Development of a Machine Learning Model to Predict Cardiac Arrest during Transport of Trauma Patients.

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a serious medical and economic burden worldwide, and patients with traumatic injuries have a poor survival rate after cardiac arrest. The authors developed a prediction model specific to prehospital trauma care and used machine learning techniques to increase its accuracy. METHODS: This retrospective observational study analyzed data from patients with blunt trauma injuries due to traffic accidents and falls from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019. The data were collected from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, which stores emergency medical service activity records nationwide in the United States. A random forest algorithm was used to develop a machine learning model. RESULTS: The prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.95 and a negative predictive value of 0.99. The feature importance of the predictive model was highest for the AVPU (Alert, Verbal, Pain, Unresponsive) scale, followed by oxygen saturation (SpO2). Among patients who were progressing to cardiac arrest, the cutoff value was 89% for SpO2 in nonalert patients. CONCLUSIONS: The machine learning model was highly accurate in identifying patients who did not develop cardiac arrest.

Machine learning for predicting successful extubation in patients receiving mechanical ventilation.

Ventilator liberation is one of the most critical decisions in the intensive care unit; however, prediction of extubation failure is difficult, and the proportion thereof remains high. Machine learning can potentially provide a breakthrough in the prediction of extubation success. A total of seven studies on the prediction of extubation success using machine learning have been published. These machine learning models were developed using data from electronic health records, 8-78 features, and algorithms such as artificial neural network, LightGBM, and XGBoost. Sensitivity ranged from 0.64 to 0.96, specificity ranged from 0.73 to 0.85, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.70 to 0.98. The features deemed most important included duration of mechanical ventilation, PaO2, blood urea nitrogen, heart rate, and Glasgow Coma Scale score. Although the studies had limitations, prediction of extubation success by machine learning has the potential to be a powerful tool. Further studies are needed to assess whether machine learning prediction reduces the incidence of extubation failure or prolongs the duration of ventilator use, thereby increasing tracheostomy and ventilator-related complications and mortality.