Beyond Barnwell: Applying lessons learned from the Barnwell site to other historic underground nuclear tests at Pahute Mesa to understand radioactive gas-seepage observations.

An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) generates radioactive gases that can be transported through fractures to the ground surface over timescales of hours to months. If detected, the presence of particular short-lived radionuclides in the gas can provide strong evidence that a recent UNE has occurred. By drawing comparisons between sixteen similar historical U.S. UNEs where radioactive gas was or was not detected, we identified factors that control the occurrence and timing of breakthrough at the ground surface. The factors that we evaluated include the post-test atmospheric conditions, local geology, and surface geology at the UNE sites. The UNEs, all located on Pahute Mesa on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), had the same announced yield range (20-150 kt), similar burial depths in the unsaturated zone, and were designed and performed by the same organization during the mid-to-late 1980s. Results of the analysis indicate that breakthrough at the ground surface is largely controlled by a combination of the post-UNE barometric pressure changes in the months following the UNE, and the volume of air-filled pore space above the UNE. Conceptually simplified numerical models of each of the 16 historical UNEs that include these factors successfully predict the occurrence (5 of the UNEs) or lack of occurrence (remaining 11 UNEs) of post-UNE gas seepage to the ground surface. However, the data analysis and modeling indicates that estimates of the meteorological conditions and of the post-UNE, site-specific subsurface environment including air-filled porosity, in combination, may be necessary to successfully predict late-time detectable gas breakthrough for a suspected UNE site.

Identification of dominant gas transport frequencies during barometric pumping of fractured rock.

We demonstrate that although barometric pressures are complicated signals comprised of numerous frequencies, it is a subset of these frequencies that drive the overwhelming majority of gas transport in fractured rock. Using an inverse numerical analysis, we demonstrate that a single barometric component with seasonally modulated amplitude approximates gas transport due to a measured barometric signal. If past barometric tendencies are expected to continue at a location, the identification of this frequency can facilitate accurate long term predictions of barometrically induced gas transport negating the need to consider stochastic realizations of future barometric variations. Additionally, we perform an analytical analysis that indicates that there is a set of barometric frequencies, consistent with the inverse numerical analysis, with high production efficiency. Based on the corroborating inverse numerical and analytical analyses, we conclude that there is a set of dominant gas transport frequencies in barometric records.

The Role of Fault-Zone Architectural Elements on Pore Pressure Propagation and Induced Seismicity.

We used hydrogeologic models to assess how fault-zone properties promote or inhibit the downward propagation of fluid overpressures from a basal reservoir injection well (150 m from fault zone, Q = 5000 m3 /day) into the underlying crystalline basement rocks. We varied the permeability of the fault-zone architectural components and a crystalline basement weathered layer as part of a numerical sensitivity study. Realistic conduit-barrier style fault zones effectively transmit elevated pore pressures associated with 4 years of continuous injection to depths of approximately 2.5 km within the crystalline basement while compartmentalizing fluid flow within the injection reservoir. The presence of a laterally continuous, relatively low-permeability altered/weathered basement horizon (kaltered layer = 0.1 × kbasement ) can limit the penetration depth of the pressure front to approximately 500 m. On the other hand, the presence of a discontinuous altered/weathered horizon that partially confines the injection reservoir without blocking the fault fluid conduit promotes downward propagation of pressures. Permeability enhancement via hydromechanical failure was found to increase the depth of early-time pressure front migration by a factor of 1.3 to 1.85. Dynamic permeability models may help explain seismicity at depths of greater than 10 km such as is observed within the Permian Basin, NM.

Cutting hospital costs without cutting staff.

A hospital that is seeking ways to cut costs without compromising care should resist the temptation to lay off staff and instead make it a priority to improve efficiencies. This approach requires a formal program to identify and analyze all of the hospital's processes. The focus of the analysis should be to determine which activities are being performed efficiently, which are being performed inefficiently, and which are unnecessary. This effort will achieve the greatest success if it is customer-centric.