Multivariate prediction of major adverse cardiac events after 9914 percutaneous coronary interventions in the north west of England.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariate prediction model for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) by using the North West Quality Improvement Programme in Cardiac Interventions (NWQIP) PCI Registry. SETTING: All NHS centres undertaking adult PCIs in north west England. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 9914 consecutive patients undergoing adult PCI between 1 August 2001 and 31 December 2003. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken, with the forward stepwise technique, to identify independent risk factors for MACE. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistic were calculated to assess the performance and calibration of the model, respectively. The statistical model was internally validated by using the technique of bootstrap resampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: MACE, which were in-hospital mortality, Q wave myocardial infarction, emergency coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and cerebrovascular accidents. RESULTS: Independent variables identified with an increased risk of developing MACE were advanced age, female sex, cerebrovascular disease, cardiogenic shock, priority, and treatment of the left main stem or graft lesions during PCI. The ROC curve for the predicted probability of MACE was 0.76, indicating a good discrimination power. The prediction equation was well calibrated, predicting well at all levels of risk. Bootstrapping showed that estimates were stable. CONCLUSIONS: A contemporaneous multivariate prediction model for MACE after PCI was developed. The NWQIP tool allows calculation of the risk of MACE permitting meaningful risk adjusted comparisons of performance between hospitals and operators.

Positron emission tomography using(18)F-fluoro-deoxyglucose and euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic glucose clamp: optimal criteria for the prediction of recovery of post-ischaemic left ventricular dysfunction. Results from the European Community Concerted Action Multicenter study on use of(18)F-fluoro-deoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography for the Detection of Myocardial Viability.

AIMS: To assess the accuracy of positron emission tomography to predict recovery of global cardiac function after revascularization in patients with coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and seventy-eight patients (157 male, 58+/-10 years) with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction (mean ejection fraction 39+/-14%) were enrolled in six European centres. They underwent a common protocol for the assessment of viability using(18)F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography during a standardized euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic glucose clamp before revascularization by either surgery (n=140) or angioplasty (n=38). Seven patients were excluded because of incomplete revascularization of a dysfunctional region. Based on the recovery of global ejection fraction 2-6 months after revascularization, patients were classified into two groups: 82 patients who had a >5% improvement in ejection fraction postoperatively, and 89 patients without postoperative ejection fraction improvement. Optimal cut-off points for postoperative improvement of global cardiac function were computed, using receiver operating curve analysis. The highest sensitivity (79%) and specificity (55%) for predicting postoperative ejection fraction improvement by positron emission tomography was found when three or more dysfunctional segments had a relative FDG uptake >45% of normal remote myocardium (overall accuracy 67%). CONCLUSIONS: In a large cohort of coronary patients with impaired ejection fraction, FDG positron emission tomography demonstrated high sensitivity and moderate specificity to predict improvement of cardiac function after coronary revascularization.