completed screening activities, but two schools in the VM cohort did not. Both models ceased activities after the funding stopped. Local stakeholders emphasised that evidence from this study can be used to advocate for more resources for children's eye health. CONCLUSIONS: The IM cohort achieved better reach, effectiveness, adoption rate and implementation performance than the VM cohort. The poor maintenance performance indicators in both arms postfunding call for improvement to the implementation strategy to ensure the sustainability of school eye health. In the optics of scaling up, an integrated approach is recommended.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

Is an integrated model of school eye health delivery more cost-effective than a vertical model? An implementation research in Zanzibar.

OBJECTIVE: To review and compare the cost-effectiveness of the integrated model (IM) and vertical model (VM) of school eye health programme in Zanzibar. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This 6-month implementation research was conducted in four districts in Zanzibar. Nine and ten schools were recruited into the IM and VM, respectively. In the VM, teachers conducted eye health screening and education only while these eye health components were added to the existing school feeding programme (IM). The number of children aged 6-13 years old screened and identified was collected monthly. A review of project account records was conducted with 19 key informants. The actual costs were calculated for each cost categories, and costs per child screened and cost per child identified were compared between the two models. RESULTS: Screening coverage was 96% and 90% in the IM and VM with 297 children (69.5%) from the IM and 130 children (30.5%) from VM failed eye health screening. The 6-month eye health screening cost for VM and IM was US$6 728 and US$7 355. The cost per child screened for IM and VM was US$1.23 and US$1.31, and the cost per child identified was US$24.76 and US$51.75, respectively. CONCLUSION: Both models achieved high coverage of eye health screening with the IM being a more cost-effective school eye health delivery screening compared with VM with great opportunities for cost savings.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Baseline Trachoma Surveys in Kaskazini A and Micheweni Districts of Zanzibar: Results of Two Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project.

PURPOSE: Based on health care records and trachoma rapid assessments, trachoma was suspected to be endemic in Kaskazini A and Micheweni districts of Zanzibar. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in each of those districts. METHODS: The survey was undertaken in Kaskazini A and Micheweni districts on Unguja and Pemba Islands, respectively. A multi-stage cluster random sampling design was applied, whereby 25 census enumeration areas (clusters) and 30 households per cluster were included. Consenting eligible participants (children aged 1-9 years and people aged 15 years and older) were examined for trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. RESULTS: A total of 1673 households were surveyed and 6407 participants (98.0% of those enumerated) were examined for trachoma. Examinees included a total of 2825 children aged 1-9 years and 3582 people aged 15 years and older. TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was 2.7% (95% confidence interval, CI, 2.7-4.1%) in Kazkazini A and 11.4% (95% CI 6.6-16.5%) in Micheweni. Among people aged 15 years and older, TT prevalence was 0.01% (95% CI 0.00-0.04%) in Kazkazini A and 0.21% (95% CI 0.08-0.39%) in Micheweni. CONCLUSION: Trachoma is a public health problem in Micheweni district, where implementation of all four components of the SAFE strategy (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement), including mass drug administration with azithromycin, is required. These findings will facilitate planning for trachoma elimination.

Evaluating the effectiveness of opportunistic eye screening model for people with diabetes attending diabetes clinic at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and its related microvascular complications like Diabetic retinopathy are showing an alarming rise in developing countries like Zanzibar. Objective of the present study is to evaluate the impact of integrating eye screening for all subjects attending the diabetes clinic at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital in Zanzibar and to estimate the prevalence of visual impairment and diabetic retinopathy among the subjects. METHODS: This is a cross sectional study involving 356 randomly selected patients who had attended the diabetes clinic between July and August 2012. All subjects underwent comprehensive eye examination including fundus evaluation after dilatation by a cataract surgeon and an ophthalmologist, independently. Data was collected using the designated questionnaire and analysed using the SPSS software. Blindness and visual impairment was defined as presenting VA <3/60 and <6/18 to 6/60 in the better eye respectively and DR was graded using the International classification of Diabetic Retinopathy severity grading scale. RESULTS: A total of 356/967 subjects were recruited in a duration of 2 months; 176 (49.4%) were male and the mean age was 52.21 (SD 15.3). Targeted eye screening of diabetics showed that 231/356 (65%) of the subjects had eye problems, including potentially blinding conditions that required immediate intervention in contrast to the existing self reported referral where only 10% of an average of 200 diabetics underwent eye checkup in a year. The prevalence of visual impairment was 20.2%; 95% CI: 16.4-24.7 and blindness in 9.3%; 95% CI: 6.7 -12.7. The prevalence of DR was 28.3% and sight-threatening DR was reported in 9%. Among the DR cases, 30% had sight threatening DR including 28% macular edema, 2% severe NPDR and PDR. Multivariate analysis showed a higher risk for any DR in older subjects >50 years (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.14 - 4.25) and in females (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.07 - 3.44). CONCLUSION: Opportunistic DR screening model achieved higher yield of identification of visual impairment and DR compared to the yield of 10% of existing self reported Diabetic eye screening model at Zanzibar. Integration of eye screening at diabetes clinics helps in early identification and provision of appropriate treatment for reducing blindness due to diabetes.

Presbyopic spectacle coverage, willingness to pay for near correction, and the impact of correcting uncorrected presbyopia in adults in Zanzibar, East Africa.

PURPOSE: To assess presbyopic spectacle coverage, willingness to pay, and the impact of correcting uncorrected presbyopia in individuals 40 years of age and older in Zanzibar and whether assessment of presbyopia can be incorporated into Rapid Assessment of Blindness (RAAB) surveys. METHODS: A cross-sectional, population-based survey of presbyopia was incorporated into a RAAB survey. The sample size of 400 included individuals older than 50 years (from RAAB survey) and those 40 to 50 years old (from the same household) who had a corrected visual acuity (VA) of at least 6/18 in either eye. An Ophthalmic Clinical Officer (OCO) administered visual function (VF) and quality of life (QOL) questionnaires followed by clinical assessment by an optometrist. Participants requiring a simple near addition were dispensed free readymade spectacles. The same team traced participants 6 months later and readministered the questionnaires. Those requiring new spectacles had their near VA measured and were given spectacles. RESULTS: Three hundred eighty-one participants were examined. The prevalence of presbyopia was 89.2% (340/381) and spectacle coverage was only 17.6%. Barriers to accessing services included spectacles not being a priority and lack of money. At follow-up, 175 (93.6%) of 187 participants given spectacles still had them. Mean satisfaction was high at 89.5%. The mean amount participants were willing to pay for spectacles had increased from 2.17 USD at baseline to 3.14 USD at follow-up. The impact of correcting presbyopia on VF produced an effect size of 2.90 and effect sizes ranging from 1.15 to 3.90 for mean QoL scores. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the value of correcting presbyopia from the community perspective and the necessity of providing affordable, quality, and accessible near spectacles at the primary health level.

Vigabatrin versus ACTH in the treatment of infantile spasms.

OBJECTIVE: To compare adrenocorticotropic hormone with vigabatrin as a single mono-therapy for infantile spasms. We studied hospitalization time, clinical response, whether complete or partial, time taken for improvement, and presence or absence of recurrence after stopping the medication. Together with improvement of electroencephalographic changes, and time taken for significant response, neurodevelopmental and cognitive responses in both groups. METHODS: Our study was conducted initially on 36 patients. They were divided randomly into 2 groups. The first group received adrenocorticotropic hormone and 2nd vigabatrin, as a single mono-therapy for infantile spasms. There was a male sex predominance of (1.25:1), with 20 males to 16 females affected. The mean age of onset was 5.2 months. Of the 36 patients, 26 patients (72.2%) were having typical hypsarrhythmia on electroencephalogram and 10 (27.8%) had burst suppression pattern. All 36 patients were having typical spasms. Four patients, all female, were excluded from the study, as their families lived outside Riyadh, and they were not regular on follow up. The remaining 32 patients continued the study. therefore, 16 patients were put in each group randomly. RESULTS: In the first group (adrenocorticotropic hormone group): initial improvement was achieved in 10 infants (62.5%), with median response time of 9 days, at a dose of 20 IU intramuscular daily, in the first 10 days. In the 2nd group vigabatrin: the initial improvement was achieved at 4 days in 9 infants (56.25%) at an average dose of 87mg/kg /day. The response was more appreciated in the secondary group infantile spasms with a known etiology. Side effects were noted in younger age group (5 months or below); 14 patients (78.5%) out of 16 suffered side effects from the adrenocorticotropic hormone group. Side effects in the vigabatrin group were much less, only 4 patients (25%) had some drowsiness, none had visual disturbances. CONCLUSION: Vigabatrin is an effective therapy for infantile spasms. It has shown to be as effective as adrenocorticotropic hormone, with less hospital dependency and milder side effects. As far as this study is concerned, differences in neurodevelopmental outcome are probably due to the underlying etiology. More research may be needed to further enhance the effects on both cognitive function and vision.