Predictors of persistent moderate and severe food insecurity in a longitudinal survey in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Household food insecurity (HFI) increased in Latin America by 9% between 2019 and 2020. Scant evidence shows who was unable to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to use a Machine Learning (ML) approach to identify consistent and influential predictors of persistent moderate or severe HFI over 2 years. Methods: We use a three-wave longitudinal telephone survey with a probabilistic sample representative of the Mexican population. With a response rate of 51.3 and 60.8% for the second and third waves, the final sample size consisted of 1,074 individuals. The primary outcome was persistent HFI, i.e., respondents who reported moderate or severe HFI in 2021 and 2022. Twelve income-related predictors were measured in 2020, including baseline HFI. We employed 6 supervised ML algorithms to cross-validate findings in models, examined its precision with 4 standard performance indicators to assess precision, and used SHAP values (Shapley Additive exPlanations) to identify influential predictors in each model. Results: Prevalence of persistent moderate/severe HFI in 2021 and 2022 was 8.8%. Models with only a HFI 2020 baseline measure were used as a reference for comparisons; they had an accuracy of 0.79, a Cohen's Kappa of 0.57, a sensitivity of 0.68, and a specificity of 0.88. When HFI was substituted by the suite of socioeconomic indicators, accuracy ranged from 0.70 to 0.84, Cohen's Kappa from 0.40 to 0.67, sensitivity from 0.86 to 0.90, and specificity from 0.75 to 0.82. The best performing models included baseline HFI and socioeconomic indicators; they had an accuracy between 0.81 and 0.92, a Cohen's Kappa between 0.61 and 0.85, a sensitivity from 0.74 to 0.95, and a specificity from 0.85 to 0.92. Influential and consistent predictors across the algorithms were baseline HFI, socioeconomic status (SES), adoption of financial coping strategies, and receiving government support. Discussion: Persistent HFI can be a relevant indicator to identify households that are less responsive to food security policies. These households should be prioritized for innovative government support and monitored to assess changes. Forecasting systems of HFI can be improved with longitudinal designs including baseline measures of HFI and socioeconomic predictors.

Using Household Expenditure Surveys for Comparable and Replicable Nutritional Analysis: Evidence from México.

In this study, we explore how to use household expenditures and income surveys (HEIS) to provide replicable and comparable measures of nutrients availability at the population level. Our method formalizes the common practice in the literature and consists of three steps: identification of relevant food categories, pairing of food contents food groups in HEIS data, and calculation of the typical amount of nutrients by food group. We illustrate the usage of the method with Mexican data and provide a publicly available data set to readily convert food purchases into six nutrients: calories, proteins, vitamins A and C, iron, and zinc. We perform a descriptive analysis of the evolution of nutrients intake among Mexican households between 2008 and 2020, considering differences by income level. Our results reflect the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on nutrient availability in Mexican households, mainly driven by a substantial reduction in the expenditure in food consumed away from home, although for most nutrients the trend was stable over most of the period.

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Abo Blood Group, Atherothrombotic Comorbidities, and COVID-19: A Case-Control Study of their Association in the Mexican Population.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been associated with negative results in patients with A blood group and with a better evolution in O blood group individuals. AIM: Because the evidence regarding ABO blood groups and COVID was empirically not that clear in our country, we tested the association regarding COVID-19 and blood groups. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Adult patients were enrolled in this prospective, case-control, observational multicenter study. Patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were assigned to one of three groups based on the clinical presentation of the infection. Age, gender, ABO and Rh blood groups, body mass index, history of diabetes mellitus or high blood pressure, and smoking were recorded directly or from their clinical charts. ABO blood group was obtained from 5,000 blood donors (50% each gender). Atherothrombotic variables were compared with a nation-wide data collection. RESULTS: A total of 2,416 patients with COVID-19 were included (women:39.6%; men:60.4%). There were no significant differences between cases and controls in terms of age. O blood group was the most frequently found in healthy donors and COVID-19 patients, but this blood group was significantly higher in COVID-19 patients vs. healthy donors. ABO blood group was not associated with the final health status in COVID-19 patients. Obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and smoking were significantly more frequent among COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION: The proposed protective effect of the O blood group in COVID-19 patients could not be reproduced in the Mexican population while some atherothrombotic risk factors had a significant effect on the clinical evolution.

Prevalencia mensual de trastorno de ansiedad generalizada durante la pandemia por Covid-19 en México / Monthly prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico

Resumen: Objetivo: Estimar la prevalencia de ansiedad generalizada (GAD, por sus siglas en inglés) entre abril y junio de 2020. Material y métodos: Diseño transversal repetido basado en la Encovid-19, una serie de encuestas telefónicas mensuales con muestras representativas de México (N= 833-1 674). El cuestionario incluye la escala GAD-2 y en julio se añadió la GAD-7; se examinó su validez interna con análisis factorial confirmatorio y su validez concurrente con variables sociodemográficas. Con la GAD-7 como criterio, se calculó la validez predictiva de la GAD-2. Se estimó la prevalencia mensual con la GAD-2. Resultados: La GAD-7 y la GAD-2 son confiables y válidas. La GAD-2 tiene una sensibilidad de 0.87 y una especificidad de 0.90. La prevalencia mensual se mantuvo alta y estable, entre 30.7 y 32.6%. El GAD se concentró en mujeres, personas desocupadas y de bajo nivel socioeconómico. Conclusiones: El GAD es un problema de salud pública que se agravó con la pandemia por Covid-19.

Abstract: Objective: Estimate the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) from April to June 2020. Materials and methods: Repeated cross-sections design based in the Encovid-19, a series of monthly mobile surveys with representative samples of Mexico (N= 833-1 674). The questionnaire includes the GAD-2 scale, and, in July, the GAD-7 scale was added; we examined its internal validity with confirmatory factor analysis and its concurrent validity with sociodemographic variables. Using GAD-7 as criterion, we analyzed the predictive validity of the GAD-2. We estimated the monthly prevalence with the GAD-2. Results: The GAD-7 and the GAD-2 are reliable and valid. The GAD-2 has a sensitivity of 0.87 and a specificity of 0.90. The monthly prevalence remains high and stable, between 30.7 and 32.6%. GAD concentrated in women, unemployed and persons with low socioeconomic status. Conclusions: GAD is a public health problem that worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic.

[Monthly prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico]. / Prevalencia mensual de trastorno de ansiedad generalizada durante la pandemia por Covid-19 en México.

Objective. Estimate the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) from April to June 2020. Materials and methods. Repeated cross-sections design based in the Encovid-19, a series of monthly mobile surveys with representative samples of Mexico (N= 833-1 674). The questionnaire includes the GAD-2 scale, and, in July, the GAD-7 scale was added; we examined its internal validity with confirmatory factor analysis and its concurrent validity with sociodemographic variables. Using GAD-7 as criterion, we analyzed the predictive validity of the GAD-2. We estimated the monthly prevalence with the GAD-2. Results. The GAD-7 and the GAD-2 are reliable and valid. The GAD-2 has a sensitivity of 0.87 and a specificity of 0.90. The monthly prevalence remains high and stable, between 30.7 and 32.6%. GAD concentrated in women, unemployed and persons with low socioeconomic status. Conclusions. GAD is a public health problem that worsened during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vigilancia de la rabia en murciélagos en la prov. Ciego de Avila

Se analiza la investigación de rabia en muerciélagos en la provicia de Ciego de Avila, Cuba, en el período de 1987 a 1992. Se estudiaron 2987 muestras por el laboratorio nacional de referencia de la República de Cuba, realizándose a cada caso las técnicas de coloración en busca de los corpúsculos de negri, anticuerpos fluorescentes y prueba biológica. Se confirmaron 3 casos en la etapa para el 0.1 porciento de positividad. Se describen los tres casos notificados en murciélagos. (AU)

Evaluación del tratamiento antirrábico en la provincia de Ciego de Avila, Cuba

Se analizan las peronas lesionadas por animales, las tasas de riesgo por municipios en el perído 1981-1998, se desglosan las personas lesionasas por las diferentes especies. Se analiza la observación y la aplicación de los tratamietnos antirrábicos. (AU)