Assessment of Mortality and Smoking Rates Before and After Reduction in Community-wide Prevention Programs in Rural Maine.

Importance: It is unclear whether effective population-wide interventions that reduce risk factors and improve health result in sustained benefits to a community's health. If benefits do persist after a program is ended, interventions could be brief rather than maintained long term. Objective: To measure mortality and smoking rates in a rural community over decades before, during, and after prevention program reductions. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study compared smoking and mortality rates in a rural Maine county with other Maine counties over time by 5-year intervals. Multiple changes occurred between 2001 and 2015 in the physiological and behavioral risk factor reduction programs offered in the county. They included reductions in leadership, staff, institutional resources, data monitoring, and the programs themselves. Data were analyzed from May 2018 to March 2019. Intervention: Previous multifaceted interventions and outcome monitoring were withdrawn or diminished in the past decade. Main Outcomes and Measures: Smoking and age-adjusted mortality rates vs household income. Results: Reduced mortality rates in Franklin County in 1986 to 2005 reverted to those predicted by household incomes, relative to other Maine counties, by 2006 to 2015 (1986-1990 T score = -2.86 [P = .01] and 2001-2005 T score = -3.00 [P = .01] to 2006 to 2010 T score = -0.43 [P = .67] and 2011-2015 T score = -0.72 [P = .48]). Analysis of County Health Rankings data from 2010 to 2018 also showed that Franklin County's outcomes have reverted to no better than predicted by socioeconomic status. The county's T scores increased from -3.62 (P = .003) in 2010 to -0.41 (P = .69) in 2015 to 0.13 (P = .90) in 2018. Statewide association of income with mortality by analyses of variance showed that the R2 values have increased from the decades preceding 2000 (1976-1980, R2 = 0.21; P = .08; 1986-1990, R2 = 0.32; P = .02) to 2006 to 2010 (R2 = 0.73; P < .001) and 2011 to 2015 (R2 = 0.70; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that gains associated with population health interventions may be lost when the interventions are reduced. Adjusting outcome measures for socioeconomic status may allow quicker and more sensitive monitoring of intervention adequacy and success. The increasing trend of age-adjusted mortality in Maine and nationally to correlate inversely with incomes may warrant further community interventions, especially for poorer populations.

Community-wide cardiovascular disease prevention programs and health outcomes in a rural county, 1970-2010.

IMPORTANCE: Few comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction programs, particularly those in rural, low-income communities, have sustained community-wide interventions for more than 10 years and demonstrated the effect of risk factor improvements on reductions in morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To document health outcomes associated with an integrated, comprehensive cardiovascular risk reduction program in Franklin County, Maine, a low-income rural community. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Forty-year observational study involving residents of Franklin County, Maine, a rural, low-income population of 22,444 in 1970, that used the preceding decade as a baseline and compared Franklin County with other Maine counties and state averages. INTERVENTIONS: Community-wide programs targeting hypertension, cholesterol, and smoking, as well as diet and physical activity, sponsored by multiple community organizations, including the local hospital and clinicians. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Resident participation; hypertension and hyperlipidemia detection, treatment, and control; smoking quit rates; hospitalization rates from 1994 through 2006, adjusted for median household income; and mortality rates from 1970 through 2010, adjusted for household income and age. RESULTS: More than 150,000 individual county resident contacts occurred over 40 years. Over time, as cardiovascular risk factor programs were added, relevant health indicators improved. Hypertension control had an absolute increase of 24.7% (95% CI, 21.6%-27.7%) from 18.3% to 43.0%, from 1975 to 1978; later, elevated cholesterol control had an absolute increase of 28.5% (95% CI, 25.3%-31.6%) from 0.4% to 28.9%, from 1986 to 2010. Smoking quit rates improved from 48.5% to 69.5%, better than state averages (observed - expected [O - E], 11.3%; 95% CI, 5.5%-17.7%; P < .001), 1996-2000; these differences later disappeared when Maine's overall quit rate increased. Franklin County hospitalizations per capita were less than expected for the measured period, 1994-2006 (O - E, -17 discharges/1000 residents; 95% CI -20.1 to -13.9; P < .001). Franklin was the only Maine county with consistently lower adjusted mortality than predicted over the time periods 1970-1989 and 1990-2010 (O - E, -60.4 deaths/100,000; 95% CI, -97.9 to -22.8; P < .001, and -41.6/100,000; 95% CI, -77.3 to -5.8; P = .005, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Sustained, community-wide programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors and behavior changes to improve a Maine county's population health were associated with reductions in hospitalization and mortality rates over 40 years, compared with the rest of the state. Further studies are needed to assess the generalizability of such programs to other US county populations, especially rural ones, and to other parts of the world.

How much effort is needed to keep up with the literature relevant for primary care?

OBJECTIVES: Medicine must keep current with the research literature, and keeping current requires continuously updating the clinical knowledge base (i.e., references that provide answers to clinical questions). The authors estimated the volume of medical literature potentially relevant to primary care published in a month and the time required for physicians trained in medical epidemiology to evaluate it for updating a clinical knowledge base. METHODS: We included journals listed in five primary care journal review services (ACP Journal Club, DynaMed, Evidence-Based Practice, Journal Watch, and QuickScan Reviews). Finding little overlap, we added the 2001 "Brandon/Hill Selected List of Print Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library." We counted articles (including letters, editorials, and other commentaries) published in March 2002, using bibliographic software where possible and hand counting when necessary. For journals not published in March 2002, we reviewed the nearest issue. Five primary care physicians independently evaluated fifty randomly selected articles and timed the process. RESULTS: The combined list contained 341 currently active journals with 8,265 articles. Adjusting for publication frequency, we estimate 7,287 articles are published monthly in this set of journals. Physicians trained in epidemiology would take an estimated 627.5 hours per month to evaluate these articles. CONCLUSIONS: To provide practicing clinicians with the best current evidence, more comprehensive and systematic literature surveillance efforts are needed.