Multimarker Analysis of Serially Measured GDF-15, NT-proBNP, ST2, GAL-3, cTnI, Creatinine, and Prognosis in Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Studies on serially measured GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) in acute heart failure (HF) are limited. Moreover, several pathophysiological pathways contribute to HF. Therefore, we aimed to explore the (additional) prognostic value of serially measured GDF-15 using a multi-marker approach to more accurately predict HF risk. METHODS: TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and Novel Strategies for Management of Patients With Heart Failure) is a prospective cohort of 496 patients with acute HF who were enrolled in 14 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014. Blood sampling was scheduled at 7 moments during 1-year follow-up. GDF-15, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), ST2 (suppression of tumorigenicity 2), galectin-3, troponin I, and creatinine were measured in a central laboratory. We associated repeated measurements of these biomarkers with the composite primary end point of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, using multivariable joint modeling. RESULTS: Median age was 74 years, and 37% were women. Median baseline GDF-15 was 4632 pg/mL. The primary end point was reached in 188 (40%) patients. The average estimated GDF-15 level increased weeks before the primary end point was reached. The hazard ratio per 1 SD difference in log-GDF-15 was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.78-2.57) unadjusted, 1.96 (1.49-2.53) after adjustment for clinical confounders and 1.44 (1.05-1.91) when jointly modeled with all biomarkers. The adjusted HRs for NT-proBNP were 2.38 (1.78-3.33) and 1.52 (1.15-2.08), respectively. The multimarker model combining GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and troponin I provided a favorable risk discrimination (area under the curve=0.785). CONCLUSIONS: Sequentially measured GDF-15 independently and dynamically predicts risk of adverse outcomes during 1-year follow-up after index admission for acute HF. NT-proBNP remains a robust predictor among potential candidates. Multiple biomarkers should be considered for stratification in clinical practice. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/1783; Unique Identifier: NTR1893. (The trial can be found temporarily at https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=NTR1893.).

Prognostic Value of Serial Galectin-3 Measurements in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Several clinical studies have evaluated the association between galectin-3 levels and outcome in patients with heart failure (HF). However, little is known about the predictive value of repeated galectin-3 measurements. This study evaluates the prognostic value of repeated time-dependent galectin-3 measurements in acute HF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and Novel Strategies for Management of Patients with Heart Failure) clinical cohort study, 496 acute HF patients were enrolled in 14 hospitals in The Netherlands, between 2009 and 2014. Repeated blood samples (7) were drawn during 1-year follow-up. Associations between repeated biomarker measurements and the primary end point were assessed using a joint model. Median age was 74 years and 37% were women. The primary end point, composite of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, was reached in 188 patients (40%), during a median follow-up of 325 days (interquartile range 85-401). The median baseline galectin-3 level was 24 ng/mL (interquartile range 18-34). The mean number of galectin-3 measurements available per patient was 4.3. After adjustment for clinical factors and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, there was a weak association between baseline galectin-3 and risk of the primary end point. When repeated measurements were taken into account, the adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD increase of the galectin-3 level (on the log2 scale) at any time point increased to 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.23, P<0.001). After additional adjustment for repeated N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide measurements, the association remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated galectin-3 measurements appeared to be a strong predictor of outcome in acute HF patients, independent of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Hence, galectin-3 may be helpful in clinical practice for prognostication and treatment monitoring.

Prognostic Value of Serial ST2 Measurements in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Several clinical studies have evaluated the association between ST2 and outcome in patients with heart failure (HF). However, little is known about the predictive value of frequently measured ST2 levels in patients with acute HF. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to describe the prognostic value of baseline and repeated ST2 measurements in patients with acute HF. METHODS: In the TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure) clinical cohort study, 496 patients with acute HF were enrolled in 14 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014. Repeated blood samples (7) were drawn during 1-year follow-up. ST2 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels were measured in a central laboratory. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization. Associations between repeated biomarker measurements and the primary endpoint were assessed using a joint model. RESULTS: Median age was 74 years, and 37% of patients were women. The primary endpoint was reached in 188 patients (40%) during a median follow-up of 325 days (interquartile range: 85 to 401). The median baseline ST2 level was 71 ng/ml (interquartile range: 46 to 102). After adjustment for clinical factors and NT-proBNP, baseline ST2 was associated with an increased risk of the primary endpoint, and the hazard ratio per 1 SD increase of the baseline ST2 level (on the log2 scale) was 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 1.56; p = 0.005). When repeated measurements were taken into account, the adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD increase of the ST2 level (on the log2 scale) during follow-up increased to 1.85 (95% confidence interval: 1.02 to 3.33; p = 0.044), adjusted for clinical factors and repeated measurements of NT-proBNP. Furthermore, ST2 levels appeared to elevate several weeks before the time of the primary endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated ST2 measurements appeared to be a strong predictor of outcome in patients with acute HF, independent of repeatedly measured NT-proBNP. Hence ST2 may be helpful in clinical practice for prognostication and treatment monitoring. (TRanslational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure [TRIUMPH]; NTR1893).