The risk of Type 1 diabetes in children born after ART: a Nordic cohort study from the CoNARTaS group.

STUDY QUESTION: Do children born after ART have a higher risk of developing Type 1 diabetes (DM1) than children conceived without ART? SUMMARY ANSWER: The risk of DM1 was similar for children conceived with and without ART, and there were no clear differences in risk according to method of fertility treatment. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: ART is associated with a higher risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, and the risk depends on the method of ART. The Developmental Origins of Health and Disease theory proposes that prenatal stress can provoke changes in endocrine processes which impact health later in life. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: A Nordic register-based cohort study was carried out, including all children born in Denmark (birth years 1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), and Norway (1984-2015). The study included 76 184 liveborn singletons born after ART and 4 403 419 born without ART. Median follow-up was 8.3 and 13.7 years in the ART and non-ART group, respectively. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: The cohort, initiated by the Committee of Nordic Assisted Reproductive Technology and Safety (CoNARTaS), was established by linking national registry data from the medical birth registries and national patient registries available in the Nordic countries. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses for the birth year intervals 1984-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, and 2011-2015, while adjusting for year of birth within each interval, sex of the child, parity, maternal age, maternal diabetes, and maternal smoking during pregnancy as potential confounders. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: During follow-up, 259 (3.4‰) children born after ART were diagnosed with DM1, while this was the case for 22 209 (5.0‰) born without ART, corresponding to an adjusted odds ratio of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.861.11). Within the different birth year intervals, no significant difference in risk of DM1 between the two groups was found, except for the youngest cohort of children born 2011-2015 where ART was associated with a higher risk of DM1. We found no significant differences in risk of DM1 when comparing children born after IVF versus ICSI or fresh versus frozen embryo transfer, but with only few cases in each group. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: The main limitation of the study is the relatively short follow-up time. The incidence rate of DM1 peaks during ages 10-14 years, hence a longer follow-up would benefit all analyses and, in particular, the subgroup analyses. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Overall, our findings are reassuring especially considering the concomitantly increasing number of children born from ART and the increasing incidence of DM1 globally. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This Nordic registry study has been supported by the Nordic Trial Alliance/NORDFORSK and Rigshospitalets Research Foundation. The funding sources had no role in study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication. None of the authors has any conflicts of interest to declare regarding this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11780826.

Gestational age at birth and type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood: a nationwide register study in Finland, Norway and Sweden.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Children and adults born preterm have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. However, there is limited information on risk patterns across the full range of gestational ages, especially after extremely preterm birth (23-27 weeks of gestation). We investigated the risk of type 1 diabetes in childhood and young adulthood across the full range of length of gestation at birth. METHODS: Data were obtained from national registers in Finland, Norway and Sweden. In each country, information on study participants and gestational age was collected from the Medical Birth Registers, information on type 1 diabetes diagnoses was collected from the National Patient Registers, and information on education, emigration and death was collected from the respective national register sources. Individual-level data were linked using unique personal identity codes. The study population included all individuals born alive between 1987 and 2016 to mothers whose country of birth was the respective Nordic country. Individuals were followed until diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, death, emigration or end of follow-up (31 December 2016 in Finland, 31 December 2017 in Norway and Sweden). Gestational age was categorised as extremely preterm (23-27 completed weeks), very preterm (28-31 weeks), moderately preterm (32-33 weeks), late preterm (34-36 weeks), early term (37-38 weeks), full term (39-41 weeks; reference) and post term (42-45 weeks). HRs and 95% CIs from country-specific covariate-adjusted Cox regression models were combined in a meta-analysis using a common-effect inverse-variance model. RESULTS: Among 5,501,276 individuals, 0.2% were born extremely preterm, 0.5% very preterm, 0.7% moderately preterm, 4.2% late preterm, 17.7% early term, 69.9% full term, and 6.7% post term. A type 1 diabetes diagnosis was recorded in 12,326 (0.8%), 6364 (0.5%) and 16,856 (0.7%) individuals at a median age of 8.2, 13.0 and 10.5 years in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Individuals born late preterm or early term had an increased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with their full-term-born peers (pooled, multiple confounder-adjusted HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07, 1.18; and 1.15, 95% CI 1.11, 1.18, respectively). However, those born extremely preterm or very preterm had a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.45, 0.88; and 0.78, 95% CI 0.67, 0.92, respectively). These associations were similar across all three countries. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Individuals born late preterm and early term have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes while individuals born extremely preterm or very preterm have a decreased risk of type 1 diabetes compared with those born full term.

Estimating the impact of bias in causal epidemiological studies: the case of health outcomes following assisted reproduction.

Researchers interested in causal questions must deal with two sources of error: random error (random deviation from the true mean value of a distribution), and bias (systematic deviance from the true mean value due to extraneous factors). For some causal questions, randomization is not feasible, and observational studies are necessary. Bias poses a substantial threat to the validity of observational research and can have important consequences for health policy developed from the findings. The current piece describes bias and its sources, outlines proposed methods to estimate its impacts in an observational study, and demonstrates how these methods may be used to inform debate on the causal relationship between medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and health outcomes, using cancer as an example. In doing so, we aim to enlighten researchers who work with observational data, especially regarding the health effects of MAR and infertility, on the pitfalls of bias, and how to address them. We hope that, in combination with the provided example, we can convince readers that estimating the impact of bias in causal epidemiologic research is not only important but necessary to inform the development of robust health policy and clinical practice recommendations.

Risk of stroke the year following a delivery after using assisted reproductive technologies.

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate that individuals who deliver after assisted reproductive technologies (ART) may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A recent large study from the U.S. showed a higher risk of stroke during the first year after delivery. OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of stroke during the first year after delivery according to the use of ART in the Nordic countries. METHODS: Registry-based cohort study using nationwide data from Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1984-2015) and Sweden (1985-2015). Data on ART conception were available from ART quality registries and/or Medical Birth Registries (MBRs). National data on stroke were available from hospital and cause-of-death registries. The risk of stroke during the first year after delivery was estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression, adjusting for age, calendar year of delivery, multiple births, and country. RESULTS: A total of 2,659,272 primiparous individuals had a registered delivery in the MBRs during the study period, and 91,466 (4%) of these gave birth after ART. We observed no overall increased risk of stroke during the first year after delivery among individuals conceiving after ART (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% CI 0.77, 1.57). Similarly, there was no convincing evidence that the short-term risk of stroke was higher within 1, 2, 3, or 6 months after delivery, with adjusted HRs ranging between 1.23 and 1.33 and confidence intervals including the null value for all time periods. A secondary analysis also including multiparous individuals (n = 3,335,478) at the start of follow-up yielded similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of an increased short-term risk of stroke among individuals who delivered after using ART.

Gestational age at birth and hospitalisations for infections among individuals aged 0-50 years in Norway: a longitudinal, register-based, cohort study.

Background: Preterm birth is associated with increased risk of childhood infections. Whether this risk persists into adulthood is unknown and limited information is available on risk patterns across the full range of gestational ages. Methods: In this longitudinal, register-based, cohort study, we linked individual-level data on all individuals born in Norway (January 01, 1967-December 31, 2016) to nationwide hospital data (January 01, 2008-December 31, 2017). Gestational age was categorised as 23-27, 28-31, 32-33, 34-36, 37-38, 39-41, and 42-44 completed weeks. The analyses were stratified by age at follow-up: 0-11 months and 1-5, 6-14, 15-29, and 30-50 years. The primary outcome was hospitalisation due to any infectious disease, with major infectious disease groups as secondary outcomes. Adjusted hospitalisation rate ratios (RRs) for any infection and infectious disease groups were estimated using negative binomial regression. Models were adjusted for year of birth, maternal age at birth, parity, and sex, and included an offset parameter adjusted for person-time at risk. Findings: Among 2,695,830 individuals with 313,940 hospitalisations for infections, we found a pattern of higher hospitalisation risk in lower gestational age groups, which was the strongest in childhood but still evident in adulthood. Comparing those born very preterm (28-31) and late preterm (34-36) to full-term (39-41 weeks), RRs (95% confidence interval) for hospitalisation for any infectious disease at ages 1-5 were 3.3 (3.0-3.7) and 1.7 (1.6-1.8), respectively. At 30-50 years, the corresponding estimates were 1.4 (1.2-1.7) and 1.2 (1.1-1.3). The patterns were similar for the infectious disease groups, including bacterial and viral infections, respiratory tract infections (RTIs), and infections not attributable to RTIs. Interpretation: Increasing risk of hospitalisations for infections in lower gestational age groups was most prominent in children but still evident in adolescents and adults. Possible mechanisms and groups that could benefit from vaccinations and other prevention strategies should be investigated. Funding: St. Olav's University Hospital and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norwegian Research Council, Liaison Committee for education, research and innovation in Central Norway, European Commission, Academy of Finland, Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, Foundation for Pediatric Research, and Signe and Ane Gyllenberg Foundation.

Maternal Risk of Cardiovascular Disease After Use of Assisted Reproductive Technologies.

Importance: The use of assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) is steadily increasing worldwide. The outcomes associated with treatment for an individual's long-term health, including risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), remain largely unknown, due to the small number of studies and their limited follow-up time. Objective: To study whether the risk of CVD is increased among individuals who have given birth after ART compared with those who have given birth without ART. Design, Setting, and Participants: A registry-based cohort study was conducted using nationwide data from Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1984-2015), and Sweden (1985-2015). Data analysis was conducted from January to August 2022. A total of 2 496 441 individuals with a registered delivery in the national birth registries during the study period were included, and 97 474 (4%) of these gave birth after ART. Exposures: Data on ART conception were available from ART quality registries and/or medical birth registries. Main Outcomes and Measures: Information on CVD was available from patient and cause of death registries. The risk of CVD was estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, calendar year of start of follow-up, parity, diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome, diabetes, chronic hypertension, and country. Results: Median follow-up was 11 (IQR, 5-18) years. The mean (SD) age of women with no use of ART was 29.1 (4.9) years, and the age of those who used ART was 33.8 (4.7) years. The rate of any CVD was 153 per 100 000 person-years. Individuals who gave birth after using ART had no increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.91-1.02), with evidence of heterogeneity between the countries (I2 = 76%; P = .01 for heterogeneity). No significant differences in the risk of ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, pulmonary embolism, or deep vein thrombosis were noted with use of ART. However, there was a tendency for a modest reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction (AHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.99), with no notable heterogeneity between countries. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that women who gave birth after ART were not at increased risk of CVD over a median follow-up of 11 years compared with those who conceived without ART. Longer-term studies are needed to further examine whether ART is associated with higher risk of CVD.

Risk of congenital malformations in live-born singletons conceived after intracytoplasmic sperm injection: a Nordic study from the CoNARTaS group.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the risk of major congenital malformations is higher in live-born singletons conceived with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) compared with in vitro fertilization (IVF)? DESIGN: Nordic register-based cohort study. SETTING: Cross-linked data from Medical Birth Registers and National ART and Patient Registers in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Data were included from the year the first child conceived using ICSI was born: Sweden, 1992; Denmark, 1994; and Norway, 1996. Data were included until 2014 for Denmark and 2015 for Norway and Sweden. PATIENT(S): All live-born singletons conceived using fresh ICSI (n = 32,484); fresh IVF (n = 47,178); without medical assistance (n = 4,804,844); and cryo-ICSI (n = 7,200) during the study period. INTERVENTION(S): Different in vitro conception methods, and cryopreservation of embryos. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Risk of major congenital malformations on the basis of International Classification of Diseases codes. The European Concerted Action on Congenital Anomalies and Twins was used to differentiate between major and minor malformations. RESULT(S): Among singletons conceived using fresh ICSI, 6.0% had a major malformation, compared with 5.3% of children conceived using fresh IVF; 4.2% of children conceived without medical assistance; and 4.9% of children conceived using cryo-ICSI; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.14) in ICSI vs. IVF; and AOR 1.28 (95% CI, 1.23-1.35) in ICSI vs. no medical assistance; and AOR 1.11 (95% CI, 0.99-1.26) in ICSI fresh vs. cryo-ICSI. When malformations were grouped by different organ systems, children conceived using ICSI had a higher risk of respiratory and chromosomal malformations compared with children conceived using IVF, but there were very few cases in each group. When categorizing children conceived using ICSI according to treatment indication (male factor infertility only vs. other indications), we found a higher risk of hypospadias when ICSI was performed because of male factor infertility only (AOR 1.85 [95% CI 1.03-332]). The indications for ICSI changed over time, as male factor infertility did not remain the primary indication for ICSI throughout the study period. CONCLUSION(S): In this large cohort study, we found the risk of major malformations in live-born singletons to be slightly higher after fresh ICSI compared with fresh IVF. These findings should be considered when choosing the assisted reproductive technology method for couples without male factor infertility.

Non-progressive breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening: a population study.

BACKGROUND: Some breast carcinomas detected at screening, especially ductal carcinoma in situ, may have limited potential for progression to symptomatic disease. To determine non-progression is a challenge, but if all screening-detected breast tumors eventually reach a clinical stage, the cumulative incidence at a reasonably high age would be similar for women with or without screening, conditional on the women being alive. METHODS: Using high-quality population data with 24 years of follow-up from the gradually introduced BreastScreen Norway program, we studied whether all breast carcinomas detected at mammography screening 50-69 years of age would progress to clinical symptoms within 85 years of age. First, we estimated the incidence rates of breast carcinomas by age in scenarios with or without screening, based on an extended age-period-cohort incidence model. Next, we estimated the frequency of non-progressive tumors among screening-detected cases, by calculating the difference in the cumulative rate of breast carcinomas between the screening and non-screening scenarios at 85 years of age. RESULTS: Among women who attended BreastScreen Norway from the age of 50 to 69 years, we estimated that 1.1% of the participants were diagnosed with a breast carcinoma without the potential to progress to symptomatic disease by 85 years of age. This proportion of potentially non-progressive tumors corresponded to 15.7% [95% CI 3.3, 27.1] of breast carcinomas detected at screening. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that nearly one in six breast carcinomas detected at screening may be non-progressive.

Preterm birth and asthma and COPD in adulthood: a nationwide register study from two Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth affects lungs in several ways but few studies have follow-up until adulthood. We investigated the association of the entire spectrum of gestational ages with specialist care episodes for obstructive airway disease (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)) at age 18-50 years. METHODS: We used nationwide registry data on 706 717 people born 1987-1998 in Finland (4.8% preterm) and 1 669 528 born 1967-1999 in Norway (5.0% preterm). Care episodes of asthma and COPD were obtained from specialised healthcare registers, available in Finland for 2005-2016 and in Norway for 2008-2017. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for having a care episode with either disease outcome. RESULTS: Odds of any obstructive airway disease in adulthood for those born at <28 or 28-31 completed weeks were 2-3-fold of those born full term (39-41 completed weeks), persisting after adjustments. For individuals born at 32-33, 34-36 or 37-38 weeks, the odds were 1.1- to 1.5-fold. Associations were similar in the Finnish and the Norwegian data and among people aged 18-29 and 30-50 years. For COPD at age 30-50 years, the OR was 7.44 (95% CI 3.49-15.85) for those born at <28 weeks, 3.18 (95% CI 2.23-4.54) for those born at 28-31 weeks and 2.32 (95% CI 1.72-3.12) for those born at 32-33 weeks. Bronchopulmonary dysplasia in infancy increased the odds further for those born at <28 and 28-31 weeks. CONCLUSION: Preterm birth is a risk factor for asthma and COPD in adulthood. The high odds of COPD call for diagnostic vigilance when adults born very preterm present with respiratory symptoms.

The challenges of selective fertility and carryover effects in within-sibship analyses: the effect of assisted reproductive technology on perinatal mortality as an example.

BACKGROUND: Within-sibship analyses show lower perinatal mortality after assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared with natural conception (NC), a finding that appears biologically unlikely. We investigated whether this may be attributed to bias from selective fertility and carryover effects. METHODS: Using data from national registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014) and Norway and Sweden (1988-2015), we studied 5 722 826 singleton pregnancies, including 119 900 ART-conceived and 37 590 exposure-discordant sibships. Perinatal mortality at the population level and within sibships was compared using multilevel logistic regression with random and fixed intercepts, respectively. We estimated selective fertility as the proportion of primiparous women with and without perinatal loss who had a second delivery, and carryover effects through bidirectional and crosswise associations. RESULTS: Population analysis showed higher perinatal mortality among ART conception compared with NC (odds ratio 1.21, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.30), whereas within-sibship analysis showed the opposite (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.43). Primiparous women with perinatal loss were more likely to give birth again (selective fertility) and to use ART in this subsequent pregnancy (carryover effects), resulting in strong selection of double-discordant sibships with death of the naturally conceived and survival of the ART-conceived sibling. After controlling for conception method and outcome in the first pregnancy, ART was not consistently associated with perinatal mortality in the second pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas population estimates may be biased by residual confounding, within-sibship estimates were biased by selective fertility and carryover effects. It remains unclear whether ART conception contributes to perinatal mortality.

Risk of ovarian cancer in women who give birth after assisted reproductive technology (ART)-a registry-based Nordic cohort study with follow-up from first pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that assisted reproductive technology (ART) may increase ovarian cancer risk, but previous studies are inconclusive. We compared ovarian cancer risk for women who gave birth after ART vs natural conception. METHODS: Through linkage of nationwide registry data, we followed 3,303,880 initially nulliparous women in Denmark (1994-2014), Finland (1990-2014), Norway (1984-2015) and Sweden (1985-2015) from first pregnancy ≥22 weeks to ovarian cancer, emigration, death or end of follow-up (2014/2015). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs), adjusting for age, parity, maternal birth year and country, and for body mass index and smoking in subsamples. RESULTS: Mean age at first birth was 27.7 years. During a mean follow-up of 14.4 person-years, 2683 participants (0.08%) developed ovarian cancer; 135 after ART and 2548 after natural conception only (incidence rates 11.6 and 5.5 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The risk was higher for women who ever gave birth after ART (HR 1.70, 95% confidence interval 1.42-2.03) compared to natural conception. Associations were stronger for conventional in vitro fertilisation than for intracytoplasmic sperm injection. CONCLUSIONS: Among parous women, ART-conception was associated with a higher risk of ovarian cancer than natural conception. Further studies should decipher whether this is causal or confounded by infertility or other factors.

Risk of stillbirth and neonatal death in singletons born after fresh and frozen embryo transfer: cohort study from the Committee of Nordic Assisted Reproduction Technology and Safety.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether risks of stillbirth and neonatal death differ after fresh embryo transfers (fresh-ETs) and frozen embryo transfers (frozen-ETs) compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance. DESIGN: A population-based cohort study. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Data linkage between the nationwide Medical Birth Registries in Denmark (1994-2014), Norway and Sweden (1988-2015), and national quality registries and databases on assisted reproductive technology identified a total of 4,590,853 singletons, including 78,642 conceived by fresh-ET and 18,084 by frozen-ET. INTERVENTION(S): None MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Stillbirth (fetal death before and during delivery) and neonatal death (live born with death 0-27 days postpartum). RESULT(S): Overall, 17,123 (0.37%) singletons were stillborn and 7,685 (0.17%) died neonatally. Compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance, the odds of stillbirth were similar after fresh-ET and frozen-ET, whereas the odds of neonatal death were high after fresh-ET (odds ratio [OR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46-1.95) and frozen-ET (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.08-2.10). Preterm birth (<37 gestational weeks) was more common after fresh-ET (8.0%) and frozen-ET (6.6%) compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance (5.0%), and strongly associated with neonatal mortality across all conception methods. Within gestational age categories, risk of stillbirth and neonatal death was similar for all conception methods, except that singletons from fresh-ET had a higher risk of stillbirth during gestational week 22-27 (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51-2.26). CONCLUSION(S): Overall, the risk of stillbirth was similar after fresh-ET and frozen-ET compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance, whereas neonatal mortality was high, possibly mediated by the high risk of preterm birth when compared with singletons conceived without medical assistance. Our results gave no clear support for choosing one treatment over the other.

Risk of Hypertensive Disorders in Pregnancy After Fresh and Frozen Embryo Transfer in Assisted Reproduction: A Population-Based Cohort Study With Within-Sibship Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Frozen embryo transfer (frozen-ET) is increasingly common because of improved cryopreservation methods and elective freezing of all embryos. Frozen-ET is associated with higher risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy than both natural conception and fresh embryo transfer (fresh-ET), but whether this is attributable to parental factors or treatment is unknown. METHODS: Using the Medical Birth Registries of Denmark (1994-2014), Norway, and Sweden (1988-2015), linked to data from national quality registries and databases on assisted reproduction, we designed a population-based cohort study with within-sibship comparison. We included 4 426 691 naturally conceived, 78 300 fresh-ET, and 18 037 frozen-ET singleton pregnancies, of which 33 209 sibships were conceived using different conception methods. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy for fresh-ET and frozen-ET versus natural conception with 95% CI were estimated using multilevel logistic regression, where random effects provided conventional population-level estimates and fixed effects gave within-sibship estimates. Main models included adjustment for birth year, maternal age, parity, and country. RESULTS: Risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy was higher after frozen-ET compared to natural conception, both at population-level (7.4% versus 4.3%, aOR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.61-1.89]) and within sibships (aOR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.72-2.39]). For fresh-ET, risk was similar to natural conception, both at population-level (aOR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.98-1.07]) and within sibships (aOR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.89-1.09]). CONCLUSIONS: Frozen-ET was associated with substantially higher risk of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, even after accounting for shared parental factors within sibships.

Long term trends of breast cancer incidence according to proliferation status.

BACKGROUND: Long-term breast cancer incidence trends according to proliferation status are poorly described. We studied time-trends in breast cancer incidence, using mitotic count and Ki-67 as markers of proliferation. METHODS: Among 83,298 Norwegian women followed for breast cancer occurrence 1961-2012, 2995 incident breast cancers were diagnosed. Ki-67 was assessed using immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays and mitoses were counted on whole sections. We compared incidence rates according to proliferation status among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimating age-specific incidence rate ratios. We performed multiple imputations to account for unknown proliferation status. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic counts were calculated, according to age and birth year. We performed separate incidence analyses for HER2+ and triple negative breast cancers. RESULTS: Among women aged 40-69 years, incidence rates of tumours with low-proliferative activity were higher among those born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929, according to Ki-67 and mitotic count. Incidence rates of tumours with high-proliferative activity were also higher in women born in 1929 or later compared to before 1929 according to Ki-67, but not according to mitotic count. Mean values of Ki-67 and mitotic count varied according to age and birth year. In subtype-specific analyses we found an increase of high-proliferative HER2+ tumours according to Ki-67 in women born in 1929 or later, compared to before 1929. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a temporal increase in both low- and high-proliferative breast cancers.

Interpreting Breast Cancer Mortality Trends Related to Introduction of Mammography Screening: A Simulation Study.

Background. Several studies have evaluated the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality based on overall breast cancer mortality trends, with varied conclusions. The statistical power of such trend analyses is, however, not carefully studied. Methods. We estimated how the effect of screening on overall breast cancer mortality is likely to unfold. Because a screening effect is based on earlier treatment, screening can affect only new incident cases after screening introduction. To evaluate the likelihood of detecting screening effects on overall breast cancer mortality time trends, we calculated the statistical power of joinpoint regression analysis on breast cancer mortality trends around screening introduction using simulations. Results. We found that a very gradual increase in population-level screening effect is expected due to prescreening incident cases. Assuming 25% effectiveness of a biennial screening program in reducing breast cancer mortality among women 50 to 69 y of age, the expected reduction in overall breast cancer mortality was 3% after 2 y and reached a long-term effect of 18% after 20 y. In common settings, the statistical power to detect any screening effects using joinpoint regression analysis is very low (<50%), even in an artificial setting of constant risk of baseline breast cancer mortality over time. Conclusions. Population effects of screening on breast cancer mortality emerge very gradually and are expected to be considerably lower than the effects reported in trials excluding women diagnosed before screening. Studies of overall breast cancer mortality time trends have too low statistical power to reliably detect screening effects in most populations. Implications. Researchers and policy makers evaluating mammography screening should avoid using breast cancer mortality trend analysis that does not separate pre- and postscreening incident cases. Highlights: Population-level mammography screening effects on breast cancer mortality emerge gradually following screening introduction, resulting in very low statistical power of trend analysis.Researchers and policy makers evaluating mammography screening should avoid relying on population-wide breast cancer mortality trends.Expected mammography screening effects at population level are lower than those from screening trials, as many cases of breast cancer fall outside the screening age range.

Cancer in children born after frozen-thawed embryo transfer: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to investigate whether children born after assisted reproduction technology (ART), particularly after frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET), are at higher risk of childhood cancer than children born after fresh embryo transfer and spontaneous conception. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a registry-based cohort study using data from the 4 Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The study included 7,944,248 children, out of whom 171,774 children were born after use of ART (2.2%) and 7,772,474 children were born after spontaneous conception, representing all children born between the years 1994 to 2014 in Denmark, 1990 to 2014 in Finland, 1984 to 2015 in Norway, and 1985 to 2015 in Sweden. Rates for any cancer and specific cancer groups in children born after each conception method were determined by cross-linking national ART registry data with national cancer and health data registries and population registries. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the risk of any cancer, with age as the time scale. After a mean follow-up of 9.9 and 12.5 years, the incidence rate (IR) of cancer before age 18 years was 19.3/100,000 person-years for children born after ART (329 cases) and 16.7/100,000 person-years for children born after spontaneous conception (16,184 cases). Adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 1.21, p = 0.18. Adjustment was performed for sex, plurality, year of birth, country of birth, maternal age at birth, and parity. Children born after FET had a higher risk of cancer (48 cases; IR 30.1/100,000 person-years) compared to both fresh embryo transfer (IR 18.8/100,000 person-years), aHR 1.59, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.20, p = 0.005, and spontaneous conception, aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.19, p = 0.001. Adjustment either for macrosomia, birth weight, or major birth defects attenuated the association marginally. Higher risks of epithelial tumors and melanoma after any assisted reproductive method and of leukemia after FET were observed. The main limitation of this study is the small number of children with cancer in the FET group. CONCLUSIONS: Children born after FET had a higher risk of childhood cancer than children born after fresh embryo transfer and spontaneous conception. The results should be interpreted cautiously based on the small number of children with cancer, but the findings raise concerns considering the increasing use of FET, in particular freeze-all strategies without clear medical indications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number: ISRCTN 11780826.

Visual and digital assessment of Ki-67 in breast cancer tissue - a comparison of methods.

BACKGROUND: In breast cancer (BC) Ki-67 cut-off levels, counting methods and inter- and intraobserver variation are still unresolved. To reduce inter-laboratory differences, it has been proposed that cut-off levels for Ki-67 should be determined based on the in-house median of 500 counted tumour cell nuclei. Digital image analysis (DIA) has been proposed as a means to standardize assessment of Ki-67 staining in tumour tissue. In this study we compared digital and visual assessment (VA) of Ki-67 protein expression levels in full-face sections from a consecutive series of BCs. The aim was to identify the number of tumour cells necessary to count in order to reflect the growth potential of a given tumour in both methods, as measured by tumour grade, mitotic count and patient outcome. METHODS: A series of whole sections from 248 invasive carcinomas of no special type were immunohistochemically stained for Ki-67 and then assessed by VA and DIA. Five 100-cell increments were counted in hot spot areas using both VA and DIA. The median numbers of Ki-67 positive tumour cells were used to calculate cut-off levels for Low, Intermediate and High Ki-67 protein expression in both methods. RESULTS: We found that the percentage of Ki-67 positive tumour cells was higher in DIA compared to VA (medians after 500 tumour cells counted were 22.3% for VA and 30% for DIA). While the median Ki-67% values remained largely unchanged across the 100-cell increments for VA, median values were highest in the first 1-200 cells counted using DIA. We also found that the DIA100 High group identified the largest proportion of histopathological grade 3 tumours 70/101 (69.3%). CONCLUSIONS: We show that assessment of Ki-67 in breast tumours using DIA identifies a greater proportion of cases with high Ki-67 levels compared to VA of the same tumours. Furthermore, we show that diagnostic cut-off levels should be calibrated appropriately on the introduction of new methodology.

The neurodevelopmental morbidity of children born after assisted reproductive technology: a Nordic register study from the Committee of Nordic Assisted Reproductive Technology and Safety group.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of neurodevelopmental disorders in singletons born after the use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) compared with singletons born without the use of ART. DESIGN: Nordic register-based study. SETTING: Cross-linked data from Medical Birth Registers and National ART and Patient Registers; liveborn singletons in 1995-2014 in Denmark and Finland, 2005-2015 in Norway, and 1995-2015 in Sweden with follow-up to 2014 (Denmark and Finland) or 2015 (Norway and Sweden). PATIENTS: A total of 5,076,444 singletons: 116,909 (2.3%) born with and 4,959,535 (97.7%) born without the use of ART (non-ART). INTERVENTIONS: In vitro fertilization, intracytoplasmic sperm injection, and fresh and frozen embryo transfer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, codes) were learning and motor functioning disorders (F80-F83), autism spectrum disorder (F84), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorders (F90-F92), and tic disorders (F95). Crude hazard ratios (HRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: Singletons in the ART cohort had a higher adjusted risk of learning and motor functioning disorders (HR, 1.01 [0.96-1.07]; aHR, 1.17 [1.11-1.24]) and a tendency toward a higher risk of autism spectrum disorder (HR, 1.12 [1.04-1.21]; aHR, 1.07 [0.98-1.16]) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and conduct disorders (HR, 0.82 [0.77-0.86]; aHR, 1.17 [0.99-1.12]) but not of tic disorders (HR, 1.21 [1.06-1.38]; aHR, 1.17 [0.96-1.27]). No differences in risk were found between children born after in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection or after fresh and frozen embryo transfer. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings of only small differences in neurodevelopment between ART and non-ART singletons are reassuring and in line with previous studies.

Cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in children born after assisted reproductive technology: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Some earlier studies have found indications of significant changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART). Most of these studies are based on small cohorts with high risk of selection bias. In this study, we compared the risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes between singleton children born after ART and singleton children born after spontaneous conception (SC). METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a large population-based cohort study of individuals born in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark between 1984 and 2015. Data were obtained from national ART and medical birth registers and cross-linked with data from national patient registers and other population-based registers in the respective countries. In total, 122,429 children born after ART and 7,574,685 children born after SC were included. Mean (SD) maternal age was 33.9 (4.3) years for ART and 29.7 (5.2) for SC, 67.7% versus 41.8% were primiparous, and 45.2% versus 32.1% had more than 12 years of education. Preterm birth (<37 weeks 0 days) occurred in 7.9% of children born after ART and 4.8% in children born after SC, and 5.7% versus 3.3% had a low birth weight (<2,500 g). Mean (SD) follow-up time was 8.6 (6.2) years for children born after ART and 14.0 (8.6) years for children born after SC. In total, 135 (0.11%), 645 (0.65%), and 18 (0.01%) children born after ART were diagnosed with cardiovascular disease (ischemic heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, or cerebrovascular disease), obesity or type 2 diabetes, respectively. The corresponding values were 10,702 (0.14%), 30,308 (0.74%), and 2,919 (0.04%) for children born after SC. In the unadjusted analysis, children born after ART had a significantly higher risk of any cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95% CI 1.04-1.48; p = 0.02), obesity (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05-1.23; p = 0.002), and type 2 diabetes (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.08-2.73; p = 0.02). After adjustment, there was no significant difference between children born after ART and children born after SC for any cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR [aHR]1.02; 95% CI 0.86-1.22; p = 0.80) or type 2 diabetes (aHR 1.31; 95% CI 0.82-2.09; p = 0.25). For any cardiovascular disease, the 95% CI was reasonably narrow, excluding effects of a substantial magnitude, while the 95% CI for type 2 diabetes was wide, not excluding clinically meaningful effects. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk among children born after ART (aHR 1.14; 95% CI 1.06-1.23; p = 0.001). Important limitations of the study were the relatively short follow-up time, the limited number of events for some outcomes, and that the outcome obesity is often not considered as a disease and therefore not caught by registers, likely leading to an underestimation of obesity in both children born after ART and children born after SC. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed no difference in the risk of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes between children born after ART and children born after SC. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk for children born after ART. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN11780826.