Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa.

Temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission. Recent work has shown that mosquito and parasite biology are influenced not only by average temperature, but also by the extent of the daily temperature variation. Here we examine how parasite development within the mosquito (Extrinsic Incubation Period) is expected to vary over time and space depending on the diurnal temperature range and baseline mean temperature in Kenya and across Africa. Our results show that under cool conditions, the typical approach of using mean monthly temperatures alone to characterize the transmission environment will underestimate parasite development. In contrast, under warmer conditions, the use of mean temperatures will overestimate development. Qualitatively similar patterns hold using both outdoor and indoor temperatures. These findings have important implications for defining malaria risk. Furthermore, understanding the influence of daily temperature dynamics could provide new insights into ectotherm ecology both now and in response to future climate change.

The effect of water turbidity on the near-surface water temperature of larval habitats of the malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae.

Water temperature is an important determinant in many aquatic biological processes, including the growth and development of malaria mosquito (Anopheles arabiensis and A. gambiae) immatures. Water turbidity affects water temperature, as suspended particles in a water column absorb and scatter sunlight and hence determine the extinction of solar radiation. To get a better understanding of the relationship between water turbidity and water temperature, a series of semi-natural larval habitats (diameter 0.32 m, water depth 0.16 m) with increasing water turbidity was created. Here we show that at midday (1300 hours) the upper water layer (thickness of 10 mm) of the water pool with the highest turbidity was on average 2.8 degrees C warmer than the same layer of the clearest water pool. Suspended soil particles increase the water temperature and furthermore change the temperature dynamics of small water collections during daytime, exposing malaria mosquito larvae, which live in the top water layer, longer to higher temperatures.

Low larval vector survival explains unstable malaria in the western Kenya highlands.

Several highland areas in eastern Africa have recently suffered from serious malaria epidemics. Some models predict that, in the short term, these areas will experience more epidemics as a result of global warming. However, the various processes underlying these changes are poorly understood. We therefore investigated malaria prevalence, malaria vector densities and malaria vector survival in a highland area in western Kenya, ranging from approximately 1,550-1,650 m altitude. Although only five adult malaria vectors were collected during 180 light traps and 180 resting collections over a 23-month study period, malaria was prevalent among school children (average parasite prevalence: 10%). During an extensive survey of potential larval habitats, we identified only seven habitats containing Anopheles gambiae Giles s.l. larvae. Their limited number and low larval densities suggested that their contribution to the adult vector population was small. Experiments on adult and larval survival showed that at this altitude, adult mosquitoes survived inside local houses, but that larval development was severely retarded: only 2 of 500 A. gambiae s.l. larvae developed to the pupal stage, whereas all other larvae died prior to pupation. At present, high vector densities are unlikely because of unfavourable abiotic conditions in the area. However, temporary favourable conditions, such as during El Niño years, may increase larval vector survival and may lead to malaria epidemics.