A sustainable blue economy may not be possible in Tanzania without cutting emissions.

Balancing blue growth with the conservation of wild species and habitats is a key challenge for global ocean management. This is exacerbated in Global South nations, such as Tanzania, where climate-driven ocean change requires delicate marine spatial planning (MSP) trade-offs to ensure climate resilience of marine resources relied upon by coastal communities. Here, we identified challenges and opportunities that climate change presents to the near-term spatial management of Tanzania's artisanal fishing sector, marine protected areas and seaweed farming. Specifically, spatial meta-analysis of climate modelling for the region was carried out to estimate the natural distribution of climate resilience in the marine resources that support these socially important sectors. We estimated changes within the next 20 and 40 years, using modelling projections forced under global emissions trajectories, as well as a wealth of GIS and habitat suitability data derived from globally distributed programmes. Multi-decadal analyses indicated that long-term climate change trends and extreme weather present important challenges to the activity of these sectors, locally and regionally. Only in few instances did we identify areas exhibiting climate resilience and opportunities for sectoral expansion. Including these climate change refugia and bright spots in effective ocean management strategies may serve as nature-based solutions: promoting adaptive capacity in some of Tanzania's most vulnerable economic sectors; creating wage-gaining opportunities that promote gender parity; and delivering some economic benefits of a thriving ocean where possible. Without curbs in global emissions, however, a bleak future may emerge for globally valuable biodiversity hosted in Tanzania, and for its coastal communities, despite the expansion of protected areas or curbs in other pressures. Growing a sustainable ocean economy in this part of the Global South remains a substantial challenge without global decarbonization.

Impact of climatic oscillations on marlin catch rates of Taiwanese long-line vessels in the Indian Ocean.

This study explored the influence of climatic oscillations on the striped, blue, and silver marlin catch rates in the Indian Ocean by using logbook data from Taiwanese large-scale fishing vessels and climate records from 1994 to 2016. Only the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the subtropical Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) had immediate effects on the striped and silver marlin catch rates. The positive and negative phases of the IOD at the lags of 7 and 3 years corresponded to increased and decreased catch rates, respectively, for both the striped and blue marlin, contrasting to the reverse pattern for the silver marlin. Similarly, all three marlin species experienced decreased and increased catch rates respectively during the positive and negative phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The striped and blue marlin catch rates decreased and increased during the positive and negative phases, respectively, of the SIOD and MJO with various lags. Our results suggest that the impacts of climatic oscillations on fish species are crucial for policymakers and coastal communities for managing marine resources, forecasting changes in marine ecosystems, and developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate variability.

Seasonal distribution patterns of Scomberomorus commerson in the Taiwan Strait in relation to oceanographic conditions: An ensemble modeling approach.

The decline in the stock of the narrow-barred Spanish mackerel in the Taiwan Strait has sparked interest in conservation efforts. To optimize conservation and restoration efforts, it is crucial to understand their habitat preference in response to changing environments. In this study, ensemble modeling was used to investigate the seasonal distribution patterns of Spanish mackerel. Winter was identified as the most productive season, followed by fall; productivity was the lowest in summer. Five single-algorithm models were developed, and on the basis of their performance, four were selected for inclusion in an ensemble species distribution model. The spatial distribution of Spanish mackerel was primarily along the latitudinal range 23°-25°N in spring and summer. However, in fall and winter, the geographical range increased toward the southern region. The findings of this study will contribute to the understanding of this specific species and the approach used in this study may be applicable to other fisheries stocks also.

Depth and habitat are important drivers of abundance for predatory reef fish off Pemba Island, Tanzania.

Coral reefs across the world face significant threats from fishing and climate change, which tends to be most acute in shallower waters. This is the case off Pemba Island, Tanzania, yet the effects of these anthropogenic stressors on the distribution and abundance of economically and ecologically important predatory reef fish, including how they vary with depth and habitat type, is poorly understood. Thus, we deployed 79 baited remote underwater videos (BRUVs) in variable water depths and habitats off Pemba Island, and modeled the effects of depth and habitat on abundance of predatory reef fish. Predatory reef fish types/taxa were significantly predicted by depth and habitat types. Habitats in relatively deeper waters and dominated by hard and soft corals hosted high species richness and abundance of predatory reef fish types/taxa compared to mixed sandy and rubble habitats. The findings add to the growing evidence that deep waters around coral reefs are important habitats for predatory reef fish. Thus, careful management, through effective area and species protection measures, is needed to prevent further depletion of predatory reef-associated fish populations and to conserve this biologically important area.

Protection outcomes for fish trophic groups across a range of management regimes.

Understanding how Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) improve conservation outcomes across anthropogenic pressures can improve the benefits derived from them. Effects of protection for coral reefs in the western and central Indian Ocean were assessed using size-spectra analysis of fish and the relationships of trophic group biomass with human population density. Length-spectra relationships quantifying the relative abundance of small and large fish (slope) and overall productivity of the system (intercept) showed inconsistent patterns with MPA protection. The results suggest that both the slopes and intercepts were significantly higher in highly and well-protected MPAs. This indicates that effective MPAs are more productive and support higher abundances of smaller fish, relative to moderately protected MPAs. Trophic group biomass spanning piscivores and herbivores, decreased with increasing human density implying restoration of fish functional structure is needed. This would require addressing fisher needs and supporting effective MPA management to secure ecosystem benefits for coastal communities.

Disentangling drivers of the abundance of coral reef fishes in the Western Indian Ocean.

AIM: Understanding the drivers of the structure of coral reef fish assemblages is vital for their future conservation. Quantifying the separate roles of natural drivers from the increasing influence of anthropogenic factors, such as fishing and climate change, is a key component of this understanding. It follows that the intrinsic role of historical biogeographical and geomorphological factors must be accounted for when trying to understand the effects of contemporary disturbances such as fishing. LOCATION: Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique and Tanzania, Western Indian Ocean (WIO). METHODS: We modeled patterns in the density and biomass of an assemblage of reef-associated fish species from 11 families, and their association with 16 biophysical variables. RESULTS: Canonical analysis of principal coordinates revealed strong country affiliations of reef fish assemblages and distance-based linear modeling confirmed geographic location and reef geomorphology were the most significant correlates, explaining 32% of the observed variation in fish assemblage structure. Another 6%-8% of variation was explained by productivity gradients (chl_a), and reef exposure or slope. Where spatial effects were not significant between mainland continental locations, fishing effects became evident explaining 6% of the variation in data. No correlation with live coral was detected. Only 37 species, predominantly lower trophic level taxa, were significant in explaining differences in assemblages between sites. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Spatial and geomorphological histories remain a major influence on the structure of reef fish assemblages in the WIO. Reef geomorphology was closely linked to standing biomass, with "ocean-exposed" fringing reefs supporting high average biomass of ~1,000 kg/ha, while "lagoon-exposed fringing" reefs and "inner seas patch complex" reefs yielded substantially less at ~500kg/ha. Further, the results indicate the influence of benthic communities on fish assemblages is scale dependent. Such insights will be pivotal for managers seeking to balance long-term sustainability of artisanal reef fisheries with conservation of coral reef systems.