Shipping costs and inflation.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of global shipping costs-measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better-anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variables approach in which changes in shipping costs are instrumented with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal.

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. OBJECTIVE: Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. METHODS: Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. RESULTS: We find evidence that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country's health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country's domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: By providing an early broad overview of the quantitative empirical estimates of the determinants of vaccine rollouts and the effects of COVID-19 vaccines, our paper can help policymakers make informed decisions about local and global distributions of vaccines, as well as related policy tools, such as containment measure.

Will COVID-19 Have Long-Lasting Effects on Inequality? Evidence from Past Pandemics.

This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-022-09540-y.

The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity.

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high-frequency indicators of economic activity-nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices-for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for nonlinear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

The impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic.

Rising temperature levels during spring and summer are often argued to enable lifting of strict containment measures even in the absence of herd immunity. Despite broad scholarly interest in the relationship between weather and coronavirus spread, previous studies come to very mixed results. To contribute to this puzzle, the paper examines the impact of weather on the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique granular dataset of over 1.2 million daily observations covering over 3700 counties in nine countries for all seasons of 2020. Our results show that temperature and wind speed have a robust negative effect on virus spread after controlling for a range of potential confounding factors. These effects, however, are substantially larger during mealtimes, as well as in periods of high mobility and low containment, suggesting an important role for social behaviour.

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries.

The empirical evidence on the growth effects of import tariffs is sparse in the literature, notwithstanding strong views held by the public and politicians. Using an annual panel of macroeconomic data for 151 countries over 1963-2014, we find that tariff increases are associated with an economically and statistically sizeable and persistent decline in output growth. Thus, fears that the ongoing trade war may be costly for the world economy in terms of foregone output growth are justified.