RESUMO
PURPOSE: To estimate the prevalence of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in Singapore in the year 2030. This projection will help in planning appropriate care provision and build health services capacity to cater to the increasing healthcare demand in 2030. METHODS: The number of AMD patients aged 40-79 years from all Singaporeans was estimated using prevalence rates from a local study and using the United Nations population projections for Singapore to 2030. Age-specific mortality was accounted for. Additionally, two main scenarios were presented: (1) Projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were not taking preventive antioxidant vitamins; (2) projected number of wet AMD cases if patients were taking preventive antioxidant vitamins. Based on these scenarios, the economic burden was calculated. The number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained as a result of improvement in visual acuity (VA) due to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment was also calculated. RESULTS: An estimated growth of 42% in the number of wet AMD cases is expected by 2030. The estimated economic burden of wet AMD in 2030 for scenarios 1 and 2 is Singapore $203.1 million and $162.9 million, respectively. The QALYs gained as a result of improved VA from wet AMD treatment ranged from 10,114.4 to 14,058.8 over a 5-year period for the 2030 cohort. CONCLUSION: The burden of wet AMD is set to increase over the next 15 years. Appropriate measures to build healthcare capacity and plan for this expected surge in patients should be a priority in Singapore.
