Outcomes 15 years after valve replacement with a mechanical versus a bioprosthetic valve: final report of the Veterans Affairs randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to compare long-term survival and valve-related complications between bioprosthetic and mechanical heart valves. BACKGROUND: Different heart valves may have different patient outcomes. METHODS: Five hundred seventy-five patients undergoing single aortic valve replacement (AVR) or mitral valve replacement (MVR) at 13 VA medical centers were randomized to receive a bioprosthetic or mechanical valve. RESULTS: By survival analysis at 15 years, all-cause mortality after AVR was lower with the mechanical valve versus bioprosthesis (66% vs. 79%, p = 0.02) but not after MVR. Primary valve failure occurred mainly in patients <65 years of age (bioprosthesis vs. mechanical, 26% vs. 0%, p < 0.001 for AVR and 44% vs. 4%, p = 0.0001 for MVR), and in patients > or =65 years after AVR, primary valve failure in bioprosthesis versus mechanical valve was 9 +/- 6% versus 0%, p = 0.16. Reoperation was significantly higher for bioprosthetic AVR (p = 0.004). Bleeding occurred more frequently in patients with mechanical valve. There were no statistically significant differences for other complications, including thromboembolism and all valve-related complications between the two randomized groups. CONCLUSIONS: At 15 years, patients undergoing AVR had a better survival with a mechanical valve than with a bioprosthetic valve, largely because primary valve failure was virtually absent with mechanical valve. Primary valve failure was greater with bioprosthesis, both for AVR and MVR, and occurred at a much higher rate in those aged <65 years; in those aged > or =65 years, primary valve failure after AVR was not significantly different between bioprosthesis and mechanical valve. Reoperation was more common for AVR with bioprosthesis. Thromboembolism rates were similar in the two valve prostheses, but bleeding was more common with a mechanical valve.

Risk factors for morbidity and mortality after colectomy for colon cancer.

PURPOSE: Comorbid conditions affect the risk of adverse outcomes after surgery, but the magnitude of risk has not previously been quantified using multivariate statistical methods and prospectively collected data. Identifying factors that predict results of surgical procedures would be valuable in assessing the quality of surgical care. This study was performed to define risk factors that predict adverse events after colectomy for cancer in Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. METHODS: The National Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program contains prospectively collected and extensively validated data on more than 415,000 surgical operations. All patients undergoing colectomy for colon cancer from 1991 to 1995 who were registered in the National Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program database were selected for study. Independent variables examined included 68 preoperative and 12 intraoperative clinical risk factors; dependent variables were 21 specific adverse outcomes. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to construct models predicting the 30-day mortality rate and 30-day morbidity rates for each of the ten most frequent complications. RESULTS: A total of 5,853 patients were identified; 4,711 (80 percent) underwent resection and primary anastomosis. One or more complications were observed in 1,639 of 5,853 (28 percent) patients. Prolonged ileus (439/5,853; 7.5 percent), pneumonia (364/5,853; 6.2 percent), failure to wean from the ventilator (334/5,853; 5.7 percent), and urinary tract infection (292/5,853; 5 percent) were the most frequent complications. The 30-day mortality rate was 5.7 percent (335/5,853). For most complications, 30-day in-hospital mortality rates were significantly higher for patients with a complication than for those without. Thirty-day mortality rates exceeded 50 percent if postoperative coma, cardiac arrest, a pre-existing vascular graft prosthesis that failed after colectomy, renal failure, pulmonary embolism, or progressive renal insufficiency occurred. Preoperative factors that predicted a high risk of 30-day mortality included ascites, serum sodium >145 mg/dl, "do not resuscitate" status before surgery, American Society of Anesthesiologists classes III and IV OR V, and low serum albumin. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates after colectomy in Veterans Affairs hospitals are comparable with those reported in other large studies. Ascites, hypernatremia, do not resuscitate status before surgery, and American Society of Anesthesiologists classes III and IV OR V were strongly predictive of perioperative death. Clinical trials to decrease the complication rate after colectomy for colon cancer should focus on these risk factors.

Prognostic models of thirty-day mortality and morbidity after major pulmonary resection.

BACKGROUND: A part of the prospective, multi-institutional National Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program was developed to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity for patients undergoing a major pulmonary resection. METHODS: Perioperative data were acquired from 194,319 noncardiac surgical operations at 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers between October 1, 1991, and August 31, 1995. Current Procedural Terminology code-based analysis was undertaken for major pulmonary resections (lobectomy and pneumonectomy). Preoperative, intraoperative, and outcome variables were collected. The 30-day mortality and morbidity models were developed by means of multivariable stepwise logistic regression with the preoperative and intraoperative variables used as independent predictors of outcome. RESULTS: A total of 3516 patients (mean age 64 9 years) underwent either lobectomy (n = 2949) or pneumonectomy (n = 567). Thirty-day mortality was 4.0% for lobectomy (119/2949) and 11.5% for pneumonectomy (65/567). The preoperative predictors of 30-day mortality were albumin, do not resuscitate status, transfusion of more than 4 units, age, disseminated cancer, impaired sensorium, prothrombin time more than 12 seconds, type of operation, and dyspnea. When the intraoperative variables were considered, intraoperative blood loss was added to the preoperative model. In the presence of these intraoperative variables in the model, do not resuscitate status and prothrombin time more than 12 seconds were only marginally significant. Thirty-day morbidity, defined as the presence of 1 or more of the 21 predefined complications, was 23.8% for lobectomy (703/2949) and 25.7% for pneumonectomy (146/567). In multivariable models, independent preoperative predictors (P <.05) of 30-day morbidity were age, weight loss greater than 10% in the 6 months before surgery, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transfusion of more than 4 units, albumin, hemiplegia, smoking, and dyspnea. When intraoperative variables were added to the preoperative model, the duration of operation time and intraoperative transfusions were included in the model and albumin became marginally significant. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis identifies independent patient risk factors that are associated with 30-day mortality and morbidity for patients undergoing a major pulmonary resection. This series provides an initial risk-adjustment model for major pulmonary resections. Future refinements will allow comparative assessment of surgical outcomes and quality of care at many institutions.

Risk adjustment of the postoperative morbidity rate for the comparative assessment of the quality of surgical care: results of the National Veterans Affairs Surgical Risk Study.

BACKGROUND: The National Veterans Affairs Surgical Risk Study was designed to collect reliable, valid data on patient risk and outcomes for major surgery in the Veterans Health Administration and to report comparative risk-adjusted postoperative mortality and morbidity rates for surgical services in the Veterans Health Administration. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cohort study conducted at 44 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers closely affiliated with university medical centers. Included were 87,078 major noncardiac operations performed under general, spinal, or epidural anesthesia between October 1, 1991, and December 31, 1993. The main outcomes measures in this report are 21 postoperative adverse events (morbidities) occurring within 30 days after the index procedure. Multivariable logistic regression risk-adjustment models for all operations and for eight surgical subspecialties were developed. RESULTS: Patient risk factors predictive of postoperative morbidity included serum albumin level, American Society of Anesthesia class, the complexity of the operation, and 17 other preoperative risk variables. Wide variation in the unadjusted rates of one or more postoperative morbidities for all operations was observed across the 44 hospitals (7.4-28.4%). Risk-adjusted observed-to-expected ratios ranged from 0.49 to 1.46. The Spearman rank order correlation between the ranking of the hospitals based on unadjusted morbidity rates and risk-adjusted observed-to-expected ratios for all operations was 0.87. There was little or no correlation between the rank order of the hospitals by risk-adjusted morbidity and risk-adjusted mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The Department of Veterans Affairs has successfully implemented a system for the prospective collection and comparative reporting of postoperative mortality and morbidity rates after major noncardiac operations. Risk adjustment had only a modest effect on the rank order of the hospitals.

Determinants of the occurrence of and survival from prosthetic valve endocarditis. Experience of the Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

For the determination of the risk factors associated with the development of and death caused by prosthetic valve endocarditis, data were reviewed from 66 patients who were prospectively entered into the Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease and in whom prosthetic valve endocarditis subsequently developed. Data were recorded at 13 medical centers between October 1977 and September 1982 in patients randomized to receive a mechanical valve (Bjork-Shiley spherical disc, n = 510 patients) or a bioprosthetic valve (Hancock porcine heterograft, n = 522 patients). The average rate of prosthetic valve endocarditis development was 0.8% per year over an average follow-up period of 7.7 years. Of the 66 patients in whom prosthetic valve endocarditis developed (5.8%), 15 cases occurred within 2 months of operation (early) and 51 occurred after operation (late). The most significant preoperative predictor of prosthetic valve endocarditis was active endocarditis at the time of operation (7.4% versus 0.9%) (p = 0.001). Early prosthetic valve endocarditis occurred more frequently in patients who underwent operation for multivalvular disease (p = 0.023). Significantly related perioperative variables were coma, prolonged mechanical ventilation, deep postoperative wound infection, postoperative jaundice, ventricular tachycardia, ventricular fibrillation, and replacement of more than one valve (p < 0.05). Multivariate predictors were hypoxia (p = 0.001), preoperative endocarditis (p = 0.003), preoperative valve lesion (p = 0.020), and resident surgeon (p = 0.05). Significant preoperative variables predictive of late prosthetic valve endocarditis were mitral stenosis and mixed mitral stenosis-regurgitation. The only multivariate predictor of late prosthetic valve endocarditis was superficial wound infection (p = 0.004). Of deaths attributable to prosthetic valve endocarditis, 41% occurred in patients treated with antibiotics alone, 48% occurred in patients treated with surgical intervention and antibiotics, and death resulted in both patients who received no treatment. No difference was found in the risk of early or late postoperative prosthetic valve endocarditis developing in patients receiving the mechanical valve versus those receiving the bioprosthetic valve.

Comparison of the causes of late death following aortic and mitral valve replacement. VA Co-operative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

This report examines and compares the causes of late non-surgical death in 146 of 690 (21%) patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) and in 79 of 273 (29%) patients undergoing mitral valve replacement (MVR) over a five year follow up period. The distribution of valve related, cardiac but not valve-related and non-cardiac deaths was 43%, 23% and 34% respectively for AVR and 65%, 29% and 6% respectively for MVR; the difference between these distributions was statistically significant. The specific causes of valve related deaths included bleeding (11% vs. 5% for MVR vs. AVR), systemic embolization (6% vs. 4% for MVR vs. AVR), endocarditis (14% vs. 8% for MVR vs. AVR), valve regurgitation (8% vs. 5% for MVR vs. AVR) and valve obstruction (3% vs. 5% for MVR vs. AVR). Sudden death (less than one hour from the onset of acute symptoms) accounted for 23% of deaths for MVR and 16% for AVR. The deaths due to congestive heart failure with normal prosthetic valve function were 13% and 8% for MVR and AVR respectively. Non-cardiac causes accounted for only 6% of MVR deaths but 34% of AVR deaths (p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in the late mortality between mechanical and bioprosthetic valves in the aortic position (24% vs. 22%), but the cumulative rate of late deaths was higher in patients with the Björk-Shiley than with the Hancock valve in the mitral position (41% vs. 25%, p < 0.02). In conclusion, about one quarter of patients surviving either aortic or mitral valve replacement died within five years.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A comparison of outcomes in men 11 years after heart-valve replacement with a mechanical valve or bioprosthesis. Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Mechanical heart valves are durable but thrombogenic, and their use requires that the patient receive anticoagulants. In contrast, bioprosthetic valves are less thrombogenic, but they have limited durability because of tissue deterioration. METHODS: To compare the outcomes of patients who receive these two types of valves, we randomly assigned 575 men scheduled to undergo aortic-valve or mitral-valve replacement to receive either a mechanical or a bioprosthetic valve. The primary end points were death from any cause and any valve-related complication. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 11 years, there was no difference between the two groups in the probability of death from any cause (11-year probability for mechanical valves, 0.57; for bioprostheses, 0.62; P = 0.57) or in the probability of any valve-related complication (0.65 and 0.69, respectively; P = 0.39). There was a much higher rate of structural valve failure among patients who received bioprosthetic valves (11-year probability, 0.15 for the aortic valves and 0.36 for the mitral valves) than among those who received mechanical valves (no valve failures; P < 0.001). However, this difference was offset by a higher rate of bleeding complications among patients with mechanical valves than among those with bioprosthetic valves (11-year probability, 0.42 and 0.26, respectively; P < 0.001) and by a greater frequency of peri-prosthetic valvular regurgitation among patients with mechanical mitral valves than among those with mitral bioprostheses (11-year probability, 0.17 and 0.09, respectively; P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: After 11 years, the rates of survival and freedom from all valve-related complications were similar for patients who received mechanical heart valves and those who received bioprosthetic heart valves. However, structural failure was observed only with the bioprosthetic valves, whereas bleeding complications were more frequent among patients who received mechanical valves.

Impact of resident training on postoperative morbidity in patients undergoing single valve replacement. Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

As one of the requirements of the Department of Veterans Affairs cooperative study on valvular heart disease, operative and postoperative data were prospectively collected in 964 patients undergoing single valve replacement. The procedure was performed either by a resident under the direct supervision of an attending surgeon (49.5%) or by an attending surgeon (50.5%). There was no difference in operative mortality between the two groups of surgeons when adjusted for patient-related and disease-related risk factors. The proportion of patients who had at least one postoperative complication was slightly but not significantly higher in the attending group (35.8% versus 30.4% for aortic valve replacement, 38% versus 28% for mitral valve replacement, and 36% versus 30% for all single valve replacement procedures). As the significance of each complication varies, we weighted each complication to the associated operative mortality to formulate the morbidity score. An expected complication rate for each group was derived from a multivariate logistic model, and the ratio of observed to expected morbidity was calculated to adjust observed morbidity according to the risk of patients. There was no difference in the observed/expected morbidity ratio between the two groups of surgeons. We conclude that currently used teaching techniques and philosophy to educate cardiac surgical residents, which allow them to take progressive responsibility for cardiac surgical procedures, are well justified, and patient care does not suffer when resident training is enhanced.

Determinants of survival and left ventricular performance after mitral valve replacement. Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

To determine how survival and clinical status were related to left ventricular (LV) size and systolic function after mitral valve replacement, 104 patients (48 mitral regurgitation [MR], 33 mitral stenosis [MS], and 23 MS/MR) with isolated mitral valve replacement were evaluated before and after surgery. Preoperative hemodynamic abnormalities by cardiac catheterization were improved 6 months after surgery in all three patient groups. The patients with MR exhibited reductions in LV end-diastolic volume index (EDVI) (117 +/- 51 to 89 +/- 27 ml/m2, p less than 0.001) and ejection fraction (EF) (0.56 +/- 0.15 to 0.45 +/- 0.13, p less than 0.001); however, the ratio of forward stroke volume to end-diastolic volume increased (0.32 +/- 0.21 to 0.45 +/- 0.17, p less than 0.001) because of the elimination of regurgitant volume. Survival analysis revealed that mortality was significantly higher in MS or MS/MR patients with postoperative EDVI more than 101 ml/m2 (p less than 0.001 and p less than 0.042, respectively) and in MR patients with postoperative EF less than or equal to 0.50 (p less than 0.031). Also, the majority of patients with MR or MS/MR and postoperative EDVI more than 101 ml/m2 and EF less than or equal to 0.50 were in New York Heart Association class III or IV. Multivariate logistic regression analysis in the patients with MR revealed that the strongest predictor of postoperative EF was preoperative EF (p less than 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Preoperative identification of patients likely to have left ventricular dysfunction after aortic valve replacement. Participants in the Veterans Administration Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

The purpose of this study was to identify preoperative and intraoperative variables predictive of left ventricular dysfunction 6 months after aortic valve replacement. Patients were considered to have postoperative left ventricular dysfunction if the end-diastolic-volume index was greater than or equal to 101 ml/m2 or if the ejection fraction was less than or equal to 0.50. Data from 180 patients entered into the Veterans Administration Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease who had technically satisfactory cardiac catheterizations 6 months postoperatively were analyzed by a series of univariate and multivariate analyses. For the 88 patients with preoperative aortic stenosis, the most powerful predictor of postoperative left ventricular dysfunction in the final multivariate model was preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction (p = 0.0001), followed by preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.012), aortic valve gradient (p = 0.020), and incomplete coronary revascularization (p = 0.059). Abnormal preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction had a sensitivity of 72% and a specificity of 82% in identifying patients with postoperative left ventricular dysfunction. Preoperative left ventricular systolic-volume index greater than or equal to 40 ml/m2 had a similar sensitivity and specificity (79% and 84%, respectively). For the 36 patients with aortic regurgitation, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction was again the most powerful predictor of postoperative left ventricular dysfunction (p = 0.013), followed by left ventricular systolic pressure (p = 0.038) and arteriovenous oxygen difference (p = 0.054). For the 56 patients with mixed aortic stenosis and regurgitation, left ventricular systolic pressure (p = 0.007) and preoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.022) were the variables predictive of postoperative left ventricular dysfunction. Although many patients with preoperative left ventricular dysfunction experience improved left ventricular performance after aortic valve replacement, performance does not always return to normal. For patients with either aortic stenosis or regurgitation, the strongest predictor of postoperative left ventricular dysfunction is preoperative dysfunction. These data support the concept that patients with moderate or severe aortic stenosis or regurgitation should be operated on before the onset of significant left ventricular dysfunction.

Complications of cardiac catheterization and angiography in patients with valvular heart disease. VA Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

Complications were surveyed prospectively in 2,029 catheterizations performed on 1,483 patients from the 13 centers participating in the VA Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease. Complications were reported in 6.9% of 1,559 preoperative procedures of which 2.6% were major and 0.2% fatal. Clinical predictors of complications were hypertension and the precatheterization diagnosis of aortic stenosis. Nevertheless, patients with aortic stenosis successfully tolerated left ventriculography, which was routinely performed regardless of the magnitude of gradient. Procedural predictors of complication were brachial arteriotomy (vascular occlusion) and transseptal catheterization (tamponade). Among the 470 postoperative catheterizations performed solely for research purposes, there were six complications, of which five were bleeding events in patients taking warfarin. Transseptal catheterization was safer in postoperative patients with no cases of tamponade in 125 procedures.

Operative mortality in patients undergoing single valve replacement in teaching institutions--early mortality as a function of resident versus staff surgeon.

Nine hundred sixty-four patients undergoing single valve replacement (SVR) procedures alone or in combination with other cardiac surgical procedures were analyzed prospectively to determine whether the risks of operative mortality (OM) are different when the operation is performed by a resident under direct supervision of an attending surgeon (group I, 49.5%) or by an attending surgeon (group II, 50.5%). The overall OM rate was 8.4% (7.2% for group I and 9.7% for group II, which was not significant). Fifty-eight clinical, angiographic, and hemodynamic variables were analyzed to adjust statistically for differences in patient characteristics in each group. For aortic valve replacement, group II patients had smaller valve area and a higher incidence of three-vessel coronary artery disease, and more patients required resection of an ascending aortic aneurysm, whereas group I patients had higher incidence of peripheral edema and S3 gallop. For mitral valve replacement, more patients in group II had pleural effusion, previous cardiac operations, higher mean pulmonary artery pressures, mitral insufficiency due to coronary artery disease, and were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class 3 and 4, whereas the group I patients had higher incidence of S3 gallop and elevated serum creatinine. Expected OM for each group was derived from a multivariate logistic model. Ratio of observed-to-expected (O/E) OM was calculated to adjust observed OM according to the risk of patients. There was no difference in O/E mortality ratio between the two groups. We conclude that OM probability is not increased when the SVR procedure is performed by residents under direct supervision of attending surgeons when adjusted for patient- and disease-related risk factors. These findings also constitute compelling evidence that patient care does not suffer when resident teaching experience is enhanced in teaching institutions.

Six month postoperative hemodynamics of the Hancock heterograft and the Björk-Shiley prosthesis: results of a Veterans Administration cooperative prospective randomized trial.

In a Veterans Administration Cooperative Study involving 13 medical centers, 575 patients undergoing single valve replacement were prospectively randomized to receive either the standard Björk-Shiley prosthesis or the Hancock porcine heterograft (with a modified orifice for sizes 23 and smaller). The hemodynamic data in the 268 patients who underwent cardiac catheterization an average of 6 months (range 3 to 12) postoperatively are reported. Statistical analyses were performed on valve sizes 23, 25 and 27 in the aortic position, and 29, 31 and 33 in the mitral position. A wide variation was observed in mean pressure gradient and calculated orifice area in both valve types within all sizes in both the aortic and the mitral positions. In the aortic position, the Björk-Shiley prosthesis tended to have a lower pressure gradient and larger calculated orifice area than the Hancock heterograft, but the differences in gradient between the two valve types were significant only in the larger-sized valves. The difference in calculated area between the two valve types was not significant within each valve size. In the mitral position, there were no differences in gradient and calculated orifice area between the two types of prostheses. The postoperative cardiac index, regurgitant volume, pulmonary artery systolic and mean pressures, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index did not differ in patients receiving the Björk-Shiley prosthesis from values in patients receiving the Hancock heterograft. Hence, the overall hemodynamic performance of both types of valves is remarkably similar. The choice between these two prostheses should, therefore, be governed not by the hemodynamic performance, but by other factors such as valve durability, risk of anticoagulation and incidence of valve-related complications.

Comparison of outcome after valve replacement with a bioprosthesis versus a mechanical prosthesis: initial 5 year results of a randomized trial.

The Veterans Administration Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease was organized to compare survival and incidence of valve-related complications between patients receiving a bioprosthesis (the Hancock porcine heterograft) and a mechanical prosthesis (the Björk-Shiley spherical disc valve). Five hundred seventy-five patients undergoing single aortic or mitral valve replacement were randomized at surgery to one of the two valve types. At an average follow-up of 5 years (range 3 to 8) there are no statistically significant differences in survival between patients with the two valve types in the aortic valve replacement group. There is a statistically nonsignificant trend toward improved survival in patients undergoing mitral valve replacement with a bioprosthesis compared with a mechanical prosthesis (5 year survival probability was 0.70 +/- 0.05 and 0.58 +/- 0.06, respectively). Fatal and nonfatal valve-related complications occurred significantly less frequently in patients with a bioprosthesis compared with a mechanical prosthesis for both mitral and aortic valve replacement. Five year complication-free probability was 0.67 +/- 0.05 and 0.45 +/- 0.06, respectively, for patients with mitral valve replacement and 0.63 +/- 0.04 and 0.53 +/- 0.04, respectively, for those with aortic valve replacement. The difference in overall complication rates was largely due to the increased number of clinically significant but nonfatal bleeding episodes in patients receiving a mechanical prosthesis. Adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics between patients receiving a mitral mechanical prosthesis and a mitral bioprosthesis reduced the statistical significance of the difference in both mortality and complications.

Clinical, hemodynamic, and angiographic predictors of operative mortality in patients undergoing single valve replacement. Veterans Administration Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease.

Preoperative characteristics of 964 patients in the Veterans Administration Cooperative Study on Valvular Heart Disease undergoing single valve replacement were examined to determine predictors of operative mortality. The operative mortality rate was 8.3% in 661 patients having isolated aortic valve disease and 7.5% in 239 patients having isolated mitral valve disease, but 12.5% in 64 patients with multivalve disease undergoing single valve replacement. For the aortic valve replacement subgroup, three-vessel coronary artery disease, left ventricular systolic pressure, prior cardiac operation, body surface area, and cardiac index were related to operative mortality. In the mitral valve replacement group, there was a strong association of operative mortality with advanced age, exertional dizziness, reduced cardiac index, left ventricular contraction grade, ST segment depression on the resting electrocardiogram, and pleural effusion. The risk of operative death for an individual patient undergoing aortic or mitral valve replacement may be estimated with the use of independent risk factors.