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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008048.].
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Investments in water and sanitation systems are believed to have led to the decline in typhoid fever in developed countries, such that most cases now occur in regions lacking adequate clean water and sanitation. Exploring seasonal and long-term patterns in historical typhoid mortality in the United States can offer deeper understanding of disease drivers. We fit modified Time-series Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models to city-level weekly mortality counts to estimate seasonal and long-term typhoid transmission. We examined seasonal transmission separately by city and aggregated by water source. Typhoid transmission peaked in late summer/early fall. Seasonality varied by water source, with the greatest variation occurring in cities with reservoirs. We then fit hierarchical regression models to measure associations between long-term transmission and annual financial investments in water and sewer systems. Overall historical $1 per capita ($16.13 in 2017) investments in the water supply were associated with approximately 5% (95% confidence interval: 3-6%) decreases in typhoid transmission, while $1 increases in the overall sewer system investments were associated with estimated 6% (95% confidence interval: 4-9%) decreases. Our findings aid in the understanding of typhoid transmission dynamics and potential impacts of water and sanitation improvements, and can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions to reduce the typhoid burden.
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Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/história , Saneamento/métodos , Febre Tifoide/mortalidade , Febre Tifoide/transmissão , Cidades/epidemiologia , História do Século XIX , História do Século XX , Humanos , Saneamento/história , Saneamento/tendências , Estações do Ano , Análise de Sobrevida , Febre Tifoide/história , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Human movement is likely an important risk factor for environmentally-transmitted pathogens. While epidemiologic studies have traditionally focused on household risk factors, individual movement data could provide critical additional information about risk of exposure to such pathogens. We conducted global positioning system (GPS) tracking of urban slum residents to quantify their fine-scale movement patterns and evaluate their exposures to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recruited participants from an ongoing cohort study in an urban slum in Brazil and tracked them for 24 hours at 30-second intervals. Among 172 subjects asked to participate in this cross-sectional study, 130 agreed to participate and 109 had good quality data and were included in analyses. The majority of recorded locations were near participant residences (87.7% within 50 meters of the house), regardless of age or gender. Similarly, exposure to environmental sources of leptospirosis transmission did not vary by age or gender. However, males, who have higher infection rates, visited a significantly larger area during the 24-hour period than did females (34,549m2 versus 22,733m2, p = 0.005). Four male participants had serologic evidence of Leptospira infection during the study period. These individuals had significantly larger activity spaces than uninfected males (61,310m2 vs 31,575m2, p = 0.006) and elevated exposure to rodent activity (p = 0.046) and trash deposits (p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: GPS tracking was an effective tool for quantifying individual mobility in the complex urban slum environment and identifying risk exposures associated with that movement. This study suggests that in addition to source reduction, barrier interventions that reduce contact with transmission sources as slum residents move within their communities may be a useful prevention strategy for leptospirosis.
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Microbiologia Ambiental , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Leptospira , Áreas de Pobreza , Brasil , Cidades , HumanosRESUMO
Genetic analyses can provide information about human evolutionary history that cannot always be gleaned from other sources. We evaluated evidence of selective pressure due to introduced infectious diseases in the genomes of two indigenous southern African San groups-the Khomani who had abundant contact with other people migrating into the region and the more isolated Ju|'hoansi. We used a dual approach to test for increased selection on immune genes compared with the rest of the genome in these groups. First, we calculated summary values of statistics that measure genomic signatures of adaptation to contrast selection signatures in immune genes and all genes. Second, we located regions of the genome with extreme values of three selection statistics and examined these regions for enrichment of immune genes. We found stronger and more abundant signals of selection in immune genes in the Khomani than in the Ju|'hoansi. We confirm this finding within each population to avoid effects of different demographic histories of the two populations. We identified eight immune genes that have potentially been targets of strong selection in the Khomani, whereas in the Ju|'hoansi, no immune genes were found in the genomic regions with the strongest signals of selection. We suggest that the more abundant signatures of selection at immune genes in the Khomani could be explained by their more frequent contact with immigrant groups, which likely led to increased exposure and adaptation to introduced infectious diseases.
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Adaptação Fisiológica , Doenças Transmissíveis , Exposição Ambiental , Genética Populacional , Imunidade/genética , População Negra , Etnicidade , Genômica , Humanos , Seleção Genética , África do SulRESUMO
Using geo-referenced case data, we present spatial and spatio-temporal cluster analyses of the early spread of the 2013-2015 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Dominica, an island in the Caribbean. Spatial coordinates of the locations of the first 417 reported cases observed between December 15th, 2013 and March 11th, 2014, were captured using the Global Positioning System (GPS). We observed a preponderance of female cases, which has been reported for CHIKV outbreaks in other regions. We also noted statistically significant spatial and spatio-temporal clusters in highly populated areas and observed major clusters prior to implementation of intensive vector control programs suggesting early vector control measures, and education had an impact on the spread of the CHIKV epidemic in Dominica. A dynamical identification of clusters can lead to local assessment of risk and provide opportunities for targeted control efforts for nations experiencing CHIKV outbreaks.
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Febre de Chikungunya/epidemiologia , Febre de Chikungunya/transmissão , Vírus Chikungunya/fisiologia , Adulto , Febre de Chikungunya/virologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Dominica/epidemiologia , Feminino , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Espacial , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management.
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Clima , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estações do Ano , TemperaturaRESUMO
Riparian zones are critical for protecting water quality and wildlife, but are often impacted by human activities. Ongoing threats and uncertainty about the effectiveness of buffer regulations emphasize the importance of monitoring riparian buffers through time. We developed a method to rapidly categorize buffer width and landuse attributes using 2007 leaf-on aerial photography and applied it to a 65 km section of the Toccoa River in north Georgia. We repeated our protocol using 1999 leaf-off aerial photographs to assess the utility of our approach for monitoring. Almost half (45%) of the length of the Toccoa River was bordered by buffers less than 50 ft wide in 2007, with agricultural and built-up lands having the smallest buffers. The percentage of river length in each buffer width category changed little between 1999 and 2007, but we did detect a 5% decrease in agricultural land use, a corresponding increase in built-up land use, and an additional 149 buildings within 100 ft of the river. Field verification indicated that our method overestimated buffer widths and forested land use and underestimated built-up land use and the number of buildings within 100 ft of the river. Our methodology can be used to rapidly assess the status of riparian buffers. Including supplemental data (e.g., leaf-off imagery, road layers) will allow detection of the fine-scale impacts underestimated in our study. Our results on the Toccoa River reflect historic impacts, exemptions and variances to regulations, and the ongoing threat of vacation home development. We recommend additional monitoring, improvements in policy, and efforts to increase voluntary protection and restoration of stream buffers.
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Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Georgia , Fotografação , Rios , Fatores de Tempo , ÁrvoresRESUMO
Drosophila melanogaster is widely used to study immune system function in insects. However, little work has been done in D. melanogaster on the effect of temperature on the immune system. Here we describe experiments that demonstrate that cooler temperatures enhance survival after infection and alter expression of immune-related genes in flies. This effect appears to be due not only to the fact that colder temperatures slow down bacterial growth, but also to the beneficial effects of cooler temperature on immune function. We explore the possibility that heat shock proteins, and in particular, Hsp83, may improve immune function at cool temperatures. We have long known that temperature can alter immune responses against microbial pathogens in insects. The approach described here allows us to determine whether this effect is due primarily to temperature-specific effects on the host or on its pathogen. These results suggest that both may be important.