RESUMO
Marine population modeling, which underpins the scientific advice to support fisheries interventions, is an active research field with recent advancements to address modern challenges (e.g., climate change) and enduring issues (e.g., data limitations). Based on discussions during the 'Land of Plenty' session at the 2021 World Fisheries Congress, we synthesize current challenges, recent advances, and interdisciplinary developments in biological fisheries models (i.e., data-limited, stock assessment, spatial, ecosystem, and climate), management strategy evaluation, and the scientific advice that bridges the science-policy interface. Our review demonstrates that proliferation of interdisciplinary research teams and enhanced data collection protocols have enabled increased integration of spatiotemporal, ecosystem, and socioeconomic dimensions in many fisheries models. However, not all management systems have the resources to implement model-based advice, while protocols for sharing confidential data are lacking and impeding research advances. We recommend that management and modeling frameworks continue to adopt participatory co-management approaches that emphasize wider inclusion of local knowledge and stakeholder input to fill knowledge gaps and promote information sharing. Moreover, fisheries management, by which we mean the end-to-end process of data collection, scientific analysis, and implementation of evidence-informed management actions, must integrate improved communication, engagement, and capacity building, while incorporating feedback loops at each stage. Increasing application of management strategy evaluation is viewed as a critical unifying component, which will bridge fisheries modeling disciplines, aid management decision-making, and better incorporate the array of stakeholders, thereby leading to a more proactive, pragmatic, transparent, and inclusive management framework-ensuring better informed decisions in an uncertain world. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-022-09726-7.
RESUMO
Spatial and temporal heterogeneity interact to make the foraging rates of individuals more variable than expected from models assuming that spatial and temporal dimensions of habitat conditions operate independently. For example, trophic resource pulses produce temporal patches of prey superabundance, yet little is known about how spatial heterogeneity in habitat conditions mediates the ability of consumers to exploit these high-quality foraging opportunities. We studied how spatial variation in water temperature regulates the potential for juvenile coho salmon to exploit a seasonal pulsed subsidy of eggs produced by anadromous sockeye salmon. Streams within the Wood River watershed, southwestern Alaska, USA, ranged in mean summer temperature from 3.6 degrees to 14.5 degrees C. Growth of juvenile coho prior to the arrival of the seasonal egg subsidy was positively related to water temperature among streams. An in situ experiment combined with field samples of diets revealed a size threshold for egg consumption; only individuals longer than approximately 70 mm could consume eggs due to gape limitation of smaller individuals. A bioenergetics simulation demonstrated that water temperature regulated whether age-0 coho salmon could grow large enough to exceed the size threshold for egg consumption. Coho salmon that consumed eggs had energy rations that were five times higher than fish that did not consume eggs, resulting in a positive feedback of water temperature on their integrated seasonal growth. Across this landscape, heterogeneity in water temperature mediates individual- and population-level responses to seasonally available resource pulses. Our study illustrates that ecological mechanisms, such as size-based foraging asymmetries, can magnify the effects of climate change compared to predictions based on physiology alone.
