Optimization of frequency and targeting of measles supplemental immunization activities in Nigeria: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Measles causes significant childhood morbidity in Nigeria. Routine immunization (RI) coverage is around 40% country-wide, with very high levels of spatial heterogeneity (3-86%), with supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) at 2-year or 3-year intervals. We investigated cost savings and burden reduction that could be achieved by adjusting the inter-campaign interval by region. METHODS: We modeled 81 scenarios; permuting SIA calendars of every one, two, or three years in each of four regions of Nigeria (North-west, North-central, North-east, and South). We used an agent-based disease transmission model to estimate the number of measles cases and ingredients-based cost models to estimate RI and SIA costs for each scenario over a 10 year period. RESULTS: Decreasing SIAs to every three years in the North-central and South (regions of above national-average RI coverage) while increasing to every year in either the North-east or North-west (regions of below national-average RI coverage) would avert measles cases (0.4 or 1.4 million, respectively), and save vaccination costs (save $19.4 or $5.4 million, respectively), compared to a base-case of national SIAs every two years. Decreasing SIA frequency to every three years in the South while increasing to every year in the just the North-west, or in all Northern regions would prevent more cases (2.1 or 5.0 million, respectively), but would increase vaccination costs (add $3.5 million or $34.6 million, respectively), for $1.65 or $6.99 per case averted, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling shows how increasing SIA frequency in Northern regions, where RI is low and birth rates are high, while decreasing frequency in the South of Nigeria would reduce the number of measles cases with relatively little or no increase in vaccination costs. A national vaccination strategy that incorporates regional SIA targeting in contexts with a high level of sub-national variation would lead to improved health outcomes and/or lower costs.

Use of antihistamines and risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmia: a nested case-control study in five European countries from the ARITMO project.

PURPOSE: After regulatory restrictions for terfenadine and astemizole in '90s, only scarce evidence on proarrhythmic potential of antihistamines has been published. We evaluate the risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VA) related to the use of individual antihistamines. METHODS: A matched case-control study nested in a cohort of new users of antihistamines was conducted within the EU-funded ARITMO project. Data on 1997-2010 were retrieved from seven healthcare databases: AARHUS (Denmark), GEPARD (Germany), HSD and ERD (Italy), PHARMO and IPCI (Netherlands) and THIN (UK). Cases of VA were selected and up to 100 controls were matched to each case. The odds ratio (OR) of current use for individual antihistamines (AHs) was estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: For agents largely used to prevent allergic symptoms, such as cetirizine, levocetirizine, loratadine, desloratadine and fexofenadine, we found no VA risk. A statistically significant, increased risk of VA was found only for current use of cyclizine in the pooled analysis (ORadj, 5.3; 3.6-7.6) and in THIN (ORadj, 5.3; 95% CI, 3.7-7.6), for dimetindene in GEPARD (ORadj, 3.9; 1.1-14.7) and for ebastine in GEPARD (ORadj, 3.3; 1.1-10.8) and PHARMO (ORadj, 4.6; 1.3-16.2). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of VA associated with a few specific antihistamines could be ascribable to heterogeneity in pattern of use or in receptor binding profile.