Assessment of the risk of introduction of Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in municipal solid waste from the quarantine area of New York City to landfills outside of the quarantine area: a pathway analysis of the risk of spread and establishment.

The risk associated with spread of Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky), from infested areas in New York City to the wide array of landfills across the eastern United States contracted by the city since 1997 was unknown, but of great concern. Landfills, some as far as South Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, occupied forest types and climates at high risk of Asian longhorned beetle establishment. The city proposed a separate waste wood collection known as the "311 System;" this was estimated to cost federal and state agencies $6.1 to $9.1 million per year, including the cost of processing and disposal of the wood. Pathway analysis was used to quantify the probability that Asian longhorned beetle present in wood waste collected at curbside would survive transport, compaction, and burial to form a mated pair. The study found that in seven alternate management scenarios, risks with most pathways are very low, especially given existing mitigations. Mitigations included chemical control, removal of infested trees, and burial of wood waste in managed landfills that involved multiple-layering, compaction, and capping of dumped waste with a 15-cm soil cover at the end of each day. Although the risk of business-as-usual collection and disposal practices was virtually nil, any changes of policy or practice such as illegal dumping or disposal at a single landfill increased the risk many thousandfold. By rigorously maintaining and monitoring existing mitigations, it was estimated that taxpayers would save $75 to $122 million dollars over the next decade.

Modelling viral and CD4 cellular population dynamics in HIV: approaches to evaluate intervention strategies.

Computational models, such as in epidemiology, provide a powerful tool that can be used to systematically examine an array of dynamic interactions among populations as well as to evaluate altemate disease intervention strategies. The specific objectives in this study were to: a/ examine the interaction of cellular (CD4) and HIV population dynamics and evaluate the impact of the use of combination chemotherapies on viral and CD4 populations (Experiment #1), b/ demonstrate how modelling can be used to evaluate the impact of an intervention (condom use) on reducing the rate of HIV/AIDS (Experiment #2). In this study, we used state transition models and conducted simulation experiments to evaluate various alternatives for the control and/or prevention of HIV/AIDS. The result indicated that combination therapy (double or triple drug therapies) was very effective. The HIV viral population decreased rapidly and remained suppressed for years. On the other hand, the CD4 cell population increased above 400 cells per ml and was maintained above that level for many years. Mono-therapy was not as effective; although the viral load decreased rapidly, it increased to its original levels within a few months. Since condom use is one of the key interventions of HIV/AIDS, we evaluated its use in 25%, 50% and 75% of an adult, sexually active population. Increasing condom use by 50% and 75% above an estimated baseline of 25% reduced the incidence of AIDS by 53% in Blacks, 49% in Hispanics and 43% in Whites. The study shows how a cellular/molecular level model can be incorporated within a macro-epidemiologic systems dynamics model to evaluate a variety of scientific questions such as to see if cellular/molecular level interventions reduce morbidity and mortality rates in HIV.

A risk-assessment model for foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus introduction through deboned beef importation.

We present a risk-assessment model to assess the risk of introduction of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus associated with deboned beef importation. The model was developed in accordance with the risk-reduction procedures proposed by the European Community for meat importation. The risk reduction procedures include farm-level inspection, ante-mortem inspection, post-mortem inspection, chilling and deboning. The risk assessment was based on the prevalence of FMD-infected cattle in herds as well as the prevalence of infected herds in the exporting country. Computer simulations were carried out to evaluate the probability of FMD virus introduction by importing 100 tons of deboned beef in relation to FMD prevalence, number of cattle selected from each herd, and sample sizes in ante-mortem and post-mortem inspections. The effects of the risk-reduction procedures on the probability of FMD virus introduction were examined.