Pleural mesothelioma in Poland: Spatial analysis of malignant mesothelioma prevalence in the period 1999-2013.

Malignant mesothelioma (MM), a rare and very deadly tumour, can be due to asbestos exposure. To better understand the cause of incidence of MM, spatial autocorrelation analysis with reference to the quantity of asbestos-cement products in use and the localisation of former asbestos manufacturing plants was applied. Geostatistical analysis shows that strong spatial clustering of MM incidence (referring to the general population as well as females and males separately) during the period 1999-2013 in the administrative units of Poland (provinces and counties). Incidence hotspots were found to be concentrated primarily in southern Poland but also seen in the county of Szczecin, which stands out in local autocorrelation analysis in north-western Poland. High incidence rates were discovered, in particular with reference to counties around former plants manufacturing asbestos-containing products, mainly asbestos-cement manufacturers. The highest frequency of MM incidence rate was found in within a 55 km radius of plants in or near the towns Trzebinia, Ogrodzieniec and Szczucin in the South, where asbestos-cement products had been manufactured for close to 40 years. Areas with significantly high incidence rates were also discovered in the provinces of Slaskie, Malopolskie and Swietokrzyskie in southern Poland.

Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland.

Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models' assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km2 in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions.

Estimation of the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland.

The unique set of physical and chemical properties has led to many industrial applications of asbestos worldwide; one of them was roof covering. Asbestos is harmful to human health, and therefore its use was legally forbidden. Since in Poland there is no adequate data on the amount of asbestos-cement roofing, the objective of this study was to estimate its quantity on the basis of physical inventory taking with the use of aerial imagery, and the application of selected statistical features. Data pre-processing and analysis was executed in R Statistical Environment v. 3.1.0. Best random forest models were computed; model explaining 72.9% of the variance was subsequently used to prepare the prediction map of the amount of asbestos-cement roofing in Poland. Variables defining the number of farms, number and age of buildings, and regional differences were crucial for the analysis. The total amount of asbestos roofing in Poland was estimated at 738,068,000 m2 (8.2m t). It is crucial for the landfill development programme, financial resources distribution, and application of monitoring policies.