Seismological evidence for a multifault network at the subduction interface.

Subduction zones generate the largest earthquakes on Earth, yet their detailed structure, and its influence on seismic and aseismic slip, remains poorly understood. Geological studies of fossil subduction zones characterize the seismogenic interface as a 100 m-1 km thick zone1-3 in which deformation occurs mostly on metres-thick faults1,3-6. Conversely, seismological studies, with their larger spatial coverage and temporal resolution but lower spatial resolution, often image the seismogenic interface as a kilometres-wide band of seismicity7. Thus, how and when these metre-scale structures are active at the seismic-cycle timescale, and what influence they have on deformation is not known. Here we detect these metres-thick faults with seismicity and show their influence on afterslip propagation. Using a local three-dimensional velocity model and dense observations of more than 1,500 double-difference relocated earthquakes in Ecuador, we obtain an exceptionally detailed image of seismicity, showing that earthquakes occur sometimes on a single plane and sometimes on several metres-thick simultaneously active subparallel planes within the plate interface zone. This geometrical complexity affects afterslip propagation, demonstrating the influence of fault continuity and structure on slip at the seismogenic interface. Our findings can therefore help to create more realistic models of earthquake rupture, aseismic slip and earthquake hazard in subduction zones.

Megathrust shear force controls mountain height at convergent plate margins.

The shear force along convergent plate boundary faults (megathrusts) determines the height of mountain ranges that can be mechanically sustained1-4. However, whether the true height of mountain ranges corresponds to this tectonically supported elevation is debated4-7. In particular, climate-dependent erosional processes are often assumed to exert a first-order control on mountain height5-12, although this assumption has remained difficult to validate12. Here we constrain the shear force along active megathrusts using their rheological properties and then determine the tectonically supported elevation using a force balance model. We show that the height of mountain ranges around the globe matches this elevation, irrespective of climatic conditions and the rate of erosion. This finding indicates that mountain ranges are close to force equilibrium and that their height is primarily controlled by the megathrust shear force. We conclude that temporal variations in mountain height reflect long-term changes in the force balance but are not indicative of a direct climate control on mountain elevation.

Months-long thousand-kilometre-scale wobbling before great subduction earthquakes.

Megathrust earthquakes are responsible for some of the most devastating natural disasters1. To better understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake generation, subduction zones worldwide are continuously monitored with geophysical instrumentation. One key strategy is to install stations that record signals from Global Navigation Satellite Systems2,3 (GNSS), enabling us to track the non-steady surface motion of the subducting and overriding plates before, during and after the largest events4-6. Here we use a recently developed trajectory modelling approach7 that is designed to isolate secular tectonic motions from the daily GNSS time series to show that the 2010 Maule, Chile (moment magnitude 8.8) and 2011 Tohoku-oki, Japan (moment magnitude 9.0) earthquakes were preceded by reversals of 4-8 millimetres in surface displacement that lasted several months and spanned thousands of kilometres. Modelling of the surface displacement reversal that occurred before the Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests an initial slow slip followed by a sudden pulldown of the Philippine Sea slab so rapid that it caused a viscoelastic rebound across the whole of Japan. Therefore, to understand better when large earthquakes are imminent, we must consider not only the evolution of plate interface frictional processes but also the dynamic boundary conditions from deeper subduction processes, such as sudden densification of metastable slab.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.

2010 Maule earthquake slip correlates with pre-seismic locking of Andean subduction zone.

The magnitude-8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake of 27 February 2010 ruptured a segment of the Andean subduction zone megathrust that has been suspected to be of high seismic potential. It is the largest earthquake to rupture a mature seismic gap in a subduction zone that has been monitored with a dense space-geodetic network before the event. This provides an image of the pre-seismically locked state of the plate interface of unprecedentedly high resolution, allowing for an assessment of the spatial correlation of interseismic locking with coseismic slip. Pre-seismic locking might be used to anticipate future ruptures in many seismic gaps, given the fundamental assumption that locking and slip are similar. This hypothesis, however, could not be tested without the occurrence of the first gap-filling earthquake. Here we show evidence that the 2010 Maule earthquake slip distribution correlates closely with the patchwork of interseismic locking distribution as derived by inversion of global positioning system (GPS) observations during the previous decade. The earthquake nucleated in a region of high locking gradient and released most of the stresses accumulated in the area since the last major event in 1835. Two regions of high seismic slip (asperities) appeared to be nearly fully locked before the earthquake. Between these asperities, the rupture bridged a zone that was creeping interseismically with consistently low coseismic slip. The rupture stopped in areas that were highly locked before the earthquake but where pre-stress had been significantly reduced by overlapping twentieth-century earthquakes. Our work suggests that coseismic slip heterogeneity at the scale of single asperities should indicate the seismic potential of future great earthquakes, which thus might be anticipated by geodetic observations.